Airline emissions ‘far higher than previous estimates’
By Cahal Milmo
The aviation industry’s failure to curb its soaring carbon emissions could lead
to the “worst case scenario” for climate change, as envisaged by the United Nations.
An unpublished study by the world’s leading experts has revealed that airlines
are pumping 20 per cent more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than estimates
suggest, with total emissions set to reach between 1.2 billion and 1.5 billion
tonnes annually by 2025.
The report, by four government-funded research bodies, is one of the most authoritative
estimates of the growth of pollutants produced by the industry. It was presented
to a conference co-organised by the United States’ Federal Aviation Authority
but not given a wider audience.
Combining data produced by the leading emissions-modelling laboratories in the
US, Britain and France, the study found that the number of people seriously affected
by aircraft noise will rise from 24 million in 2000 to 30.3 million by 2025, despite
the introduction of quieter jets, and that the amount of nitrogen oxides around
airports, produced by aircraft engines, will rise from 2.5 million tonnes in 2000
to 6.1 million tonnes in 2025.
Jeff Gazzard, a spokesman for the Aviation Environment Federation, the group
that uncovered the report, said: “Growth of CO2 emissions on this scale will comfortably
outstrip any gains made by improved technology and ensure aviation is an even
larger contributor to global warming by 2025 than previously thought. Governments
must take action to put a cap on air transport’s unrestrained growth.”
The report, Trends in Global Noise and Emissions From Commercial Aviation for
2000 through 2025, was presented last year to the USA/Europe Air Traffic Management
Seminar in Barcelona but withheld from wider publication.
Its authors at the US Department of Transport, the European air traffic management
body, Eurocontrol, Manchester Metropolitan University and the technology company
QinetiQ predict that CO2 will rise from its current level of 670 million tonnes
to up to 1.48 billion tonnes by 2025. This exceeds the previous estimate, made
in 2004, of 1.03 billion tonnes by 2025. The growth in aviation CO2 means that
the highest forecast for aviation emissions produced by the International Panel
on Climate Change will be met or exceeded.
The aviation industry, which is exempt from the Kyoto protocol on reducing greenhouse
gases, claims the introduction of new technology over the next 25 years means
that the contribution of flying to global CO2 emissions will rise from 2 per cent
of the total to 5 per cent by 2050. Critics claim the true figure will be much
higher because it does not include the CO2 reductions being made elsewhere.
The International Air Transport Association, which represents 240 airlines, said
it was working towards producing binding targets to reduce CO2 emissions. “With
fuel costs doubling in the last year, airlines already have an incentive to work
towards greater efficiency,” a spokesman said. “There has been a 70 per cent improvement
in fuel efficiency in the last four decades. Aviation is a benchmark of environmental
responsibility for others to follow.”
UK carbon emissions
Total: 556.2 million tonnes
*Power generation: 220.8m
*Transport (including aviation): 133.5m
*Transport (not including aviation): 96m
*Public sector: 10.5m
Figures for 2006, Defra
Aviation for 2000 through 2025,” click here.