Government to be challenged by the CCC over expanding aviation industry
9.9.2009 (Times)
by Ben Webster, Environment Editor
The Government is likely to be challenged by its own climate change advisory
body on its decision to approve a third runway at Heathrow and permit a doubling
in air travel by 2030, The Times has learnt.
The Committee on Climate Change believes that the rapid expansion of air travel is inconsistent with the Government’s
legally binding commitment to cut overall carbon dioxide emissions by 80% on 1990
levels by 2050.
It believes that allowing aviation to expand at the rate proposed by the Government
could place an unacceptable burden on other industries to achieve the cut.
The committee is also concerned that the expansion of air travel will undermine
efforts to persuade developing countries to agree emissions cuts at the UN summit
on climate change in December. When approving the third runway in principle in January, the Government made
it conditional on the aviation industry meeting its own target of cutting emissions
to 2005 levels by 2050. Ministers avoided using the 1990 baseline because this
could have forced airlines to halve the present number of flights.
Air passenger numbers grew from 102 million in 1990 to 240 million in 2007 and
are due to reach 470 million by 2030.
In a letter published today, [ click here for letter ] the committee says that if aviation emissions are at 2005 levels in 2050 the rest of the economy will
have to make 90% cuts to achieve the overall 80% emissions reduction target.
The committee will publish a review of UK aviation and its impact on climate
change on December 8, one week before Gordon Brown and other world leaders are due to sign a global
treaty on cutting emissions.
In an interview with The Times David Kennedy, the committee’s chief executive, said: “It wasn’t specified in our terms of
reference but we could take it upon ourselves to talk about Heathrow in our UK
aviation review.”
He said that the review would discuss what level of increase in air travel could
be accommodated by Britain’s legally binding carbon budgets.
“Can you double demand? You can imagine a world where you have more people flying
because you have efficient planes running on biofuel. But whether these things
are plausible, we will report back in December.”
Virgin Atlantic is among a handful of airlines that have experimented with using
a tiny percentage of biofuel mixed with conventional jet fuel in test flights
without passengers. However, industry analysts believe that concerns about safety
and a lack of sustainable biofuel sources mean that it is likely to play only a minor
role in powering future aircraft.
In its letter to the Government today the committee says that airlines cannot rely indefinitely on offsetting their emissions by buying allowances.
The letter says: “The aviation industry should also plan for deep cuts in gross
CO2 emissions.” It adds that unless a global deal is reached on cutting aviation
emissions, airlines will account for one fifth of all CO2 emissions by 2050.
Vicky Wyatt, a Greenpeace climate change campaigner, said that any government would find
it almost impossible to build a third runway at Heathrow if it followed the committee’s
advice.
“Even without the proposed expansion of aviation, the UK industry is going to
find it very hard to offset its emissions through trading carbon, not least because
we already fly more than any other nation on Earth and other industries such as
the power sector would have to reduce their emissions even further to create room
for the aviation sector to grow even more. Electricity consumers could end up
footing the bill.”
The Conservatives have said that they would cancel plans for new runways at Heathrow
and Stansted and would also oppose the expansion of Gatwick. However, the party
has refused to say whether it would limit the overall growth of UK aviation.
Planes ‘to reset climate targets’
The UK may have to cut emissions of greenhouse gases by 90% by 2050 so the aviation
sector can continue to grow.
That is the warning from the government’s official climate advisers, the Climate
Change Committee (CCC).
It would mean even bigger cuts than the 80% drop on 1990 levels already planned
for households and industry in Britain.
But the committee also says global aviation emissions should be capped during
the forthcoming Copenhagen climate talks.
The committee was asked by government to advise on what should be done about
emissions from aviation.
 |
In a letter to the Transport Secretary Lord Adonis and the Climate Secretary
Ed Miliband, the committee says the aviation industry will have to cut emissions
from planes back to their 2005 level by 2050.
That is much more permissive than the overall UK target of cutting emissions
80% on 1990 levels by 2050.
The failure of aviation to play its full part could mean that the rest of the
economy has to reduce its emissions by 90% instead of 80%.
This 90% target is so ambitious that it might be easier for some sectors to make
the leap to zero carbon emissions rather than trying to whittle down pollution
decade by decade.
And some analysts think this might be an easier and cheaper approach than reaching
a 90% cut in stages.
The options
The committee members see alternatives.
Planes, they say, might use biofuels or aviation might cut emissions below 2005
levels through new technology.
Plane operators might also be able to buy emissions permits in international
emissions trading.
But all of these options carry difficulties of their own.
| | FROM THE TODAY PROGRAMME
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Biofuels compete with crops for land and are already in demand for fuelling cars.
It looks to be a huge task for aviation to restrict emissions to 2005 levels,
even without trying to go further.
And the emissions trading system in which rich countries pay poor ones to clean
up their pollution may prove to be a stop-gap solution which could be defunct
by 2050.
The CCC’s recommendations are designed to reduce aviation emissions in line with
a global reduction in emissions of all greenhouse gases of 50% by 2050.
It says that, if left unchecked, global aviation could account for 15-20% of
all the manmade CO2 produced in 2050.
The committee advises that:
- All CO2 emissions from aviation should be capped, either through a global aviation
deal or by including international aviation emissions in national emission reduction
targets; - Any international agreement to reduce emissions should be no less than the EU’s
target of a 5% reduction in net emissions from 2013-2020; - Emissions allowances for aviation in the EU emissions trading scheme, says the
CCC, should be fully auctioned to prevent windfall profits for airlines; - Funds should be found for radical innovation in engine, airframe and fuel technology;
- Additional non-CO2 gases from aviation are contributing to global warming. The
effects of these should be addressed within a global deal on aviation.
The CCC’s Chief Executive David Kennedy said: “It is vital that an agreement
capping global aviation emissions is part of a Copenhagen deal.
“We are calling for a cap that would not require people to fly less than today,
but would constrain aviation emissions growth going forward.”
The right-leaning think-tank Policy Exchange recently proposed that world production
of sustainable biofuels should be diverted from cars to planes in order to overcome
the lack of current breakthrough technologies in aviation.
| |  The only way to make the deep cuts in aviation emissions that we need is to stopbuilding new runways, like the one at Heathrow  Vicky Wyatt, Greenpeace climate change campaigner |
Greenpeace climate change campaigner Vicky Wyatt said: “Any government of whatever
stripe, were they to follow the committee’s advice, would find it almost impossible
to build a third runway at Heathrow.
as the power sector would have to reduce their emissions even further to create
room for the aviation sector to grow even more. Electricity consumers
“The only way to make the deep cuts in aviation emissions that we need is to
stop building new runways, like the one at Heathrow.”
Secretary of the CCC, David Kennedy, told the BBC it would discuss Heathrow as
part of a deeper review on aviation due later in the year, but that it was by
no means clear whether or not it would make policy recommendations on the expansion
of the airport.
Meanwhile, the Times newspaper (link to story) has reported that passengers will face new taxes to halt the rise in aviation
pollution, but Mr Kennedy said under the current EU emissions trading scheme (EUETS),
supported by the UK government, taxes would rise very gently.
In the first decade they would be barely noticeable, he said: “Under the current
regime it is likely that in about 30 years taxes would have risen sufficiently
to make us think about whether we want to take that third long-haul flight of
the year.”
The trading scheme currently proposes giving airlines 85% of their emissions
permits free of charge.
The committee recommended that airlines should have to buy all their permits
at auction to prevent them making a windfall profit.
Mr Kennedy said there was no evidence that this would double the cost of tickets
for passengers.
When power firms were given free permits under the EUETS they made billions of
pounds in windfall profits by passing on the notional market cost of the emissions
permits to consumers even though they had not had to pay for the permits themselves.
Mr Kennedy declined to comment on whether the committee would make recommendations
on further aviation taxes in its forthcoming review, but the BBC understands that
as car taxes are much higher per tonne of CO2 produced the committee may compare
the taxes on planes and cars.
Copenhagen deal”
CCC chief executive
No immediate increase in flight taxes, transport secretary says |
News Item added: 9th September 2009 |
| Lord Adonis has ruled out immediate tax rises for airline passengers despite calls from the government’s advisory body on climate change for radical cuts in aviation industry emissions. Adonis said forthcoming increases in APD would cover British aviation’s contribution to global warming, but admitted future increases could not be ruled out because they would be kept under review by the Treasury. He defended the decision to allow a 3rd runway at Heathrow. (Guardian) |
aviation industry is not “off the hook” when it comes to reducing CO2 levels.
David Kennedy said that the plan to cut emissions of greenhouse gases by 90% is
“extremely challenging” and will only be met by more efficient aircraft, the use
of biofuels and constraining the growth in demand. The CCC has said that households
and motorists will have to make bigger cuts in emissions than previously estimated
— to allow people to continue to fly.
it was “hugely challenging” to say that aircraft emissions in 2050 should be the
same as those in 2005, when it is estimated that there will be three times as
many air travellers. And he added that it was “unrealistic” to tell developing
countries that they cannot use air freight to deliver their agricultural crops.