IATA – global air passengers up 4.3% in November compared to a year earlier

IATA data for November show 4.3% more passengers globally than November 2010, about 2% more than in January 2011,  though 0.2% less than in October 2011. Tony Tyler said continuing economic uncertainty is likely to mean market shortcomings deepening in 2012. Globally, passenger load factors fell to 76.3% from 78.5% in October. This shows that the weakness in passenger demand is outpacing airlines’ ability to adjust capacity accordingly. In Europe demand grew 4.9% compared to the previous November while capacity increased by 5.3%. 



Air Transport Markets Weaken in November

30.12.2011 (IATA press release)

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced global traffic results for November showing a softening in passenger markets while air cargo markets remained weak compared to levels attained earlier in the year.

Passenger traffic was 4.3% above November 2010 levels but this is skewed as November 2010 was a particularly weak month.  The softening in passenger markets becomes apparent when comparing to the previous month (October 2011). This shows a 0.5% decline on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

Freight markets were 3.1% below November 2010 levels despite a 1.1% increase on October 2011 performance.

“Weak global economic performance is being reflected in air transport markets. Freight markets have contracted some 4% compared to January. Although passenger markets have had some growth relative to the beginning of the year – about 2%– the trend has been both soft and volatile. Continuing economic uncertainty will likely mean market shortcomings deepening as we enter 2012,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

Globally, passenger load factors have fallen sharply to 76.3% from 78.5% in October. This shows that the weakness in passenger demand is outpacing airlines’ ability to adjust capacity accordingly. Regional differences are sharp. While North American carriers saw a 0.8% decline in travel, carriers in the Middle East experienced a 10.1% increase, followed by 9.0% for Latin American airlines.
.

Nov 2011 vs. Nov 2010 RPK Growth  ASK Growth PLF FTK Growth AFTK Growth
International                     4.0% 5.2% 74.6 -3.8% 1.9%
Domestic 4.7% 2.8% 79.2 2.0% 1.9%
Total Market 4.3% 4.3% 76.3 -3.1% 1.9%

 

YTD 2011 vs. YTD 2010 RPK Growth  ASK Growth PLF FTK Growth AFTK Growth
International                     6.9% 8.3% 77.5 -0.5% 5.3%
Domestic 4.2% 3.0% 79.4 -2.2% -0.1%
Total Market 5.9% 6.3% 78.2 -0.7% 4.1%

 [These figures are for domestic and international air passengers].

 

International Passenger Markets

International travel markets continue to be weaker than domestic markets. Compared to October, international demand contracted by 1.5% while domestic demand grew by 1.3%.

  • North American airlines saw international demand shrink by 1.2% (compared to November 2010), roughly in line with a 1.0% reduction in capacity.  The fourth quarter uptick in the US economy has yet to be reflected in passenger markets.
  • Latin American and the Middle Eastern carriers recorded the strongest year-on-year growth at 8.8% and 9.8% respectively. For both regions, capacity increases outstripped the growth in demand with Middle Eastern carriers growing their capacity by 10.4% and Latin American carriers by 11.4%. Latin American economies have remained strong with robust trade activity. Middle Eastern airlines have seen a gain in market share on long-haul markets through price competitive products.
  • European airlines continued to face the weakest market outlook due to the uncertainty in the Euro-zone.  Demand grew 4.9% compared to the previous November while capacity increased by 5.3%. This is a steep change from the 6.4% demand growth recorded for October on a capacity increase of 8.1%. Growth in travel has been supported by business travel on the back of export strength in economies such as Germany.
  • Asia-Pacific airlines reported 2.4% growth in year-on-year demand which is less than half the 5.4% growth in capacity. The region’s carriers recorded a load factor of 73.3%.
  • African carriers reported 2.6% growth in demand. While this is twice the 1.3% capacity expansion, the region still recorded the weakest load factors of 66.2%.

Domestic Passenger Markets

Overall domestic performance was better than that of international markets with 4.7% year-on-year growth in November and an average load factor of 79.2%. Sharp differences remained between the major markets:

  • US domestic demand fell by 0.8% (year-on-year). Capacity cuts of 3.4% resulted in the strongest load factor of 83.4%.
  • Chinese domestic demand showed the strongest year-on-year growth at 17.2%. This is in excess of the 13.3% growth in capacity and resulted in a load factor of 80.7%.
  • Demand in the Indian domestic market grew by 10.7%, which is well below the 17.3% expansion in capacity. Load factors stood at 76.8%.
  • Brazil recorded 9.4% year-on-year growth in demand which was relatively in line with the 10.3% increase in capacity. Load factors stood at 65.7% for the month.
  • The post-earthquake and tsunami recovery in the Japanese market stagnated in November. Demand was 10.7% below levels attained in the previous year. Despite capacity cuts of 9%, Japan still recorded the weakest domestic load factor at 65.4%.

Air Freight (Domestic and International)

Air freight markets continued their decline in line with weak economic performance and falling business confidence. International markets declined by 3.8%. This was offset by 2.0% growth in domestic markets. Nonetheless, system wide demand shrank by 3.1% in comparison with November 2010.

  • International freight load factors have declined 6 percentage points from their peak in mid-2010. While freighter capacity has been adjusted to meet demand, belly cargo capacity follows the trend in passenger demand.
  • Asia-Pacific carriers have seen the weakest demand performance driven by falling demand for Asian manufactured goods from US and European consumers. The region’s carriers saw the market decline by 6.4%. European carriers reported a 4.6% fall in demand reflecting continued uncertainty associated with the Euro-zone crisis. North American carriers’ operations were largely unchanged from the previous year with only 0.2% growth.
  • The Middle East and Latin American carriers delivered the strongest cargo performance with 4.6% and 4.0% growth respectively.
  • African carriers reported a 1.7% year-on-year decline.

The Bottom Line

“The year-end holiday season reminds us all of the importance of connectivity and how aviation is a force for good in the world. Global supply chains bring holiday goods to markets. Millions of people are reunited with family and friends. Millions more embark on journeys of discovery or rest and relaxation. Early in the New Year they will be joined by business travelers seeking to grow their businesses by exploring new market opportunities,” said Tyler.

“This year the story of aviation’s importance is even more compelling as governments around the world seek solutions to economic uncertainty. Economic growth is the only durable solution. Aviation can be a catalyst for that growth. But that depends on governments allowing airlines to get on with the business of providing global connectivity. The New Year’s resolution for every government with respect to aviation should be to stop over-taxation or mis-regulation of this vital economic driver,” said Tyler.

IATA is estimating the airline industry will make a collective profit of $6.9 billion in 2011 for a net margin of 1.2%. IATA forecasts that this will fall to $3.5 billion in 2012 (0.6% net margin). But the association has warned that the downside risk of the Euro-zone crisis failing to be resolved could lead to losses in excess of $8 billion.

View November traffic results  in detail

 

 


Monthly traffic results – monthly press releases from IATA

 

Below are IATA figures for November – over the past 5 years (they only give % change, not the actual numbers):

[The figures below are for international passengers only, excluding domestic].

Nov 2011 vs. Nov 2010 RPK Growth ASK Growth PLF
Africa 2.6% 1.3% 66.2
Asia/Pacific 2.4% 5.4% 73.3
Europe 4.9% 5.3% 75.4
Latin America 8.8% 11.4% 75.5
Middle East 9.8% 10.4% 73.7
North America -1.2% -1.0% 77.9
Industry 4.0% 5.2% 74.6

from 30 December 2011
Air Transport Markets Weaken in November

Nov 2010 vs. Nov 2009 RPK Growth ASK Growth PLF
Africa 16.4% 13.5% 68.3
Asia/Pacific 5.8% 5.9% 75.6
Europe 7.3% 7.1% 75.7
Latin America 0.0% -2.6% 77.5
Middle East 16.7% 15.8% 74.3
North America 9.5% 9.5% 78.1
Industry 8.2% 7.8% 75.6

from 30 December  2010
Air Traffic Dipped in November

 

Nov 09 vs. Nov 08 RPK Growth ASK Growth PLF
Africa -2.1% 1.2% 67.6
Asia/Pacific 5.1% -2.3% 76.0
Europe -3.0% -3.9% 74.7
Latin America 8.2% 2.1% 75.8
Middle East 16.5% 15.4% 73.9
North America -3.0% -6.7% 78.1
Industry 2.1% -1.4% 75.4

from 30 December 2009
Continued Traffic Improvement – But Much Ground Still to be Recovered

 

Nov 2008 vs. Nov 2007 RPK Growth ASK Growth PLF
Africa -1.6% 2.5% 67.1
Asia/Pacific -9.7% -5.1% 71.6
Europe -3.4% -0.7% 73.4
Latin America 3.3% 7.6% 71.5
Middle East 5.6% 7.7% 72.4
North America -4.8% -0.8% 75.2
Industry -4.6% -1.0% 72.7

from 30 December 2008
International Cargo Down 13.5% in November -Passenger Declines by 4.6%-

 

Nov 2007 vs. Nov 2006 RPK Growth ASK Growth PLF
Africa 5.8% 6.4% 67.6
AsIa/Pacific 8.8% 7.7% 75.3
Europe 7.6% 6.1% 75.0
Latin America 20.1% 15.9% 74.8
Middle East 18.3% 11.9% 74.5
North America 7.6% 6.7% 78.7
Industry 9.3% 7.6% 75.4

from 4 January 2008
Passenger Demand Surges to 18-month HighPassenger Demand Surges to 18-month High

 


[TKP – stands for Passenger “Tonne Kilometres Performed”

Definition
The sum of the products obtained by multiplying the number of passengers, freight and mail loads carried on each flight stage by the stage (one TKP is a metric tonne of revenue load carried one kilometre). ]

IATA data on Traffic volumes
Passenger growth annually, tkp, %       Sched passenger numbers, millions

2003                          2.3%                                1,849

2004                         14.9                                   2,064

2005                           7.0                                   2,211

2006                           5.0                                   2,325

2007                           6.4%                              2,518

2008                          1.5                                   2,507

2009                          -2.1                                 2,479

2010                           7.3                                 2,681

2011                           6.1%                              2,840

2012 (estimate)     4.0%  to 0.0%                2,948    to   2,834


Air passengers by region:

(RPK stands for Revenue Passenger Kilometer – measures actual passenger traffic)

Nov 2008
International passenger traffic market shares by region in terms of RPK are:

Europe 34.2%, Asia Pacific 31.1%, North America 18.8%, Middle East 9.1%, Latin America 4.4%, Africa 2.4%


Nov 2009
International passenger traffic market shares by region in terms of RPK are:

Europe 34.9%, Asia-Pacific 29.6%, North America 17.8%, Middle East 11.4%, Latin America 4.4%, Africa 1.8%

—-
Nov 2010
International passenger traffic market shares by region in terms of RPK are:

Europe 37.6%, Asia-Pacific 28.8%, North America 14.2%, Middle East 11.5%, Latin America 4.1%, Africa 3.8%.

—-
Nov 2011
Total passenger traffic market shares by region of carriers in terms of RPK are:

Europe 28.3%, Asia-Pacific 28.9%, North America 27.9%, Middle East 7.3%, Latin America 5.3%, Africa 2.3%.