The myth of the global warming ‘pause’ – actually due to gaps in data on Arctic temperatures
Scientists can now explain the “pause” in global warming that sceptics have used to bolster their arguments against anthropogenic climate change. Sceptics had claimed we have nothing to fear from climate change because it has stopped being a problem. A new study has found that global temperatures have not flat-lined over the past 15 years, as weather station records have been suggesting, but have in fact continued to rise as fast as previous decades, during which we have seen an unprecedented acceleration in global warming. Two university scientists have found that the “pause” or “hiatus” in global temperatures can be largely explained by a failure of climate researchers to record the dramatic rise in Arctic temperatures over the past decade or more.They have found a way of estimating Arctic temperatures from satellite readings. Getting Arctic readings has been difficult, due to seasonal melting so fixed stations are more difficult. When these readings are included, the so-called pause effectively disappeared. NOAA monthly temperature data on land surface, ocean surface and combined land ocean show recent years have been much warmer than previous averages.
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Updated data from NOAA showing the months of March, April, May and June 2015 to be among the hottest ever recorded.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201506
and updated table showing monthly temperature records, from NOAA, over recent years. Summaried-NOAA-data-2009-to-Oct-2013 and Apr May Jun 2015
Exposed: The myth of the global warming ‘pause’
18 November 2013
Scientists can now explain the “pause” in global warming that sceptics have used to bolster their arguments. Sceptics had claimed we have nothing to fear from climate change because it has stopped being a problem.
A new study has found that global temperatures have not flat-lined over the past 15 years, as weather station records have been suggesting, but have in fact continued to rise as fast as previous decades, during which we have seen an unprecedented acceleration in global warming.
The findings will undermine the arguments of leading sceptics, such as the former Chancellor Lord Lawson, who have criticised scientists from the Met Office and other climate organisations for not accepting that global warming has stopped since about 1998.
Two university scientists have found that the “pause” or “hiatus” in global temperatures can be largely explained by a failure of climate researchers to record the dramatic rise in Arctic temperatures over the past decade or more.
When Kevin Cowtan of York University and Robert Way of Ottawa University found a way of estimating Arctic temperatures from satellite readings, the so-called pause effectively disappeared and the global warming signal returned as strong as before.
The paucity of surface-temperature records in the remote and inaccessible Arctic has long been recognised as a problem for global estimates, not least by the Met Office itself.
However, the scale of the Arctic warming highlighted by Dr Cowtan and Mr Way has surprised seasoned climate researchers.
“The problem with the polar areas lacking data coverage has been known for a long time, but I think this study has basically solved it,” said Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
He added: “People will argue about the details, as is normal in science, but I think basically this will hold up to scrutiny.”
Read more: Gaps in data on Arctic temperatures account for the ‘pause’ in global warming
Q&A: What is the global warming ‘pause’ and does it mean we’re off the hook?
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NOAA monthly temperature data
The table Summarised NOAA data 2009 to Oct 2013 shows NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration) data on global temperatures over the past few years (just data 2009 to October 2013 shown – put together by AirportWatch).
| Combined land and ocean temperatures | Average ocean surface temperature | Average global land surface temperature | |
| Oct-13 | 7th warmest | 8th warmest | 8th |
| Sep-13 | 4th warmest | 4th warmest | 6th |
| Aug-13 | 4th warmest | joint 1st with 1998, 2003, 2005 and 2009 | 11th warmest |
| Jul-13 | 6th warmest | 5th warmest | 8th warmest |
| Jun-13 | 5th warmest | 10th warmest | 3rd warmest |
| May-13 | 3rd warmest | 5th warmest | 3rd warmest |
| Apr-13 | 13th warmest April | 7th warmest April | 17th warmest April |
| Mar-13 | 10th | 9th | 11th warmest |
| Feb-13 | 9th warmest | 8th | 11th warmest |
| Jan-13 | 9th warmest | 8th | 13th |
| All of 2012 | 7th warmest | 10th warmest | 10th warmest |
| Dec-12 | 18th | 6th warmest | 49th warmest (ie. very cold) |
| Nov-12 | 5th warmest and the 10 warmest Novembers have been in the past 12 years | 6th warmest | 6th warmest |
| Oct-12 | 5th warmest | tied 4th warmest | 8th warmest |
| Sep-12 | 1st warmest | tied with 1997 as 2nd warmest | 3rd warmest |
| Aug-12 | 4th warmest | 5th warmest | 2nd warmest |
| Jul-12 | 4th warmest | 7th warmest | 3rd warmest |
| Jun-12 | 4th warmest | 10th warmest | 1st warmest |
| May-12 | 2nd warmest | 10th warmest | 1st warmest |
| Apr-12 | 3rd warmest | 11th warmest | 2nd warmest |
| Mar-12 | 16th warmest (March 2012 is the coolest March since 1999 ) | 14th warmest – tied with March 1988 and March 1990 | 18th warmest |
| Feb-12 | 22nd warmest | 12th warmest | 37th warmest – coolest February since 1994 |
| Jan-12 | 19th warmest | 17th warmest | 28th warmest |
| All of 2011 | tied 1997 as the 11th warmest – 35th consecutive year, since 1976, that the yearly global temperature was above average. | 11th warmest | 8th warmest |