Airports Commission has published 4 sets of airport level passenger forecasts 2011 to 2050

The Airports Commission is basing its advice to the government, that a new runway is needed over coming decades (not in the short term) on future passenger forecasts. In its Interim Report, on 17th December, the Commission set out its thinking on forecasts, with and without more runway capacity (no new runways, or one or two more) both with current theoretical constraints like the EU Emissions Trading System, and with more stringent controls to actually attempt to limit UK aviation emissions to their 2005 level, by 2050 – though allowing them to rise higher than that level in the interim.  The Commission has now released its forecasts for its 4 scenarios, a matrix of carbon traded and carbon capped, with capacity constrained by no new runway, and with a new runway. They have also published estimates for Paris, Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Schiphol airports, from 2011 to 2050. At the extremes the forecasts range from UK air passengers by 2050 being between 178% to 199%  higher in 2050 than in 2013. The figures range, for Heathrow, from passengers being 127% to 195% higher in 2050 than in 2013. For Gatwick the forecasts range from 136% to 153% higher in 2050 than in 2013. 
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The Airports Commission’s Interim Report (December 2013) is at 

Airports Commission: interim report

PDF, 4.41MB, 228 pages

On their four scenarios the interim report says:

How the model has been used

4.9 The Commission has used the updated model to develop four core forecasts:

1) Carbon traded, capacity unconstrained.   (ie. ETS with new runway)

This represents total potential demand for UK aviation, in the absence of any constraints on airport capacity or on aviation emissions. It assumes that aviation continues to participate in existing emissions trading schemes, such as the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS),
so passengers face a carbon cost, but no specific emissions level is targeted. It is broadly equivalent to the DfT’s unconstrained demand forecast.

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2) Carbon traded, capacity constrained.  (ie. ETS with no new runway)

This is the same as the first forecast, except that it assumes that existing constraints on UK airport capacity persist throughout the forecast period. The difference between this forecast and the first allows the Commission to estimate the scale of unmet demand at national,
regional and airport level, and the rate at which airports would fill up in the absence of any limit on carbon emissions. This forecast is broadly equivalent to the DfT constrained forecast.

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3) Carbon capped, capacity unconstrained.  (ie. higher carbon cost with new runway)

This represents the level of aviation demand consistent with the CCC’s [Committee on Climate Change’s] current assessment of how UK climate targets can be met. It includes a higher modelled carbon price, which ensures that forecast emissions return to 2005 levels by 2050, but assumes no constraints on airport capacity. It is broadly equivalent to the CCC’s ‘likely’ scenario, set out in its 2009 report “Meeting the UK aviation target – options for reducing emissions to 2050”.

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4) Carbon capped, capacity constrained. (ie. higher carbon cost without new runway)

This forecast assumes both a higher modelled carbon price, as in (3), and the continuation of existing constraints on UK airport capacity, as in (2). It allows the Commission to estimate how existing airport capacity would be used if further policies were introduced to return aviation emissions to 2005 levels by 2050.

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On 20th January 2014 the Commission issued information on its forecasts.

Airports Commission: airport level passenger forecasts 2011 to 2050

The date in spreadsheets are at

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/airports-commission-airport-level-passenger-forecasts-2011-to-2050


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The tables below are simplified (by AirportWatch) versions of the much larger documents on the  Airports Commission website).

1) Carbon traded, capacity unconstrained.                                       (ie. ETS with new runway)

This represents total potential demand for UK aviation, in the absence of any constraints on airport capacity or on aviation emissions. It assumes that aviation continues to participate in existing emissions trading schemes, such as the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS),
so passengers face a carbon cost, but no specific emissions level is targeted. It is broadly equivalent to the DfT’s unconstrained demand forecast.

Carbon traded Passengers (rounded to nearest million)
Capacity unconstrained  
Modelled Airport 2011 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2050 number as % of 2013 number By contrast the actual passenger numbers for 2005  (CAA data)
Aberdeen 2 2 3 3 4 5 250%
Belfast International 4 4 5 6 8 9 225%
Belfast City 3 2 3 4 5 6 300%
Birmingham 9 9 10 12 15 20 222%
Bournemouth 1 1 1 1 2 2 200%
Bristol 5 5 6 8 10 10 200%
Cardiff 1 1 1 1 1 2 200%
East Midlands 4 3 3 4 5 7 233%
Edinburgh 8 8 10 13 17 20 250%
Exeter 1 1 1 1 2 2 200%
Gatwick 33 32 34 37 42 49 153% 32,693,000
Glasgow 7 7 7 9 10 12 171%
Heathrow 77 81 99 119 136 158 195%  67,683,300
Humberside 0 0 1 1 1 1
Inverness 1 1 1 1 1 2 200%
Leeds/Bradford 3 3 4 6 8 9 300%
Liverpool 5 5 5 5 6 7 140%
London City 3 3 4 6 7 9 300%
Luton 10 9 10 15 18 19 211%
Manchester 20 19 25 33 38 47 247%
Newcastle 4 4 4 5 6 7 175%
Newquay 0 0 0 0 0 1
Norwich 0 0 0 1 1 1
Southend 0 1 1 2 2 2 200%
Southampton 2 1 2 2 2 2 200%
Stansted 18 18 21 25 30 34 189%
Teesside 0 0 0 0 0 0
Blackpool 0 0 0 0 0 1
Doncaster Sheffield 1 1 1 1 1 1 100%
Prestwick 1 1 2 2 1 1 100%
UK total 223 225 261 323 381 448 199% 227,413,000
Paris 56 56 66 81 93 110 196%
Amsterdam 41 40 45 56 66 78 195%
Frankfurt 52 52 59 73 92 115 221%
Dubai 44 45 53 66 80 111 247%
50.2% of  UK traffic at Heathrow + Gatwick in 2013
46.2% of UK traffic at Heathrow + Gatwick in 2050
Total passengers in 2013 (minus Heathrow + Gatwick) = 112 million using the other UK airports
Total passengers in 2050 (minus Heathrow + Gatwick) =  241 million using the other UK airports..

ie. 129 million more using airports other than Heathrow + Gatwick in 2050 than in 2013

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2) Carbon traded, capacity constrained.                                              (ie. ETS with no new runway)

This is the same as the first forecast, except that it assumes that existing constraints on UK airport capacity persist throughout the forecast period. The difference between this forecast and the first allows the Commission to estimate the scale of unmet demand at national,
regional and airport level, and the rate at which airports would fill up in the absence of any limit on carbon emissions. This forecast is broadly equivalent to the DfT constrained forecast.

Carbon traded Passengers (rounded to nearest million)
Capacity constrained
Modelled Airport 2011 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2050 number as % of 2013 number
Aberdeen 2 2 3 3 4 5 250%
Belfast International 4 4 5 6 8 9 225%
Belfast City 3 2 3 4 5 6 300%
Birmingham 8 10 13 18 26 30 300%
Bournemouth 1 1 1 1 3 4 400%
Bristol 6 5 5 8 10 12 240%
Cardiff 1 1 1 1 1 3 300%
East Midlands 4 3 4 4 6 12 400%
Edinburgh 9 9 10 14 16 19 211%
Exeter 1 1 1 1 1 2 200%
Gatwick 34 33 39 41 44 46 139%
Glasgow 6 6 7 8 9 11 183%
Heathrow 69 71 75 81 83 90 127%
Humberside 0 0 1 1 1 1
Inverness 1 1 1 1 1 2 200%
Leeds/Bradford 3 3 5 8 8 8 267%
Liverpool 5 5 5 6 8 9 180%
London City 3 4 5 7 7 7 175%
Luton 10 9 13 18 18 18 200%
Manchester 20 19 22 28 35 47 247%
Newcastle 4 4 4 5 6 7 175%
Newquay 0 0 0 0 0 1
Norwich 0 0 0 1 1 2
Southend 0 1 2 2 2 2 200%
Southampton 2 2 2 2 4 7 350%
Stansted 18 19 19 26 35 35 184%
Teesside 0 0 0 0 0 0
Blackpool 0 0 0 0 0 1
Doncaster Sheffield 1 1 1 1 1 2 200%
Prestwick 2 2 2 2 2 2 100%
UK total 217 218 248 299 346 400 183%
Paris 57 57 66 81 94 117 205%
Amsterdam 41 40 47 59 71 91 228%
Frankfurt 53 53 64 83 103 114 215%
Dubai 46 49 57 70 86 113 231%
47.7% of passengers using Heathrow + Gatwick in 2013
34% of passengers using Heathrow + Gatwick in 2050
Total passengers in 2013 (minus Heathrow + Gatwick) = 114  million using the other UK airports
Total passengers in 2050 (minus Heathrow + Gatwick) =  264 million using the other UK airports..

ie. 150 million more using airports other than Heathrow + Gatwick in 2050 than in 2013

 

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3)  Carbon capped, capacity  unconstrained

This represents the level of aviation demand consistent with the CCC’s [Committee on Climate Change’s] current assessment of how UK climate targets can be met. It includes a higher modelled carbon price, which ensures that forecast emissions return to 2005 levels by 2050, but assumes no constraints on airport capacity. It is broadly equivalent to the CCC’s ‘likely’ scenario, set out in its 2009 report “Meeting the UK aviation target – options for reducing emissions to 2050”.

Carbon capped Passengers (rounded to nearest million)
Capacity unconstrained
Modelled Airport 2011 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2050 number as % of 2013 number
Aberdeen 2 2 3 3 4 4 200%
Belfast International 4 4 5 6 7 8 200%
Belfast City 3 2 3 3 4 5 250%
Birmingham 9 8 10 10 12 15 188%
Bournemouth 1 1 1 1 0 1 100%
Bristol 5 5 5 7 7 8 160%
Cardiff 1 1 1 1 1 2 200%
East Midlands 4 3 3 4 4 5 167%
Edinburgh 8 8 10 12 14 17 213%
Exeter 1 1 1 1 1 2 200%
Gatwick 33 32 33 32 34 36 113%
Glasgow 7 7 7 8 9 10 143%
Heathrow 77 81 99 114 127 146 180%
Humberside 0 0 1 1 1 1
Inverness 1 1 1 1 1 1 100%
Leeds/Bradford 3 3 4 6 7 8 267%
Liverpool 5 5 5 4 5 6 120%
London City 3 3 4 5 6 7 233%
Luton 10 9 9 13 15 15 167%
Manchester 20 19 25 29 34 38 200%
Newcastle 4 4 4 5 5 6 150%
Newquay 0 0 0 0 0 0
Norwich 0 0 0 0 1 1
Southend 0 1 1 2 2 2 200%
Southampton 2 1 2 2 2 2 200%
Stansted 18 18 21 23 27 30 167%
Teesside 0 0 0 0 0 0
Blackpool 0 0 0 0 0 0
Doncaster Sheffield 1 1 1 1 1 1 100%
Prestwick 1 1 2 1 1 1 100%
UK total 223 224 259 297 332 377 168%
Paris 56 56 65 76 85 97 173%
Amsterdam 41 40 45 51 58 67 168%
Frankfurt 52 52 58 67 80 99 190%
Dubai 44 45 53 62 73 100 222%
50.45% of  UK traffic at Heathrow + Gatwick in 2013
48.28% of  UK traffic at Heathrow + Gatwick in 2050
Total passengers in 2013 (minus Heathrow + Gatwick) = 111 million using the other UK airports
Total passengers in 2050 (minus Heathrow + Gatwick) =  195 million using the other UK airports..

ie. 84 million more using airports other than Heathrow + Gatwick in 2050 than in 2013

 

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4) Carbon capped, capacity constrained.                                            (ie. higher carbon cost without new runway)

This forecast assumes both a higher modelled carbon price, as in (3), and the continuation of existing constraints on UK airport capacity, as in (2). It allows the Commission to estimate how existing airport capacity would be used if further policies were introduced to return aviation emissions to 2005 levels by 2050.


Carbon capped Passengers (rounded to nearest million)
Capacity unconstrained
Modelled Airport 2011 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2050 number as % of 2013 number
Aberdeen 2 2 3 3 4 5 250%
Belfast International 4 4 5 6 7 9 225%
Belfast City 3 2 3 4 4 6 300%
Birmingham 8 10 13 17 24 29 290%
Bournemouth 1 1 1 1 3 4 400%
Bristol 6 5 5 7 9 12 240%
Cardiff 1 1 1 1 1 3 300%
East Midlands 4 3 4 4 5 10 333%
Edinburgh 9 9 10 13 16 19 211%
Exeter 1 1 1 1 1 2 200%
Gatwick 34 33 39 41 43 45 136%
Glasgow 6 6 7 8 9 10 167%
Heathrow 69 71 75 82 83 91 128%
Humberside 0 0 1 1 1 1
Inverness 1 1 1 1 1 2 200%
Leeds/Bradford 3 3 5 7 8 8 267%
Liverpool 5 5 5 6 7 9 180%
London City 3 4 5 6 7 7 175%
Luton 10 9 13 18 18 18 200%
Manchester 20 19 22 28 33 44 232%
Newcastle 4 4 4 5 6 6 150%
Newquay 0 0 0 0 0 0
Norwich 0 0 0 1 1 1
Southend 0 1 2 2 2 2 200%
Southampton 2 2 2 2 4 7 350%
Stansted 18 19 19 25 35 35 184%
Teesside 0 0 0 0 0 0
Blackpool 0 0 0 0 1 1
Doncaster Sheffield 1 1 1 1 1 2 200%
Prestwick 2 2 2 2 2 2 100%
UK total 217 218 247 295 338 389 178%
Paris 57 57 65 80 92 113 198%
Amsterdam 41 40 47 58 69 87 218%
Frankfurt 53 53 64 81 102 113 213%
Dubai 46 49 57 69 84 110 224%
47.7% of passengers using Heathrow + Gatwick in 2013
34.96% of passengers using Heathrow + Gatwick in 2050
Total passengers in 2013 (minus Heathrow + Gatwick) = 114 million using the other UK airports
Total passengers in 2050 (minus Heathrow + Gatwick) =  253 million using the other UK airports..

ie. 139 million more using airports other than Heathrow + Gatwick in 2050 than in 2013

 

 


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Air passengers in 2005

(2005 is the year chosen for the 2050 target, for UK aviation emissions to return to this level. The CCC recommended that passengers may be able to rise by 60% from this level, and air transport movements rise by 55% from this level, and still (perhaps) keep within UK carbon targets. To allow aviation to not cut its carbon emissions from their 2005 level, all other sectors of the economy must cut their emissions by 85% of their 1990 level by 2050.

From CAA data at 

http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=80&pagetype=88&sglid=3&fld=2012Annual

Table 10.3

Airport Passenger numbers for 2005
ABERDEEN            2,851,784
BELFAST CITY (GEORGE BEST)            2,236,977
BELFAST INTERNATIONAL            4,819,512
BIRMINGHAM            9,311,403
BLACKPOOL                376,808
BOURNEMOUTH                829,108
BRISTOL            5,199,220
CARDIFF WALES            1,764,753
DONCASTER SHEFFIELD                600,651
DUNDEE                  48,624
DURHAM TEES VALLEY                901,917
EAST MIDLANDS INTERNATIONAL            4,181,900
EDINBURGH            8,448,604
EXETER                841,683
GATWICK          32,693,005
GLASGOW            8,775,355
HEATHROW          67,683,317
HUMBERSIDE                459,204
INVERNESS                588,773
LEEDS BRADFORD            2,608,721
LIVERPOOL (JOHN LENNON)            4,409,018
LONDON CITY            1,996,397
LUTON            9,134,748
MANCHESTER          22,083,008
MANSTON (KENT INT)                204,016
NEWCASTLE            5,187,182
NEWQUAY                336,982
PRESTWICK            2,404,654
SOUTHAMPTON            1,835,029
SOUTHEND                     5,133
STANSTED          21,991,733
Total passengers at all UK reporting airports in 2005 227,413,000
Number at Heathrow + Gatwick  100,376,322
% of total passengers from Heathrow + Gatwick  44.2%

 

 

60% more passengers than the 2005 level of some 227.4 million would be an extra 132 million, taking the total by 2050 to 363 million approximately. That is the maximum permitted growth under the Committee on Climate Change advice to the UK government: 60% more passengers than in 2005 by 2050, and 55% more flights (presuming carbon savings made by then by the industry).