Heathrow display 2 versions of their “economic benefit” poster – one saying £100 billion, the other “up to £211 billion” … (Over 60 years)
Heathrow airport has two different versions of its massive poster near Terminal 5. They have the same text, with claims of the alleged economic benefits to the UK of a new runway. One poster says “Expand Heathrow and you grow the economy by £100 billion.” And other nearby says “Expand Heathrow and you grow the economy by up to £211 billion.” They cannot both be right. Is this merely a matter of picking wildly different figures out of the air? Heathrow airport responded that: “£100bn was our conservative estimate. When the Airports Commission analysed it they estimated up to £211bn across UK.” What the massive posters fail to say it these purported benefit are not for one year. They are over a 60 year period, 2026 to 2086. ie. not a huge amount per year, (£2 – 3 billion maximum, on a generous estimate) bearing in mind the huge tourism deficit (perhaps £10 – £13 billion per year); or the loss to the Treasury as air travel pays no VAT and no fuel duty, (amounting to perhaps £10 billion per year). But the Airports Commission estimate of £211 billion economic benefit from a new NW Heathrow runway comes with many caveats – by the Commission itself. They say the “results should be interpreted with caution, given the innovative methodology used…” So more that are difficult to substantiate.
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Two huge Heathrow adverts, spotted today by an observant passer by near Terminal 5 on 28th March 2015. They are Heathrow claims about the amount of economic growth that it might bring to the UK if it gets a 3rd runway.
One says it will expand the economy by “£100 billion.” The other identical poster says it will be “up to £211 billion.”
That is actually quite a large difference …. not an insignificant difference … Over £100 billion.
As a local wit commented: “Heathrow cut their UK economy forecast by more than 50% but fail to inform the Davies Commission.”
Heathrow airport, commenting on these two nearby posters up, with entirely different claims about alleged benefits of a new runway, (£100 billion or up to £211 billion) says that: “£100bn was our conservative estimate. When the Airports Commission analysed it they estimated up to £211bn across UK.”
That benefit is over a 60 year period, 2026 to 2086.
Sixty years. . ie. not a huge amount of benefit per year, (£2 – 3 billion maximum, on a generous estimate) bearing in mind the huge tourism deficit (perhaps £10 – £13 billion per year; or the loss to the Treasury as air travel pays no VAT and no fuel duty, amounting to perhaps £10 billion per year).
But the Airports Commission estimate of £211 billion economic benefit from a new NW Heathrow runway comes with many caveats – by the Commission itself. They say the “results should be interpreted with caution.”
