Access to expanded Heathrow could cost £20 billion, TfL warns – maybe £15 billion more from the taxpayer than Commission estimate
Transport for London (TfL) has raised “serious concerns” about congestion and the costs of expansion at Heathrow just weeks before the Airports Commission’s final recommendation is due (end of June?). TFL Response to APPG on Surface Access Feb 2015 In response to questions by Zac Goldsmith, TfL said both Heathrow and Commission had “significantly underestimated” the challenge of improving transport access to the site, with the Airports Commission estimating £5 billion would be enough to make the improvements. TfL believes to provide an optimal level of service, the figure would be nearer to £20 billion, raising questions about who would pay the additional costs. TfL said population growth of 37% by 2050 has also not been taken into account, with regards to the increased pressure on London’s roads and public transport infrastructure, Zac said: “TfL is better placed than any other organisation to understand the effects Heathrow expansion will have on London’s transport network, and it is extraordinary therefore that the Commission never bothered to ask for its assessment. This raises serious questions about the thoroughness and reliability of the Commission’s work. If TfL is right, the taxpayer may end up having to cough up an additional £15 billion to help Heathrow secure its monopoly, in addition to all the associated problems of gridlock, noise and air pollution.”
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Access to new Heathrow would cost £20 billion, Transport for London warns
1.4.2015 (Richmond – Your Local Guardian)
By Laura Proto
Transport for London (TfL) has raised “serious concerns” about congestion and the costs of expansion at Heathrow just weeks before the Airports Commission’s final recommendation is due. [ TFL Response to APPG on Surface Access Feb 2015 ]
TfL said both the airport and Commission HAD “significantly underestimated” the challenge of improving transport access to the site, with the Airports Commission estimating £5bn would be enough to make the improvements.
But TfL believes to provide an optimal level of service, the figure would be nearer to £20bn, raising questions about who would pay the additional costs.
The commission said building a third runway and its related assets would cost £18.5bn, excluding surface access.
A population growth of 37 per cent by 2050 has also not been taken into account in regards to the increased pressure on London’s roads and public transport infrastructure, TfL said.
The Airports Commission acknowledges that if the west London airport did expand, passengers would experience “very crowded conditions during peak times”, but TfL said it had underestimated the demand for surface access in 2030 by 25 per cent.
Daniel Moylan, Mayor of London’s chief adviser of aviation, said: “The Airports Commission’s assessment of the surface access impacts for an expanded Heathrow does not extend beyond 2030 and assumes a third runway to be barely a quarter full, which is not credible for an airport currently operating at over 98 per cent capacity.
“With that in mind it is hardly surprising that the commission has woefully underestimated the associated surface access cost by more than £10bn.”
TfL’s concerns were aired in a letter to the All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) for Heathrow and the wider economy.
Zac Goldsmith, Conservative prospective parliamentary for Richmond Park and north Kingston, MP and chairman of the APPG, said: “TfL is better placed than any other organisation to understand the effects Heathrow expansion will have on London’s transport network, and it is extraordinary therefore that the commission never bothered to ask for its assessment.
“This raises serious questions about the thoroughness and reliability of the commission’s work. If TfL is right, the taxpayer may end up having to cough up an additional £15bn to help Heathrow secure its monopoly, in addition to all the associated problems of gridlock, noise and air pollution.”
Heathrow Appg website http://www.heathrowappg.com/tfl-response-to-appg-on-surface-access/
The TFL report is here TFL Response to APPG on Surface Access Feb 2015
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Relevant paragraph from the TfL response: Page 6
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As it is, the economic benefit of a new Heathrow runway is hotly debated and highly uncertain. The possible economic benefit of a new runway is calculated over a 60 year period, 2026 to 2086.
Sixty years. . ie. not a huge amount of benefit per year, (£2 – 3 billion maximum, on a generous estimate) bearing in mind the huge tourism deficit (perhaps £10 – £13 billion per year; or the loss to the Treasury as air travel pays no VAT and no fuel duty, amounting to perhaps £10 billion per year).
But the Airports Commission estimate of £211 billion economic benefit from a new NW Heathrow runway comes with many caveats – by the Commission itself. They say the “results should be interpreted with caution.”
So that benefit needs at least another £20 billion knocked off it for transport infrastructure – without even starting to consider the cost of social infrastructure required to support all the extra development in the area, and the influx of people.
See earlier
Heathrow display 2 versions of their “economic benefit” poster – one saying £100 billion, the other “up to £211 billion” …. (Over 60 years)
Heathrow airport has two different versions of its massive poster near Terminal 5. They have the same text, with claims of the alleged economic benefits to the UK of a new runway. One poster says “Expand Heathrow and you grow the economy by £100 billion.” And other nearby says “Expand Heathrow and you grow the economy by up to £211 billion.” They cannot both be right. Is this merely a matter of picking wildly different figures out of the air? Heathrow airport responded that: “£100bn was our conservative estimate. When the Airports Commission analysed it they estimated up to £211bn across UK.” What the massive posters fail to say it these purported benefit are not for one year. They are over a 60 year period, 2026 to 2086. ie. not a huge amount per year, (£2 – 3 billion maximum, on a generous estimate) bearing in mind the huge tourism deficit (perhaps £10 – £13 billion per year); or the loss to the Treasury as air travel pays no VAT and no fuel duty, (amounting to perhaps £10 billion per year). But the Airports Commission estimate of £211 billion economic benefit from a new NW Heathrow runway comes with many caveats – by the Commission itself. They say the “results should be interpreted with caution, given the innovative methodology used…” So more that are difficult to substantiate.
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