Aviation Week blog says forecast aviation demand is unsustainable and must be dampened

by Antoine Gelain | Aviation Week & Space Technology

When it comes to sustainability of air travel, the aviation community is lying to itself. There is an elephant in the room and nobody wants to see it. Without more significant efforts—some would call them sacrifices—air travel will continue to be a huge contributor to this planet’s pollution and global warming, with dire consequences for future generations, whether they are air travelers or not.

Last month, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the first time officially acknowledged its duty to promulgate standards applicable to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from commercial aircraft. Indeed, aircraft remain the single largest GHG-emitting transportation source not yet subject to GHG standards in the U.S.

FACING FACTS

Air travel and related emissions have doubled in the past 15 years

Aircraft is the largest transportation source not subjected to U.S. greenhouse gas standards

Forecasted growth in air travel is unsustainable if climate change is to be tackled

The uptake of sustainable alternative fuels, which are meant to be a large part of the solution by 2050, has been extremely slow, with only two airports in the world—Oslo and Los Angeles—offering biofuels to airlines.

As for the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) progress on setting a CO2emissions standard, it is as slow as it can get. Having set some “aspirational” goals in 2010 for global net carbon emissions, it is only now getting to the point of recommending that new aircraft models entering service after 2020 and existing aircraft models coming off the production line after 2023 meet the new technical standard—which has yet to be introduced.

The bottom line is that with all the talk about the aviation community being committed to action on climate change (see, for example, the Air Transport Action Group’s position paper signed by aviation industry leaders in 2012) and about how various supply-driven measures will improve air travel’s sustainability, everybody knows that serious progress will not be achieved unless we address the other part of the equation, aviation’s “sacred cow”—demand.

Air travel has essentially doubled in the past 15 years (and so have related CO2 emissions) and is expected to double again over the next 15 years. There is just no way supply-based measures such as technology and infrastructure improvements will come close to offsetting such rapid growth and its impact on the environment.

As for the so-called “market-based measures,” such as the European Union’s Emissions Trading System or other carbon-offsetting schemes, they are just gap-filling measures that make people feel good without really changing the fundamental dynamics of the industry.

These dynamics are essentially about convincing as many people as possible to fly as often as possible. This is achieved in two ways: First, by making air travel affordable for mass consumption and second, by enticing business travelers with all sorts of bells and whistles.

The low-fare airline model has certainly made air travel more accessible to many, but in that process it has contributed to its excessive commoditization. And while it may be “low-fare,” it certainly is not “low-cost” as far as the environment is concerned. In that respect, air travel is very much akin to fast food: It may seem to be a bargain, but it passes the true cost on to the public health and purse and pushes it into the future.

As for major airlines, they are just milking the top of the market by catering to the desires of an international business community that is self-important enough to believe it deserves nothing less than increasingly dedicated and expensive services such as all-business-class flights, upscale cabins, exclusive lounges and loyalty rewards. Yet frequent-flier programs themselves create the wrong incentives, as they encourage business customers—most of which do not pay for their tickets themselves—to fly more and spend more on flights than may be necessary.

If we in the aviation community are really serious about addressing climate change, we first need to accept that the current and forecasted demand for air travel is unsustainable and therefore must be dampened. We as air travelers must become wiser customers: Do we actually need to fly to all these business conferences? Is it worth paying 10 times the price of an economy ticket for better wine, free lounge food and a more comfortable seat? Do we really believe a €20 ($22) trip from London to Copenhagen covers its true cost and true value?

Traveling to different countries can be one of the most enriching experiences in life. Let’s not trivialize it to the point where we do not think twice before buying a cheap air ticket. Let’s be honest with ourselves and accept the basic but uncomfortable truth that to make air travel sustainable, we first need to change our individual behaviors and become more discerning consumers. In the must-win fight for sustainability, there cannot be gain without pain.

Antoine Gelain is the managing director of Paragon European Partners. He is based in London.

http://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/opinion-uncomfortable-truth-about-aviation-emissions