Committee on Climate Change – reiterates its need for aviation demand increase to be 60% at most (cf. 2005 level)
Date added: 17 January, 2018
The Committee on Climate Change has produced its assessment of the UK’s Clean Growth Strategy. Its key findings are that thought the Government has made a strong commitment to achieving the UK’s climate change targets, policies and proposals set out in the Clean Growth Strategy will need to be firmed up, and gaps to meeting the 4th and 5th carbon budgets must be closed. The CCC says, on aviation: “The government should plan to limit UK aviation emissions to the level assumed when the fifth carbon budget was set (i.e. around 2005 levels by 2050), supported by strong international policies. Emissions at this level could be achieved through a combination of fuel and operational efficiency improvement, use of sustainable biofuels, and by limiting demand growth to around 60% above 2005 levels by 2050.” And while their recommendation was “A plan to limit UK aviation emissions to the level assumed when the fifth carbon budget was set: around 2005 levels by 2050, implying around a 60% potential increase in demand, supported by strong international policies” there has been NO progress made. They also say: The Government have committed to publish a new Aviation Strategy by the end of 2018. This will need to include a plan to limit UK aviation emissions to the level assumed when the fifth carbon budget was set (i.e. around 2005 levels by 2050, likely to imply around a 60% potential increase in demand), supported by strong international policies.”
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Some extracts – relating to aviation – from the Committee on Climate Change’s independent assessment of the UK Government’s Clean Growth Strategy.
Box 2.4. Key technologies and infrastructures for long-term emissions reduction
• Aviation.
The government should plan to limit UK aviation emissions to the level assumed when the fifth carbon budget was set (i.e. around 2005 levels by 2050), supported by strong international policies. Emissions at this level could be achieved through a combination of fuel and operational efficiency improvement, use of sustainable biofuels, and by limiting demand growth to around 60% above 2005 levels by 2050.
Table 3.1. Progress against the Committee’s recommendations in the 2017 Progress Report
Recommendation
A plan to limit UK aviation emissions to the level assumed when the fifth carbon budget was set: around 2005 levels by 2050, implying around a 60% potential increase in demand, supported by strong international policies
Assessment
No progress.
Box 4.1. Gaps in the policies and proposals included in the Clean Growth Strategy
• Aviation.
The Government have committed to publish a new Aviation Strategy by the end of 2018. This will need to include a plan to limit UK aviation emissions to the level assumed when the fifth carbon budget was set (i.e. around 2005 levels by 2050, likely to imply around a 60% potential increase in demand), supported by strong international policies.
We will continue to monitor progress reducing the policy and delivery risks in these areas as part of our annual reports to Parliament on meeting carbon budgets.
[It also lists, under Box 4.1:
Buildings energy efficiency. The overarching trajectory set out for improving the efficiency of the existing building stock is promising. Details need to be set out on how this will be delivered, particularly for ‘able-to-pay’ homeowners for whom there are still no firm policies to drive the necessary actions. • Low-carbon heat in homes, businesses and industry. The commitment to phase out the installation of high carbon fossil fuel heating in buildings off the gas grid is welcome. This should include heat pump deployment, which, together with installation in new-build properties, would develop heat pump markets and supply chains in order to prepare, if necessary, for potential widespread deployment in buildings connected to the gas grid from the 2030s. However, the Strategy provides little commitment to a low-carbon supply mix in heat networks and no commitment to biomethane post-2021, both of which the Committee has identified as ‘low-regrets’ options at this stage. There is also little commitment to support an increase in the use of bioenergy for industrial process heat.
• Surface transport. The Government has set out an ambition for 30-70% of car sales and up to 40% of van sales in 2030 to be ultra-low emission vehicles (ULEVs). It is will be necessary to deliver towards the upper end of the range for cars, and greater ambition will be needed for vans. There is little concrete action on emissions from HGVs. More is also needed on shifting travel demand from passenger cars to lower-emission modes.
• Power generation. The Government has set out plans for the decarbonisation of UK power generation to below 100 gCO2 per kWh by 2030. However, this places a high reliance on new nuclear build and net imports across interconnectors, both of which have associated risks. More is needed to provide a route to market for low-carbon electricity generation, especially lower-cost options such as onshore wind and solar, and to contract for additional low-carbon generation should the Government’s expected contributions from new nuclear plants and overseas generators under-deliver.
• Agriculture and land use. A commitment to include climate change mitigation as part of a new system of future agricultural support is welcome. However, strong policies to deliver emissions reductions in agriculture need to be developed soon. The acceleration of tree-planting rates should occur earlier than the Strategy’s proposed timeline of the 2020s, to ensure that around 70,000 hectares of afforestation is delivered in England by 2025. ]
Under “Preparing for 2050”
Furthermore, deeper reductions will be required to meet the aims of the Paris Agreement, whether by 2050 or subsequently. Development of CCS, combined with very low emissions from transport, buildings and power generation by 2050 (i.e. emissions reductions across those sectors of at least 90%), progress in ‘difficult to reduce’ sectors (e.g. agriculture and aviation) and, if feasible, deployment of GGR technologies, would retain the potential for reductions of more than 80% to be achieved.
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https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/CCC-Independent-Assessment-of-UKs-Clean-Growth-Strategy-2018.pdf
This report provides the Committee on Climate Change’s independent assessment of the UK Government’s Clean Growth Strategy.
The report finds that:
- The Government has made a strong commitment to achieving the UK’s climate change targets.
- Policies and proposals set out in the Clean Growth Strategy will need to be firmed up.
- Gaps to meeting the fourth and fifth carbon budgets remain. These gaps must be closed.
- Risks of under-delivery must be addressed and carbon budgets met on time.
- https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/independent-assessment-uks-clean-growth-strategy-ambition-action/
Box 2.3. A strategy for greenhouse gas removals
Even with full deployment of known low-carbon measures some UK emissions will remain, especially from aviation, agriculture and parts of industry. Greenhouse gas removal options (e.g. afforestation, carbon-storing materials, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, and direct air capture and storage) will be required alongside widespread decarbonisation in order to reach net-zero emissions. Success requires a globally co-ordinated effort across the full innovation chain from basic research to market readiness, reflecting the differing levels of development of removal options. In the Clean Growth Strategy the Government committed to developing a strategic approach to greenhouse gas removals technologies.
Box 2.4. Key technologies and infrastructures for long-term emissions reduction
• Aviation.
The government should plan to limit UK aviation emissions to the level assumed when the fifth carbon budget was set (i.e. around 2005 levels by 2050), supported by strong international policies. Emissions at this level could be achieved through a combination of fuel and operational efficiency improvement, use of sustainable biofuels, and by limiting demand growth to around 60% above 2005 levels by 2050.
Table 3.1. Progress against the Committee’s recommendations in the 2017 Progress Report
Recommendation
A plan to limit UK aviation emissions to the level assumed when the fifth carbon budget was set: around 2005 levels by 2050, implying around a 60% potential increase in demand, supported by strong international policies
Assessment
No progress.
Box 4.1. Gaps in the policies and proposals included in the Clean Growth Strategy
• Aviation.
The Government have committed to publish a new Aviation Strategy by the end of 2018. This will need to include a plan to limit UK aviation emissions to the level assumed when the fifth carbon budget was set (i.e. around 2005 levels by 2050, likely to imply around a 60% potential increase in demand), supported by strong international policies.
We will continue to monitor progress reducing the policy and delivery risks in these areas as part of our annual reports to Parliament on meeting carbon budgets.
[It also lists, under Box 4.1:
Buildings energy efficiency. The overarching trajectory set out for improving the efficiency of the existing building stock is promising. Details need to be set out on how this will be delivered, particularly for ‘able-to-pay’ homeowners for whom there are still no firm policies to drive the necessary actions. • Low-carbon heat in homes, businesses and industry. The commitment to phase out the installation of high carbon fossil fuel heating in buildings off the gas grid is welcome. This should include heat pump deployment, which, together with installation in new-build properties, would develop heat pump markets and supply chains in order to prepare, if necessary, for potential widespread deployment in buildings connected to the gas grid from the 2030s. However, the Strategy provides little commitment to a low-carbon supply mix in heat networks and no commitment to biomethane post-2021, both of which the Committee has identified as ‘low-regrets’ options at this stage. There is also little commitment to support an increase in the use of bioenergy for industrial process heat.
• Surface transport. The Government has set out an ambition for 30-70% of car sales and up to 40% of van sales in 2030 to be ultra-low emission vehicles (ULEVs). It is will be necessary to deliver towards the upper end of the range for cars, and greater ambition will be needed for vans. There is little concrete action on emissions from HGVs. More is also needed on shifting travel demand from passenger cars to lower-emission modes.
• Power generation. The Government has set out plans for the decarbonisation of UK power generation to below 100 gCO2 per kWh by 2030. However, this places a high reliance on new nuclear build and net imports across interconnectors, both of which have associated risks. More is needed to provide a route to market for low-carbon electricity generation, especially lower-cost options such as onshore wind and solar, and to contract for additional low-carbon generation should the Government’s expected contributions from new nuclear plants and overseas generators under-deliver.
• Agriculture and land use. A commitment to include climate change mitigation as part of a new system of future agricultural support is welcome. However, strong policies to deliver emissions reductions in agriculture need to be developed soon. The acceleration of tree-planting rates should occur earlier than the Strategy’s proposed timeline of the 2020s, to ensure that around 70,000 hectares of afforestation is delivered in England by 2025. ]
Under “Preparing for 2050”
Furthermore, deeper reductions will be required to meet the aims of the Paris Agreement, whether by 2050 or subsequently. Development of CCS, combined with very low emissions from transport, buildings and power generation by 2050 (i.e. emissions reductions across those sectors of at least 90%), progress in ‘difficult to reduce’ sectors (e.g. agriculture and aviation) and, if feasible, deployment of GGR technologies, would retain the potential for reductions of more than 80% to be achieved.
.
https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/CCC-Independent-Assessment-of-UKs-Clean-Growth-Strategy-2018.pdf
.
.
Even with full deployment of known low-carbon measures some UK emissions will remain, especially from aviation, agriculture and parts of industry. Greenhouse gas removal options (e.g. afforestation, carbon-storing materials, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, and direct air capture and storage) will be required alongside widespread decarbonisation in order to reach net-zero emissions. Success requires a globally co-ordinated effort across the full innovation chain from basic research to market readiness, reflecting the differing levels of development of removal options. In the Clean Growth Strategy the Government committed to developing a strategic approach to greenhouse gas removals technologies.
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See also
comment from the Aviation Environment Federation (AEF)
CCC report on UK government CO2 targets shows there has been NO progress on aviation carbon. AEF comment
January 17, 2018
The Committee on Climate Change’s review of the Government’s Clean Growth plan says that, though it is ambitious in tone, it is riddled with policy gaps. And yet again, aviation is on the list of sectors needing urgent attention. The Aviation Environment Federation (AEF) comments that the CCC’s longstanding advice is that emissions from international aviation, must be allowed for by setting aside 37.5 Mt from the total carbon budget allowed in 2050 (around 25% of the allowable CO2 by that date). Yet as today’s report notes, the government has made ‘no progress’ in setting out a policy to achieve this. Meanwhile, with its fingers apparently stuffed into its ears, the Government is ploughing on with plans for a third Heathrow runway. While the CCC advice has always been that, at most, about 60% increase in air passenger growth could be accommodated, in the 37.5MtCO2 cap, the DfT’s own data shows that (as all UK airports hope to grow) even without any new runway there will be around 78% UK air passenger growth expected by 2050 (compared to 2005), and that with a new runway at Heathrow the figure will be more like 89% (or about 88%. with a Gatwick runway). It surely stretches credulity to think that a new runway could be shoehorned into this equation without putting the CO2 target effectively out of reach, which is presumably why the Government is refusing to talk about it.
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Posted: Wednesday, January 17th, 2018. Filed in Climate Change News, General News, Recent News.
