Manston Airport cuts back expansion plans
28.11.2009 (BBC)
A Kent airport has cut back its 25-year expansion plan because of the effects of the recession on aviation.
Kent International Airport, based at Manston, has published the final version of its master plan, which was first set out in October last year. Master Plan.
It has cut its forecast for passenger numbers in 2018 to 2.2 million from the previous 2.7 million and in 2033 to 4.7 million instead of 5.7 million.
The airport said 400 members of the public responded to the draft plan.
"Like most businesses in the UK aviation marketplace, our business has felt the impact of the recession," said Matt Clark, chief executive of Kent International.
"Our cargo business has proved itself to be resilient but the recent market activity has delayed our plans for passenger service expansion in 2009."
Daily services
The master plan shows the airport expects fewer than 50,000 passengers in 2010, rising to 527,000 in 2014.
It is working on the assumption that airlines will begin operating daily scheduled services from Manston from 2014 at the latest.
The total number of passenger flights per day are expected to rise from one in 2010 to 56 in 2018 and 97 in 2033.
"We do not expect medium or long-term growth in demand to be affected by the current economic climate," said Mr Clark.
"But the milestones in the master plan have been pushed out to account for the impact of the recession on the first few years."
The master plan for the 800-acre site will be reviewed every five years.
The airport's plans for expansion have been opposed by residents in the Stop Manston Expansion Group, Kent Green Party and the Campaign to Protect Rural England.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/kent/8384310.stm
Master Plan. (116 pages)
The Kent International Airport press release
The consultation on the draft Master Plan ended in December 2008, and the airport said it would publish the master plan early in 2009.
From the Master Plan:
Passenger Forecasts:
Table 3: Annual Passengers
Year Annual passengers
2010 < 50,000
2011 50,000-100,000
2012 206,000
2013 295,000
2014 527,000
2015 1,268,000
2006 10,000
2005 207,000
2000 6,000
1996 -
Freight Movement Forecasts
Our airport currently processes around 32,000 tonnes of freight per year. We expect freight movements to remain fairly constant, with tonnage increasing gradually each year (based on a high case forecast this is assumed to be 6%) combined with step changes as existing operators at other airports relocate to our airport to access available capacity. By 2018 freight movements are expected to have reached approximately 167,000 tonnes per annum. In 2033 they are forecast to total approximately 401,000 tonnes per annum. Table 4 provides further details of the forecast figures.
Table 4: Total Forecast Annual Tonnages
Year Annual Freight Tonnage
2010 31,600
2011 45,200
2012 57,300
2013 62,500
2014 107,000
2015 138,400
2018 167,500
2005 7,612
2000 32,238
1996 1,918
Table 5: Total Forecast Annual Traffic Movements
Category 2010 2013 2018 2033
Passenger 352 1,003 20,325 3 1,509
Freight 473 977 2,619 6,251
Other 17,259 20,001 23,195 36,137
TOTAL 18,084 21,488 46,139 73,897
by comparison.
Table 6: Average Daily Movements
Category 2010 2013 2018 2033
Passenger 1 3 56 97
Freight 2 3 8 18
Other 48 55 64 72
TOTAL 51 61 128 187
All figures are based on 365 days a year flying and
have been rounded up to the nearest whole number.
On night flights, it says:
There has never been a rule in place which bans flights between certain hours at our airport, although the scheduling of regular flights between 11pm and 7am is not presently permitted. The current agreement has within it a system whereby aircraft arriving and departing between 11pm and 7am are allowed, provided a payment is made into a community fund for aircraft movements which exceed a noise quota count rating of 4. The community fund is audited by the KIACC [42] and Thanet District Council, with the funds collected and distributed by a panel to applicant organisations located in the area affected by airport noise.
As the airport grows, the essential requirement to accommodate delayed aircraft will remain. We will propose a system of controls consistent with those in place at our UK and European counterparts. Several options exist, including a Quota Count System, restrictions on noisy aircraft and the adoption of a night time flying policy.
2008 - 11k pax
2010 - 50k
2014 - 500k
2015 - 1268k
2018 - 2200k
Unless they have an in-house breeding programme for passengers, or are planning by force to shut down some other airport, I cannot really see them getting that kind of traction.
Moreover it is an airport that is going from the equivalent of 1/10th of a Ryanair route to 22 such routes in 10 years. They a expect a 20% compound growth rate from 2015 and an even more impressive 250% growth in one year (2014).
Of course they might do it, but not against a background of:
2) a stuffed economy
3) a weak pound
4) every other (and more established) airport scrabbling for the same passengers
5) Ryanair and easyJet debunking to Europe
Interestingly they do not mention here the number of pax in 2012 ie Olympics year, the one time they might be able to hit this curve!
(28th November 2009)
Copyright AirportWatch, 2004