Branson and business leaders warn UK over ‘oil crunch’

10.2.2010   (UK Press Association)
 

The UK risks being hit by painful hikes in the cost of food, heating and travel
because it is unprepared for surging oil prices, Sir Richard Branson and other
business leaders have warned.

Their report, entitled “The Oil Crunch – a wake up call for the UK economy”,
warns the world is running out of oil and predicts shortages and price spikes
as soon as 2015.
 
                            Download the 2010 Oil Crunch Report   (60 pages)

It said the challenges facing the UK would exceed those presented by the financial
crisis and said the poorest in society were most vulnerable to potentially significant
increases.

The report said Government must acknowledge the risks to the economy and to produce
contingency plans for transport, retail, agriculture and alternative power.

“Unless we do so, we face a situation during the term of the next government
where fuel price unrest could lead to shortages in consumer products and the UK’s
energy security will be significantly compromised,” it said.

The report was compiled by the Industry Taskforce for Peak Oil and Energy Security,
a group of private British companies whose members include Sir Richard; Brian
Souter, chief executive of Stagecoach; Scottish & Southern Energy boss Ian
Marchant and Philip Dilley, chairman of consultancy firm Arup.

Virgin Group founder Sir Richard – whose airline and rail businesses are sensitive
to volatility in the cost of crude – said businesses and Government should work
together to prepare the economy. “UK competitiveness will be hampered unless we
can develop viable, affordable and secure long term sources of alternative energy,”
he said.

While the report did not address climate change directly, it stressed “massive
areas of overlap” between the issues of depleted resources and pollution. It said
transportation was particularly vulnerable to rising oil prices, with businesses
from supermarkets to manufacturers reliant on delivery networks. The group said
alternative methods of powering vehicles – for example electrification of the
railways – should be explored and infrastructure developed.

Government was also urged to plan for food price hikes, as agriculture relies
on oil-related products such as fertilisers.

The report comes amid general fears about future energy security and costs in
the UK. Energy watchdog Ofgem has warned electricity and gas may become unaffordable
for an increasing number of households unless drastic action is taken to secure
power supplies
 
link to article 
see also
 
Press release from The UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES)
10.2.2010

Business calls for urgent action on "oil crunch" threat to UK economy

  • Taskforce warns Britain is unprepared for significant risk to companies and consumers
  • Poorest to be hit hardest by price rises for travel, food, heating and consumer
    goods
  • New policies must be priority for whoever wins the General Election
  • Recommended packages include legislation, new technologies and behaviour-change
    incentives
  • Fundamental change in demand patterns triggered by emerging economy countries

London, 10 February, 2010: A group of leading business people today call for urgent action to prepare the
UK for Peak Oil. The second report of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and
Energy Security (ITPOES) finds that oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price
volatility will destabilise economic, political and social activity potentially
by 2015. Peak Oil refers to the point where the highest practicable rate of global
oil production has been achieved and from which future levels of production will
either plateau, or begin to diminish. This means an end to the era of cheap oil.

The report, "The Oil Crunch – a wake-up call for the UK economy", urges the formation
of a coalition of government, business and consumers to address the issue.

The Taskforce states the impact of Peak Oil will include sharp increases in the
cost of travel, food, heating and retail goods. It finds that the transport sector
will be particularly hard hit, with more vulnerable members of society the first
to feel the impact. The Taskforce warns that the UK must not be caught out by
the oil crunch in the same way it was with the credit crunch and states that policies
to address Peak Oil must be a priority for the new government formed after the
election.

Having assessed the systemic changes caused by the global economic recession,
coupled with the projected growth from non-OECD countries, ITPOES predicts Peak
Oil will occur within the next decade, potentially by 2015 at less than 95 million
barrels per day. (In 2008, production levels were 85 million barrels per day.)
The study finds that the recession has delayed the oil crunch by two years. This
provides invaluable time to plan for a future which will see structural increases
in oil prices coupled with shortages and increased market volatility. The UK will
be particularly badly hit by these factors with a tightening of supply leading
to greater oil import dependency, rising and volatile prices, inflationary pressures
and the risk of disruption to the transport system.

Key recommendations from the report include the acceleration of the "green transport
revolution" to see the ongoing introduction of lower carbon technology and trials
of sustainable bio fuels. This would cover private vehicles, but also extend to
the general transport network, with the government urged not to cut investment
in public transport. A focus on new clean technologies should be combined with
wide scale behavioural change promoted through incentives and education to produce
a modal shift to greener modes of transport.

ITPOES’ membership includes Arup, Foster + Partners, Scottish and Southern Energy,
Solar Century, Stagecoach Group and Virgin Group. The report will be launched
at an event at the Royal Society with presentations from Richard Branson, Founder
of Virgin Group; Philip Dilley, Chairman of Arup; Ian Marchant, CEO of Scottish
and Southern Energy; Jeremy Leggett, Chairman of Solarcentury; Brian Souter, CEO
of Stagecoach Group; and Will Whitehorn, President of Virgin Galactic.

The Taskforce recognises that oil demand in the OECD area (developed countries)
is now flat or declining but also recognises that demand in non-OECD (developing
countries) continues to expand rapidly, having already recovered from the recession.
Demand in the non-OECD areas already accounts for 45% of global oil demand and
is expected to reach 50% by the middle of the decade.

The report issues a range of recommendations including:

General policies:

  • Government, local authorities and business must face up to the Peak Oil threat
    and put contingency plans in place
  • A package of policies are required to deal with the economic, financial and social
    impact of potential high oil prices
  • There is a need to accelerate the green industrial revolution

Transport:

  • Government support should be boosted for alternative technological solutions
    and associated infrastructure, such as electric vehicles
  • Policies and fiscal measures to support and incentivise a shift from the traditional
    car to more fuel- and carbon-efficient modes of transport to be established
  • Government investment in public transport must be maintained

Power generation and distribution policies:

  • Government must provide a stable pro-investment regulatory and political climate
  • The nation’s power generation and transmission distribution infrastructure must
    be changed to adapt to new demand patterns, price spikes and supply interruption

Retail and agriculture:

  • Measures must be taken to protect the public, particularly the most disadvantaged,
    from the impact of rising fuel costs on food and other consumer goods prices

Quotes from Taskforce members

"Working together, we must ensure that the Government takes action to address
the impact of the oil crunch and ensure the UK is better prepared to withstand
higher and more volatile oil prices. UK competitiveness will be hampered unless
we can develop viable, affordable and secure long term sources of alternative
energy." Richard Branson, Founder of Virgin Group.

"The UK’s freight network, cars and public transport systems are almost entirely
dependent on oil. The twin threats of the oil crunch and climate change make that
unsustainable. We need urgent Government action to support alternative technologies
and incentivise behavioural change to protect business, consumers and our environment."
Brian Souter, CEO of Stagecoach Group.

"There is the danger of creating a social recession as the poorest households
get hit the hardest by higher prices. Economic growth will be endangered as prices
rise, costs of raw materials increase and consumer spending ability is suppressed."
Ian Marchant, CEO of Scottish & Southern Energy.

"As we reach the maximum rate of oil extraction, the era of cheap oil is behind
us. We must plan for a world in which oil prices are likely to be both higher
and more volatile

and where oil price shocks have the potential to destabilise economic, political
and social activity." Philip Dilley, Chairman of Arup.

"Practitioners in the low-carbon industries know just how fast we could mobilise
technologies able to soften the blow of the energy crunch while abating climate
risk, given the chance. At one level, only two things are standing in the way:
a collective sense of urgency consistent with peak-oil risk, and effective yoking
of industry and government in strategic harness." Dr Jeremy Leggett, Chairman
of Solarcentury.

 
                        Download the 2010 Oil Crunch Report   (60 pages)

The 2010 Peak Oil  Report

On 10 February 2010 at the Royal Society, six UK companies – Arup, Foster + Partners,
Scottish and Southern Energy, Solarcentury, Stagecoach Group and Virgin – joined
together to launch the second report of the UK Industry Task-Force on Peak Oil
and Energy Security (ITPOES).

The report, titled "The Oil Crunch – a wake-up call for the UK economy", finds that oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price volatility will destabilise
economic, political and social activity within five years.

The Task-Force warns that the UK must not be caught out by the oil crunch in
the same way it was with the credit crunch and states that policies to address
Peak Oil must be a priority for the new government formed after the 2010 election.

 
 
 
 
 
 
see also
 
BBC Radio 4   interview with Arup’s John Miles   ( 10.2.2010 ) at
 
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8507000/8507740.stm
see also
 
 
by Jeremy Leggatt
10.2.2010
 

Society ignores the oil crunch at its peril

Warnings of a crash in oil production are no longer limited to a prescient few
individuals – major British companies and oil CEOs are now sounding the alert
 
Major British companies, led by Virgin, Scottish and Southern and Stagecoach,
are flagging the danger, in today’s report from the
UK industry taskforce on peak oil and energy security . So too are the CEOs of oil companies themselves, in the case of Total and Petrobras, and growing numbers
of other senior oil industry figures, usually recently retired. Even the
International Energy Agency is sounding the alert, in a coded sort of way
 
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/cif-green/2010/feb/10/oil-crunch-peril
 
 
see also
 
The earlier “Oil Crunch” report from October 2008 is at
http://peakoiltaskforce.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/oil-report-final.pdf  (40 pages)