2010 on course to be joint hottest year with 1998 since 1850

Date added: 25 November, 2010

This year is so far tied for the hottest year in a record dating back to 1850
in a new sign of a warming trend, the three major institutes [NASA, the CRU and the Uni of East Anglia, and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration   – NOAA]  which calculate global warming estimates told Reuters.

UN climate talks resume next week in Cancún, Mexico, where expectations are no longer for a comprehensive deal to slow warming,
but smaller progress for example to curb deforestation, in a bid to agree a pact
next year or later.

The previous conference in Copenhagen last year fell short of hopes, but about
140 countries have agreed a non-binding deal to try to limit warming to less than
2C above pre-industrial levels.

Temperatures are now about 0.8C above pre-industrial levels, and 2010 is about
0.5C above the 1961-1990 average, near the record, with two months’ data still
to collect.

Even with a possible cool end to the year, 2010 is expected to be no lower than
third in a record where 1998 and 2005 are warmest.   The UN panel of climate scientists says higher temperatures mean more floods,
heatwaves and rising sea levels.

“I think it’s too close to call. Based on these numbers it’ll be second, but
it depends on how warm November and December are,” said Dr Phil Jones, director
of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), at the University of East Anglia, which says 1998 was the record year so far.

By contrast, scientists at Nasa say surface temperatures through October were
above the previous record year, which it says was 2005. Differences between years
are only a few hundredths of a degree.

“I would not be surprised if most or all groups found that 2010 was tied for
the warmest year,” said Nasa’s Dr James Hansen.

And the US National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said 2010 was a “dead-heat”
for the record. “Our data show 2010 being virtually tied with 1998, through October,”
said Deke Arndt, from NCDC.

The three institutes use similar observations, but in slightly different ways.
For example, Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies takes greater account
of Arctic weather stations, where warming has been fastest.

Some sceptics have argued that because the last temperature peak was in 2005
or 1998, that global warming must have stalled.

Most scientists reject that view, saying that whether or not 2010 is the hottest
year is less important than the long-term trend, which is up, due to human-caused
greenhouse gas emissions. The period 2000-2009 was the warmest decade on record.

Scientists also point to natural variation, and in particular the El Nino Pacific
weather phenomenon associated with warm weather worldwide. 1998 was a strong El
Nino year.

“The trend is overwhelming, particularly over the past 50 years,” said Rajendra
Pachauri, head of the UN panel of climate scientists. “I wouldn’t read these numbers
for a particular year as very compelling, we have to take a historical view,”
he told Reuters.

In one of the biggest bets on climate change, James Annan, a climate scientist at the Frontier Research Centre for Global
Change in Japan, has a $10,000 wager made in 2005 with two Russian solar physicists who are sceptical about global
warming.

He will win if average world temperatures are higher from 2012-17 than they were
from 1998-2003. “Things are progressing smoothly,” he said.

NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration) monthly reports:

Global Highlights

• The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for August 2010 was the third warmest on record at 16.2 °C (61.2 °F), which is 0.60 °C (1.08 °F) above the 20^th century average of 15.6 °C (60.1 °F). August 1998 is the warmest August on record
  and 2009 is the second warmest.
• The August worldwide land surface temperature was 0.90 °C (1.62 °F) above the 20^th century average of 13.8 °C (56.9 °F)—the second warmest August on record, behind 1998.
• The worldwide ocean surface temperature was 0.50 °C (0.90 °F) above the 20^th century average of 16.4 °C (61.4 °F) and tied with 1997 as the sixth warmest August on record.
• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for June–August
  2010 was the second warmest on record, behind 1998, at 16.2 °C (61.3 °F), which
  is 0.64 °C (1.15 °F) above the 20^th century average of 15.6 °C (60.1 °F).
• The June–August worldwide land surface temperature was 1.00 °C (1.80 °F) above
  the 20^th century average of 13.8 °C (56.9 °F)—the warmest June–August on record, surpassing
  the previous June–August record anomaly of 0.92 °C (1.66 °F) set in 1998.
• The worldwide ocean surface temperature was 0.51 °C (0.92 °F) above the 20^th century average of 16.4 °C (61.5 °F) and was the fifth warmest June–August on
  record.
• For January–August 2010, the global combined land and ocean surface temperature
  of 14.7 °C (58.5 °F) tied with 1998 as the warmest January–August period on record.
  This value is 0.67 °C (1.21 °F) above the 20^th century average.

Global Highlights

• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for July 2010 was the second warmest on record, behind 1998, at 16.5 °C (61.6F), which is 0.66 °C (1.19 °F) above the
  20^th century average of 15.8 °C (60.4 °F).
• The July worldwide land surface temperature was 1.03 °C (1.85 °F) above the 20^th century average of 14.3 °C (57.8 °F)—the warmest July on record.
• The worldwide ocean surface temperature was 0.54 °C (0.97 °F) above the 20^th century average of 16.4 °C (61.5 °F) and the fifth warmest July on record. The warmth was most pronounced in the Atlantic Ocean.
• La Niña conditions developed during July 2010, as sea surface temperatures (SST)
  continued to drop across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. According
  to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, La Niña is expected to strengthen and last
  through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2010-2011.
• For the year-to-date, the global combined land and ocean surface temperature
  of 14.5 °C (58.1 °F) was the warmest January-July period on record. This value is
  0.68 °C (1.22 °F) above the 20^th century average.

Global Highlights

Posted: Thursday, November 25th, 2010. Filed in Climate Change News.