Government’s new air traffic forecasts show no case for Stansted expansion
Stop Stansted Expansion (SSE), commenting on the new DfT air passenger forecasts, say that even in 2050 Stansted would be able to meet all its market demand without any need for a second runway. For Stansted, which handled 17.5 million passengers last year, the DfT predicts unconstrained demand of 26 million passengers in 2030 and of 38 million passengers in 2050. SSE say“These new official Government forecasts are far more credible than anything we have seen before, and far less threatening. The new DfT forecasts are also very much in line with the aspirations of Stansted’s new owners, Manchester Airport Group (MAG), whose Chief Executive, Charlie Cornish, has set his sights on restoring Stansted to its 2007 traffic peak within a decade. That would mean a return to an annual throughput of 24 million passengers by 2022. SSE say that amidst all the hot air from Boris about building a 4-runway ‘mega-hub’ at Stansted, it’s refreshing to have some realism from the DfT and MAG. SSE hope that removing the threat of a new runway once and for all would will lay the foundations for a vastly improved long term relationship with the local community.
GOVERNMENT’S NEW AIR TRAFFIC FORECASTS SHOW NO CASE FOR STANSTED EXPANSION
30.1.2013 (SSE)
New air traffic forecasts just published (29 January 2013) by the Department for Transport (DfT) reveal that even in 2050 Stansted would be able to meet all its market demand without any need for a second runway.
For Stansted, which handled 17.5 million passengers last year, the DfT predicts unconstrained demand of 26 million passengers in 2030 and of 38 million passengers in 2050.
The figures, provided as part of an overall picture of predicted demand for UK air travel show that for the UK as a whole, demand for air travel will grow from 221 million passengers last year to just 320 million passengers a year in 2030, a growth rate of just 2% a year, compared to average annual growth of 5% over the past 40 years.
The DfT cites the main reasons for the slowdown as higher oil prices, market maturity and an end to the days when air fares were becoming cheaper, year on year.
Welcoming the downward revision in the DfT forecasts, Stop Stansted Expansion (SSE) Chairman Peter Sanders said: “These new official Government forecasts are far more credible than anything we have seen before, and far less threatening. They show that even in 2050, Stansted would be able to meet all its market demand without any need for a second runway.”
The new DfT forecasts are also very much in line with the aspirations of Stansted’s new owners, Manchester Airport Group (MAG), whose Chief Executive, Charlie Cornish, has set his sights on restoring Stansted to its 2007 traffic peak within a decade. That would mean a return to an annual throughput of 24 million passengers by 2022.
Mr Sanders continued: “Amidst all the hot air from Boris Johnson about building a four-runway ‘mega-hub’ at Stansted, it’s refreshing to have some realism from the Department for Transport and Stansted’s new owners.”
Mr Sanders concluded: “If we can remove the threat of any new runways once and for all, this will lay the foundations for a vastly improved long term relationship with the local community, based on maximising the benefits of the airport and minimising its adverse impacts.”
- · The new DfT forecasts can be found at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-aviation-forecasts-2013 – see in particular Table 4.1 and Annex D.8.
illustrates the range of unconstrained forecasts graphically. Annex D provides
more detailed results.
and
.
see also
New Air traffic forecasts: Government expects growth in air travel to slow down considerably
Date added: January 30, 2013
The Department for Transport expects the rate of growth in air travel to slow down considerably over the coming decades. Their passenger forecasts published late yesterday expect demand for air travel to increase by just 1%-3% a year up to 2050 compared to historical growth rates of 5% a year over the last 40 years. The DfT lists 4 reasons for the slow down in growth for air travel: – higher oil prices; – an end to the decline in average fares seen in the last two decades; – the maturity of the air travel market to and from the UK; – and the availability of alternative modes of travel. The Department estimates that the major South East airports will be full by 2030 but recognizes there is some uncertainty about this: “ there is a range around this projection and they could be full as soon as 2025 or as late as 2040”. The central forecast, taking into account the impact of capacity constraints, is for passenger numbers at UK airports to increase from 219 million passengers in 2011 to 315 million in 2030 and 445 million by 2050. Compared to the DfT forecasts in August 2011, these forecasts are 6% lower for 2030 and 5% lower for 2050. Any proposals for airport expansion must be seen in this light.