Committee on Climate Change confirm aviation CO2 must remain capped – putting new runway into question
On the eve of the Airports Commission’s runway recommendation, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has told Government it has until 2016 to set out an effective plan for limiting aviation emissions. The Government’s official advisory body on delivery of the UK’s Climate Change Act used its 5th ‘Progress Report’ to Government to highlight the need for action on aviation, including constraints on demand. The CCC says that given the anticipated growth in emissions from the sector, the DfT must set out how it will ensure that emissions from aviation are no higher in 2050 than they were in 2005 (37.5 Mt). The limited scope for improvements in aviation technology mean that demand growth must be kept to no more than 60% above its 2005 level. Current forecasts of air passenger growth with associated CO2 emissions exceed this level EVEN WITHOUT adding a new runway. With a new SE runway the growth in passenger demand – and thus CO2 emissions – would be even higher. Extensive analysis by the AEF has shown that a new runway would make the aviation emissions cap (37.5MtCO2 annually) impossible to achieve. Ruling out a new runway is the most obvious first step for the Government to take in response to the CCC’s advice. Adding a runway, and then having to deal with the extra carbon problem it has produced, is not an efficient way to deal with the issue.
.
Tweet
Runway recommendation under threat by Climate Committee report: AEF comment
On the eve of the Airports Commission’s runway recommendation, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) today told Government it has until 2016 to set out an effective plan for limiting aviation emissions. The Government’s official advisory body on delivery of the UK’s Climate Change Act used its 5th ‘Progress Report’ [1] to Government to highlight the need for action on aviation, including constraints on demand.
Given the anticipated growth in emissions from the sector, the Department for Transport must set out how it will ensure that emissions from aviation are no higher in 2050 than they were in 2005 (37.5 Mt), the CCC states in its advice to ministers. The limited scope for improvements in aviation technology mean that demand growth must be limited to no more than 60% above its 2005 level. Current forecasts exceed this level even without adding new airport capacity and a new runway would increase passenger growth still further.
Cait Hewitt from Aviation Environment Federation, the leading UK environmental NGO campaigning on the environmental impacts of airports and flying, said:
“The CCC’s report highlights the need for Government intervention to manage aviation demand just at the time when a decision on new airport capacity is looming. Our work has shown, a new runway would make the aviation emissions cap impossible to achieve in the real world.
“Ruling out South East airport expansion is the most obvious first step for the Government to take in response to today’s advice from the CCC. At the very least it must postpone a decision on a new runway until after it has published an emissions action plan for aviation.”
While the CCC’s recommendations for limiting aviation emissions are not new, the specific requirement to set out a plan for achieving them will put new pressure on the Government as it considers the recommendation of the Airports Commission. Even with current runway capacity, emissions are currently forecast to overshoot the maximum level CCC say is permissible. A new runway at either Heathrow or Gatwick would significantly increase the scale of the challenge[2], as the Airports Commission’s own modelling has shown.
As set out in the report we published earlier this month[3], the only options for tackling CO2 from the sector if expansion was approved at either Heathrow or Gatwick would be draconian restrictions on regional airports or large increases in the cost of flying to manage demand. In reality, neither approach would be deliverable.
—ENDS—
Notes to Editors
For more information contact the AEF office on 020 3102 1509.
The Aviation Environment Federation is the leading UK organisation campaigning exclusively on the environmental impacts of aviation. We represent community groups and individuals around many of the UK’s airports and airfields. Further information can be found on our website:www.aef.org.uk
[1] The Committee on Climate Change’s 5th Progress report is available here: http://www.theccc.org.uk/
[2] View our infographic demonstrating future emissions forecasts with expansion at Heathrow and Gatwick here:http://www.aef.org.uk/2015/03/
[3] Our report is available here: http://www.aef.org.uk/2015/06/
Below is the actual text from the CCC
The Committee on Climate Change report (June 2015) is:
“Reducing emissions and preparing for climate change: 2015 Progress Report to Parliament. Summary and recommendations”
See Table A.1 Recommendation 19 in ‘Summary of Recommendations’ on Page 41 of http://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/6.736_CCC_ASC_Adaptation-Progress-Report_2015_FINAL_WEB_250615_RFS.pdf
which says:
19. Publish an effective policy framework for aviation emissions: plan for UK 2050 emissions at 2005 levels (implying around a 60% increase in demand) and push for strong international and EU policies.
Owner DfT. Deadline Ahead of 2016 Progress
The CCC says Link Page 129:
Emissions from aviation and shipping
(a) Aviation
Total UK aviation emissions were 34 MtCO2 in 2013, a reduction of 0.6% on 2012. This is in line with the trend in recent years, where aviation emissions fell by 0.7% on an average annual basis between 2009 and 2013 (Figure 4.8). Both domestic and international emissions fell in 2013.
• Domestic emissions fell 1.1% in 2013 to 1.8 MtCO2 .
• International emissions (which are not formally included in carbon budgets) fell 0.6% in 2013 to 32 MtCO2 .
Passenger numbers and flights increased in 2013 by 3.5% and 0.8% respectively. This suggests the reduction in emissions in 2013 was due to changes on the supply side (e.g. increases in load factor, improved fuel efficiency) and/or a shift in the route mix towards closer destinations.
A further set of tracking and monitoring indicators for aviation can be found in the Technical Annex (Technical Annex 4 – Transport).
The CCC says (Page 227) on locking in planning decisions :
“Planning decisions can directly help to increase resilience to climate risks, but can also lock future generations into a development pathway that increases vulnerability, or one that will be very costly to maintain or reverse.”
and (Page 51):
“Avoiding lock-in: preventing changes to the built environment that will lock future generations into increasing climate impacts, or that will be costly to avoid or reverse”.
And the CCC says:
Page 144
4. Progress in reducing emissions from aviation and shipping
Recent developments in aviation and shipping policy reflect progress developing existing and agreed approaches, at international, EU and UK levels:
• International – For aviation, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) continues to develop a Market Based Measure (MBM) to control international aviation emissions. In 2013 it was agreed this would be decided at their 2016 General Assembly, to come into force in 2020. Since then, the ICAO has established an Environment Advisory Group to oversee technical work related to the development of a global MBM system, and has recently completed a comprehensive stakeholder engagement programme. For shipping, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) continues to support implementation of the Energy Efficiency Design Index, which entered into force in 2013. In 2014 the IMO published updated projections of global shipping emissions to 2050, and also reached agreement in principle to develop a data collection system for fuel consumption in shipping.
• EU – Intra-EU aviation emissions continue to be covered by the EU ETS; this is a reduction of around 75% in the original full coverage which also included EU flights to and from non-EU countries. This reduction in coverage is in place until 2016, in order to allow the ICAO time to develop a global measure. In April 2015 the EU adopted legislation requiring ships using EU ports to report their annual greenhouse gas emissions from 2018. This is designed to contribute to building an international reporting system, and is the first step in the EU’s shipping strategy (where the second stated step is for emission reduction targets, and the third step is for further measures, including market instruments, in the medium to long-term).
• UK – In November 2014 the Airports Commission launched a consultation on the three options for airport expansion identified in their 2013 Interim Report. The purpose of the consultation was to inform their final report which is expected in summer 2015 and which will recommend one of the three options to Government.
In future, both aviation and shipping emissions are projected to rise in the absence of further measures. They can be reduced through a combination of fuel efficiency improvements, use of biofuels and, in aviation, a moderation in demand growth.
In the context of future policy and infrastructure investment decisions, appropriate long-term assumptions for Government planning are for aviation emissions to be around 2005 levels in 2050 (implying around a 60% increase in demand over the same period), and for shipping emissions to be around one-third lower than 2010 levels. Government should publish an effective policy framework for aviation emissions on this basis.
These planning assumptions should be regarded as proxies for outcomes under long-term international agreements. The Government should therefore continue to push for strong international and EU policies consistent with the 2°C climate objective, which will be required to unlock the full range of abatement potential whilst limiting risks of competitive distortions.
http://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/6.737_CCC-BOOK_WEB_250615_RFS.pdf
.
.
.