Difficult to see how Heathrow could prevent rise in staff road trips to/from airport with 3rd runway

Heathrow has told the DfT that there would be no higher a number of car trips to and from the airport with a 3rd runway than now. But is that actually credible? Neither the DfT nor Heathrow produce easy-to-find figures, but they be located with a bit of digging. There are probably about 76,000 staff at the airport at present. The October 2014 Jacobs report done for the Airports Commission said:  “Headline employee commuting mode share was assumed to be 43% public transport and 47% private vehicles (ie. about 35,700 came by car, and Jacobs states: “with the vast majority of those undertaken as single occupancy car trips.”) … Elsewhere the same document says “with the 47% public transport mode share split between 35% using bus and 12% using rail.” There are various estimates of how many on-airport staff there might be with a new runway. The Commission’s Carbon Traded Assessment of Need scenario anticipated the number of staff to be around 90,000, and their highest growth scenario about 115,000 staff. Heathrow said by 2030 trips by both staff and passengers to the airport will be 53% by public transport, and still 47% by car.  Nowhere is there anything to indicate that below 47% of airport employees would get to and from work by car. With 90,000 staff at Heathrow, if 47% travelled by car that would be 42,300 people, (or if 43% came by car it would be 38,700). If there were 100,000 on-airport staff, and 47% came by car, that would be 47,000 people (and if 43% came by car, 43,000). Those numbers are higher than today. This is not including people travelling to newly increased numbers of jobs in the area.
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Surface transport access to Heathrow Airport Presentation to the Assembly Transport Committee

There are a lot of useful figures, graphs, etc in a presentation by Transport for London (TfL) to the GLA’s Transport Committee, on 10th November 2015  here   The document shows how much surface access stress a Heathrow 3rd runway would cause to all the local infrastructure.

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Heathrow says as well as new rail routes such as  London’s east-west Crossrail line, bus routes will be extended, more electric charging points will be created for electric vehicles and car-sharing clubs for airport staff will be promoted.

The worst air quality is near junctions three and four of the M4, where the airport accounts for up to 16% of traffic.

Some of the measures Heathrow hopes will deal with the air pollution problem are:

• Direct rail links from Reading and Waterloo station will improve access by public transport.
• A new station for London’s east-west Crossrail line will be opened at Heathrow.
• Bus routes to the airport will be extended.
• More electric charging points will be created for electric vehicles.
• Car-sharing clubs for airport staff will be promoted.

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Staff transport to and from Heathrow

It is worth mentioning that after the main consultation and the subsidiary extra consultation on local air quality, the Airports Commission released the Jacobs report on Surface Access: Dynamic Modelling  (dated May 2015). This is at

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This analysis, by Jacobs, took the highest case for the numbers of passengers – the Airports Commission’s “carbon traded, global growth” (CT GG) scenario. (The figures are a bit higher than the “carbon traded, assessment of need” (CT AoN) scenario).   For 2030, with a 3rd runway, the CT GG figure of annual passengers is about 125 million, while the CT AoN is about 109 million.
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The numbers of passengers using public transport to get to and from Heathrow in 2030 are about 73 million in the  CT AoN scenario, and about 83.9 million in the CT GG scenario.
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This document also has the number on on-airport staff as about (see Tables 2.2 and 2.3 on page 8) as about 90,000 by 2030 in the CT AoN scenario, and about 115,000 [114,999]  in the CT GG scenario.  (There are perhaps – at a guess – around 67,000 on-airport staff now, but it is difficult to get a figure. It might have been about 76,000 in 2010 – but numbers fall due to greater productivity per worker year by year.  Heathrow’s own forecasts suggested about 72,100 on-airport employees with 82.5 million annual passengers, compared to about 73 million passengers now).
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The 2014 Jacobs report said:  “Headline employee commuting mode share was assumed to be 43% public transport and 47% private vehicles in both options, compared to 43% public transport and 47% private transport observed in 2013.” (sic). (Page 15 )   And (Page 74) “Similarly, around 43% of employees at Heathrow currently commute to the airport by car/taxi, with the 47% public transport mode share split between 35% using bus and 12% using rail.”
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A chart on Page 11 shows where Heathrow staff lived in 2013 /14.
heathrow-residence-of-employees-201314
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(Page 17)  2.3.28. As shown in Figure 9, the updated Heathrow staff travel survey in 2013/4 indicates that car (including motorcycle and taxi) remains the main mode of transport for employees to the airport, accounting for 50% of all surface access trips, with the vast majority of those undertaken as single occupancy car trips. Bus (including work bus/company transport) accounted for a further 35% with rail accounting for 12% (10% by tube, 1% by Heathrow Express and 1% by Heathrow Connect).
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A pie chart on Page 18 shows the various ways in which staff reached the airport, in 2013 / 2014.
heathrow-employee-moe-of-travel-201314
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If there are currently around  (very approximately)  76,000 on-airport staff ( link ) and 47% of them come by car, that is around 35,700 per year.
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“Employee mode share for future years was assessed within the Heathrow surface access model whereby the current public transport mode share of 43% was incrementally increased up to a maximum of 60% to assess the impact on the road and public transport network.”
(P 59)
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There is a chart on Page 62 indicating how many employee car trips there would be with different numbers of staff in each car. For example with just one person in each car, the number of car trips might be 48,000 – but with 1.2 passengers on average, it would be 40,000 (using the 2012 data).
“As the demand model for employees does not include a main mode choice element, the application of car occupancy has a linear impact on the number of car trips, with a 10% increase in employee occupancy reducing employee car trips by 10%.”
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Jacobs looked at the peak number of staff movements, to assess how many of the staff would travel at the same times.  Naturally not all staff travel to or from work at the same time. However, there is no reason to anticipate a large difference in times of day with a 3rd runway, than now.
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If the number of on-airport staff rose to 90,000, and 43% of them came by car, that is about 38,700 per year.   Or if 47% came by car, that would be  42.3 million.
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And if the number was as many as 100,000 (let alone 115,000 staff) the number would be 43,000 per year (or  if 47% came by car, that would be 54 million). Compared to about 36 million now.
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[Heathrow said in  Feb 2014  that “fewer than 65% of staff commute in single-occupancy vehicles.”  !?  Link  ]
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But Heathrow says:  “A key undertaking in this is that there will be no growth in airport-related traffic on the nearby road and motorway network, facilitated by enhanced public transport as part of the Airport Surface Access Strategy (ASAS).”  Link 
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Heathrow says that as a condition of the Terminal 5 Inquiry: “A limit on the number of car parking spaces for both passengers and staff to 42,000”.  [ link ]
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A Heathrow presentation dated 10.11.2015  says that by 2030 trips by both staff and passengers to the airport will be 53% by public transport.  [ Link ]  ie. still 47% by car.
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The Heathrow claim of no more cars is based on assuming a big switch in employee transport from private cars to public transport/cycling and car sharing and on that basis Heathrow have told the Commission that they do not see any need for widening the M4 and many other road schemes. The dynamic modelling report above led to another report
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which answered comments made about the need for additional road infrastructure and showed the pressures they expected the road network to come under both with general development in the area and that caused by an expanded airport.
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FoI request in 2014 on number of on-airport parking spaces at Heathrow

A Freedom of Information request in 2014 elicited this response from Heathrow to Hillingdon Borough Council:

14.8.2014

This said:

“As you will no doubt be aware, the number of HAL controlled car parking spaces that can be provided on airport land is limited to 42,000. This figure applies to public and staff but excludes construction worker parking (however this has also been provided for your reference). Additionally, within the total parking cap no more than 17,500 car parking spaces can be available to staff.

The latest figures are summarised below:

Public Parking

24,952

Staff Parking

13,496

Total HAL Controlled Parking

38,448

Total Capacity within Cap

3,552

Total Capacity within Staff Parking Cap

4,004

Construction Parking

839

Since the submission last year, the total number of HAL parking spaces has increased from 37,649 spaces to 38,448, which represents a 2% increase.  This increase can primarily be attributed to the opening of MSCP2.

Some additional capacity at T1 Business Car Park and Click Park on Sanctuary Road also contribute to the increase. Staff parking has seen a reduction in parking from 15,605 last year to 13,496 this year, representing a 14% decrease. This drop in parking is mainly due to the change in the Parking Express (PEx) site switching from staff to public parking.

https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/299539/response/737101/attach/3/387455%20FOI%204707197%20Heathrow%20Car%20Parking%20Reports%20response.zip

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