Study by CE Delft, for T&E, finds CO2 from ships and planes will wipe out half the savings to be made by cars and trucks

Growth in CO2 emissions from shipping and aviation will undo nearly half (43%) of the savings expected to be made by the rest of transport in Europe through to 2030, a new independent study by CE Delft has found. It means that almost half of the already-inadequate emissions savings expected in land transport will be cancelled out by ships and planes.  Under measures already in place, land transport is expected to consume 43 Mtoe (million tonnes of oil equivalent) less energy per year in 2030 than it did in 2010.  Even this 43 Mtoe cut is less than half of what will be required from land transport under the EU’s proposed 2030 Effort Sharing Regulation, by which cars, vans, trucks, trains and barges should cut their CO2 emissions by 30% compared to their 2005 levels. Yet by comparison with this 43 Mtoe cut by land transport, aviation and shipping are expected to consume 19 Mtoe MORE fuel annually in 2030 than in 2010. Bill Hemmings, aviation and shipping director at T&E, said: “Planes and ships are free riding at the expense of land transport’s already insufficient efforts to cut emissions.”  In January the European Commission will make a proposal on aviation’s future in the ETS.  The recent ICAO deal on aviation carbon is only for participating countries to offset but not reduce CO2, and on a voluntary basis.
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Ships and planes will wipe out half the CO2 emissions savings to be made by cars and trucks – study

December 6, 2016  (Transport & Environment)

Growth in emissions from shipping and aviation will undo nearly half (43%) of the savings expected to be made by the rest of transport in Europe through to 2030, a new  independent study has found. It means that almost half of the already-inadequate emissions savings expected in land transport will be cancelled out by ships and planes, according to the report commissioned by sustainable group Transport & Environment (T&E).

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Under measures already in place, land transport is expected to consume 43 Mtoe (million tonnes of oil equivalent) less energy per year in 2030 than it did in 2010, according to consultant CE Delft.[1]

Even this 43 Mtoe cut is less than half of what will be required from land transport under the EU’s proposed 2030 Effort Sharing Regulation.[2]

Yet ships and planes in Europe will consume 19 Mtoe more fuel annually in 2030 than they did 20 years earlier. So the growth in these two sectors will undo almost half of the already insufficient progress made by cars, vans, trucks, rail and inland navigation.

Bill Hemmings, aviation and shipping director at T&E, said: “Planes and ships are free riding at the expense of land transport’s already insufficient efforts to cut emissions. This is not only unfair but a roadblock to Europe meeting its own climate commitments. Governments need to think again and include shipping in the emissions trading system and strengthen its aviation provisions.”

Shipping emissions are totally unregulated but next week the European Parliament will consider a proposal to fix this by creating a Maritime Climate Fund and including ship emissions in the EU’s emissions trading system (ETS).

In January the European Commission will make a proposal on aviation’s future in the ETS.

Shipping CO2 emissions can be reduced cumulatively by 80 million tonnes by 2030 if the sector is included in the ETS, compared to the status quo where its emissions are not regulated, according to the European Commission.

ce-delft-report-aviation-and-shipping-co2

The difference between action and inaction up to 2030 amounts to the total annual emissions of Austria.[3] Currently MEPs in the environment committee are discussing whether to include the sector in the ETS through a Maritime Climate Fund. The fund would rebate a portion of ETS revenues back to the sector to finance sustainability projects.

Shipping, one of the fastest growing sources of transport emissions, is projected to account for 17% of global emissions by 2050. Yet the International Maritime Organisation has decided to delay by at least seven years any agreement on introducing a global measure to reduce GHGs from the sector with the actual implementation date possibly many years further away.

Aviation is currently responsible for an estimated 5% of global warming. Aircraft CO2 alone is projected to quadruple and will potentially account for 22% of all CO2 emitted globally in 2050. A global agreement will see airlines in participating countries offset but not reduce CO2 emissions from aircraft, and on a voluntary basis.

Notes to editors:

[1] CE Delft’s based its calculations on the European Commission’s own projections for greenhouse gas emissions to 2050.

[2] The Effort Sharing Decision establishes binding annual greenhouse gas emission targets for EU member states. These targets concern emissions from most sectors not included in the ETS, such as land transport. The Effort Sharing requirements of land transport – cars, vans, trucks, trains and barges – are calculated based on a 30% reduction of their 2005 emissions levels.

[3] EC, 2013, Impact Assessment, Accompanying the Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on the monitoring, reporting and verification of carbon dioxide emissions from maritime transport and amending Regulation (EU) n° 525/2013

https://www.transportenvironment.org/press/ships-and-planes-will-wipe-out-half-emissions-savings-be-made-cars-and-trucks-%E2%80%93-study

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This report analyses the demand for liquid fossil fuels in the EU transport sector over the years 2010 to 2030, notably for the sectors maritime transport and aviation. The estimations are based on figures published in the EU energy transport and GHG trends to 2050 – reference scenario for 2013 that accompanied the 2030 climate package Impact Assessment of the European Commission, as well as on the analysis underlying the European Commission’s Impact Assessment on MRV regulation for the maritime transport sector.

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Planes and ships hampering road transport’s climate efforts

January 5, 2017

The extent to which transport is falling behind in reducing its CO2 emissions is highlighted in a new report by the Dutch consultancy CE Delft. It shows that emission reductions from land-based transport are still significantly behind what they need to be, and nearly half of the forecast reductions are set to be wiped out by the growth in emissions from aviation and shipping.
The report predicts that growth in emissions from shipping and aviation will add 19 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in emissions between 2010 and 2030. This is nearly half (43%) of the savings currently forecast to be made by the rest of transport in Europe in the same period. Under measures already in place, land transport is expected to consume 43 Mtoe less per year in 2030 than it did in 2010, but that will mean transport as a whole is only cutting its CO2 emissions by 22 Mtoe.

That is well below what it needs to achieve under the EU’s effort-sharing scheme. The effort-sharing decision established obligatory annual greenhouse gas emission targets for EU states covering most sectors not included in the Emissions Trading System (ETS), such as land transport. Under the scheme, land transport – cars, vans, trucks, trains and barges – needs to reduce emissions by around 30% on 2005 levels, or 138 Mtoe. That means the 43Mtoe cut, for which it is on course to achieve, is less than a third of the required amount, or just 16% if aviation and shipping were included.

Bill Hemmings, T&E’s aviation and shipping director, said: ‘Planes and ships are free-riding at the expense of land transport’s already insufficient efforts to cut emissions. This is not only unfair but a roadblock to Europe meeting its own climate commitments. Governments need to think again and include shipping in the ETS and strengthen its aviation provisions.’

Tackling the environmental impact of aviation and shipping has been problematic for more than two decades. Aviation was included in the EU ETS from the start of 2012, but the EU was forced to cut back its environmental scope by 75% following international pressure to give the International Civil Aviation Organisation time to act. The Commission is due to report later this month on the outcome of ICAO’s recent assembly where a voluntary offsetting regime, to begin in 2021, was agreed. The aviation ETS reverted to full scope on 1 January 2017

Shipping is back in the spotlight after the International Maritime Organisation’s October meeting effectively delayed any decisions on a global reduction target or market based measure until 2023 at the earliest. Just before Christmas, the European Parliament’s environment committee voted convincingly to create a Maritime Climate Fund under the EU ETS. Shipowners could either voluntarily opt in to the fund, or alternatively be obliged to join the ETS. If agreed by the full Parliament and then in negotiations with member states later this year, the scheme would become operational in 2023 unless the IMO had a comparable global scheme in place by 2021.

https://www.transportenvironment.org/news/planes-and-ships-hampering-road-transport%E2%80%99s-climate-efforts

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