Climate Assembly report: members aware future aviation CO2 has to be limited

The Climate Assembly was set up by the UK government in 2019. It consisted of 108 citizens, selected to be representative of the population and its views. They met over 6 weekends, with expert guidance and information, to discuss how the UK could get to net zero carbon by 2050. One of the many issues discussed was air travel. Overall there was wide support among the Assembly for limiting the growth of the sector, to some extent.  The anticipated growth of about 65% (from 2018 to 2050) was seen as too much. Many believed there would be advances in technology that would allow for increased numbers of passengers, but keeping to 30 MtCO2 aviation emissions by 2050 (the CCC’s scenario). There was support for increasing the price of flying for frequent fliers, and those who flew long distances.  Assembly members wanted to see the airline industry invest in greenhouse gas removals, and in lower carbon technologies (which would make flying more expensive). Members wanted more engagement with the UK population, to understand the necessary changes. They wanted more parity between the cost of rail and flying, where flying is now often hugely cheaper.  The committees behind the report have asked Prime Minister Boris Johnson to respond before the end of the year.
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Climate change: Tax frequent fliers, get rid of SUVs, government told

10th September 2020

A frequent flyer tax, phasing out polluting SUVs and restricting cars in city centres are among climate change solutions suggested by members of the public.

A citizens’ assembly of 108 people from all walks of life published its report after weeks of debate.

They proposed curbing road building and using the pandemic to cut emissions.

MPs said the report offered a “unique insight”, but activists Extinction Rebellion said it didn’t go far enough.

The report says the government must show leadership on climate change and insists climate policies must be fair to all – especially the poorest in society.

Its radical conclusions may offer political cover to ministers who’re typically nervous of a public backlash against policies that affect lifestyles.

What is the citizens’ assembly?

The group, or citizens’ assembly, was set up by six government select committees – groups of MPs who look at what the government is doing and scrutinise policy.

Members of the assembly were chosen to represent a spectrum of views from all over the UK and committed 60 hours of their time to studying and debating climate change.

They met over six weekends and were asked how to come up with ideas to help the UK achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Their conclusions have been published in a report that is more than 550 pages.

What have they said?

The members said it was “imperative that there is strong and clear leadership from government” to tackle climate change.

One member, Sue, from Bath, said: “Even with the country still reeling from coronavirus, it’s clear the majority of us feel prioritising net zero policy is not only important, but achievable.”

Hamish, a software engineer from rural Aberdeenshire, told BBC News the government needed “to develop a long-term strategy to help us”.

A key theme of the report is education. Ibrahim, a GP from Surrey, said: “The media has to take a role – schools as well. We perhaps need to look at the curriculum.

“You can’t go to someone and say ‘you need to switch to the hydrogen boiler because it’s low CO2’ but they have no idea [about it]. You’re more likely to get a buy-in from people when they know about the issues.”

Members said the government should start phasing out the sale of polluting new vehicles such as SUVs, and clamp down on adverts for highly-polluting goods.

Another central message is the need for policies to be fair. Amanda, from Kent, said: “Electric cars have to be more affordable to everybody – not just people who earn enough money.”

They also supported higher taxes on frequent fliers, and investment in clean aviation technology.

Tracey, a mother from Northern Ireland, said: “I would be a frequent flier myself – so I would say there needs to be something there to stop us from taking so many flights – to reduce our emissions.”

On the subject of what we eat and how we use the land, the assembly urged a voluntary cut of 20-40% in eating red meat.

“The government can’t legislate against eating red meat,” Amanda told us, “but with education, advertising and labelling I think we can change their attitudes towards eating red meat – as we did with smoking.”

They also said:

  • Businesses should make products using less energy and materials
  • People should repair goods and share more, instead of owning all their appliances
  • The UK should get more power from offshore and onshore wind, and solar power
  • New housing developments must have good access to facilities through walking and cycling

Most members were not very keen on nuclear – or on burning wood in power stations – and most weren’t confident in carbon capture and storage.

They think the government should be harnessing the Covid crisis to limit support for high-carbon industries.

What’s the reaction been?

The MPs behind the assembly said the report “provides a unique insight into the thinking of an informed public to the trade-offs and changes required to help deliver on the objective that parliament has agreed”. They said: “Their work merits action.”

Crispin Truman, from the countryside charity CPRE, said it shows “public appetite to end the UK’s contribution to the climate emergency has far outstripped government action.”

And Tom Burke, from the climate change think tank, e3g, added: “This is a striking tribute to the common sense of the British public. There is a clear lesson for politicians and editors across the political spectrum about the role our citizens are capable of playing in shaping public policy.”

However, radical green group Extinction Rebellion (XR) condemned the proposals as too timid to meet internationally-agreed proposals limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5C. They warned that the report could get buried in government bureaucracy.

What happens now?

The committees behind the report have asked Prime Minister Boris Johnson to respond before the end of the year.

This may be challenging as, according to a recent report by the Institute for Government, Covid and Brexit have forced climate change down the government’s priority list – a claim the government denies.

A government spokesperson said it would study the report.

The organisers of the assembly have requested that only first names of members are used in the media.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54087176#

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Climate Assembly UK full report

10th September 2020

https://www.climateassembly.uk/report/read/#preface

 

It is a very long report, but below is the section on aviation.

From the report:

https://www.climateassembly.uk/report/read/how-we-travel-by-air.html#how-we-travel-by-air

How we travel by air

Air travel accounts for 22% of the UK’s total greenhouse gas emissions from transport, and 7% of the UK’s total greenhouse gas emissions overall. Emissions from flying have grown significantly in the last 30 years.10

Key recommendations

Assembly members identified 14 considerations that they would like government and Parliament to bear in mind when looking air travel and the path to net zero. A full list can be found in Chapter 4. Assembly members’ ten highest priority considerations were:

  • Speed up technological progress;
  • Influence the rest of the world;
  • Even out the costs of air travel compared to alternatives;
  • Frequent fliers and those that fly further should pay more;
  • Stay competitive and protect the economy;
  • Engage the population in making the necessary changes;
  • Take account of different travel needs (e.g. people with family far away);
  • Promote and incentivise UK holidays;
  • Scrap incentives to make people fly more (e.g. air miles, first class);
  • Ban polluting private jets and helicopters, moving to electric when possible.

What the future should look like

Assembly members would like to see a solution to air travel emissions that allows people to continue to fly. Assembly members felt that this would protect people’s freedom and happiness, as well as having benefits for business and the economy. Assembly members’ support for continued flying did, however, have limits. Assembly members resoundingly rejected a future in which air passenger numbers would rise by as much as 65% between 2018 and 2050, labelling it “counterproductive”. Instead, assembly members sought to find an acceptable balance between achieving the net zero target, impacts on lifestyles, reliance on new technologies, and investment in alternatives. Assembly members recommended a future in which:

  • Growth in air passenger numbers is limited to 25–50% between 2018 and 2050, depending on how quickly technology progresses. This is a lower rate of growth per year than was seen in recent times prior to Covid-19;
  • 30m tonnes of CO2 is still emitted by the aviation sector in 2050 and requires removing from the atmosphere;
  • There is investment in alternatives to air travel.

How change should happen

80% of assembly members ‘strongly agreed’ or ‘agreed’ that taxes that increase as people fly more often and as they fly further should be part of how the UK gets to get zero (see Figure 1). Assembly members saw these taxes as fairer than alternative policy options. They also suggested a number of points around their implementation for policy-makers to bear in mind. Assembly members would like to see the airline industry invest in greenhouse gas removals. 75% of assembly members ‘strongly agreed’ or ‘agreed’ that this should be part of how the UK gets to net zero. There was also significant support for financial incentives from government to encourage a wide range of organisations to invest. Assembly members tended to feel that ‘the polluter should pay’, although some suggested a need to monitor, scrutinise and perhaps enforce airline industry investment to ensure it actually takes place. Assembly members strongly supported the need to invest in the development and use of new technologies for air travel. 87% of assembly members ‘strongly agreed’ or ‘agreed’ that this should be part of how the UK gets to net zero. These technologies could include electric aircraft and synthetic fuels.

https://www.climateassembly.uk/report/read/#preface

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The full report as a pdf:

https://www.climateassembly.uk/report/read/final-report.pdf

The full report online:

https://www.climateassembly.uk/report/read/#preface   (list of contents at the bottom)

P 120 onwards in the pdf.

How we travel by air

  1. Assembly members identified 14 considerations that they would like government and Parliament to bear in mind when looking at air travel and the path to net zero. These included speeding up progress on technology, influencing the rest of the world, and evening out the cost of air travel versus alternative forms of transport by making the latter cheaper and better.
  2. Assembly members would like to see a solution to air travel emissions that allows people to continue to fly. Assembly members felt that this would protect people’s freedom and happiness, as well as having benefits for business and the economy. However their support for continued flying had limits. Assembly members resoundingly rejected a future in which air passenger numbers would rise by as much as 65% between 2018 and 2050, labelling it “counterproductive”. Instead, assembly members sought to find an acceptable balance between achieving the net zero target, impacts on lifestyles, reliance on new technologies, and investment in alternatives. Their preferences point to a future in which:
    • Air passenger numbers increase by 25–50% between 2018 and 2050, depending on how quickly technology progresses. This is a lower rate of growth per year than was seen in recent times1 prior to Covid-19;
    • 30m tonnes of CO2 is still emitted by the aviation sector in 2050 and requires removing from the atmosphere;
    • There is investment in alternatives to air travel.
  3. 80% of assembly members ‘strongly agreed’ or ‘agreed’ that taxes that increase as people fly more often and as they fly further should be part of how the UK gets to net zero. Assembly members saw these taxes as fairer than alternative policy options.
  4. Assembly members would like to see the airline industry invest in greenhouse gas removals. 75% of assembly members ‘strongly agreed’ or ‘agreed’ that this should be part of how the UK gets to net zero. There was also significant support for financial incentives from government to encourage a wide range of organisations to invest. Assembly members’ tended to feel that ‘the polluter should pay’, although some suggested a need to monitor, scrutinise and perhaps enforce airline industry investment to ensure it actually takes place.
  5. 87% of assembly members strongly agreed that we need to invest in the development and use of new technologies for air travel. These technologies could include electric aircraft and synthetic fuels.

 

How we travel by air

Air travel accounts for 22% of the UK’s total greenhouse gas emissions from transport, and 7% of the UK’s total greenhouse gas emissions overall.2 Emissions from flying have grown significantly in the last 30 years.3

Air travel’s contribution to UK emissions comes from both:

  • Domestic travel – travel within the borders of the UK; and
  • International travel – travel that starts in the UK but ends in another country. 96% of the UK’s air travel emissions are from international flights.4

Excluded from these figures are flights from other countries to the UK (for example, return flights from holidays), or travel that UK residents take within other countries or from one foreign country to another. Climate Assembly UK followed the same criteria when deciding what was, and was not, in scope for its discussions.

 

Air travel also includes both passenger or ‘personal’ transport, and freight. Personal transport is what people use to travel for pleasure, like going on holiday or visiting family and friends. It also covers travel for work. Freight is transport used to move goods. Climate Assembly UK considered personal transport only. It did not look at freight.5 This followed guidance from Parliament that, if there was not time to consider both, its committees most wanted to hear assembly members’ views on personal transport.

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and there are many pages about what the Assembly considered and elements of what it decided.

https://www.climateassembly.uk/report/read/how-we-travel-by-air.html#how-we-travel-by-air-how-we-travel-by-air

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