Academic study suggests post-Covid re-think of size of airline sector, its costs and impacts
In a new paper, published in Science Direct, Professor Stefan Gossling looks at the future of the airline industry, especially after the set-back it has had from Covid. He says it is important to “think the unthinkable”, and not only what is possible for aviation, but what is desirable for society … most stakeholders in industry and policymakers would agree that it is desirable for aviation to become more resilient financially and more sustainable climatically … COVID-19 has forced many airlines to reduce their fleets, retire old aircraft, or stop serving long-haul destinations … As a result, air transport capacity is diminished. Further reductions in capacity may be achieved by reducing subsidies … A scenario for a resilient aviation system should have a starting point in the question of how much air transport is needed …where risks are accounted for, and where their cost is part of the price paid for air travel. In a situation of reduced supply, there should be an opportunity for airlines to increase profitability … Many questions need to be asked, such as those addressing volume growth, the sector’s reliance on State aid, its unresolved environmental impacts, and hence the basic assumptions on which aviation operates.
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Scientific paper:
Risks, resilience, and pathways to sustainable aviation: A COVID-19 perspective
5. Thinking the unthinkable
As proposed by Banister and Hickman (2013), it is important to “think the unthinkable”, i.e. to consider longer-term transportation scenarios that embrace possibility, plausibility and desirability. It may be argued that air transport futures have been discussed mostly in terms of “possibility”, and less in terms of plausibility or desirability. “Possibilities” are framed economically, and by a limited number of actors, the proponents of volume growth. There is a notable absence of any discussion of alternative pathways. Yet, most stakeholders in industry and policymakers would agree that it is desirable for aviation to become more resilient financially and more sustainable climatically. It would seem that for this to happen, very radical changes are necessary in terms of measuring economic performance, the progress and potential of technology change, and the limits to sustainable transitions implied by a rapidly growing transport system (Gössling and Higham, 2020).
In conclusion, this discussion has revealed unsurmountable conflicts inherent in the proposition of continued volume growth and a reduction in risks and vulnerabilities. Hence, a reorientation is necessary that includes the possibility of a shrinking of the global air transport system to increase its desirability for society. It is also plausible. COVID-19 has forced many airlines to reduce their fleets, retire old aircraft, or stop serving long-haul destinations. Airlines have gone bankrupt (Flybee, South African Airways, Eurowings), or entered Voluntary Administration (Air Mauritius, Virgin Australia) (TTRWeekly, 2020). As a result, air transport capacity is diminished. Further reductions in capacity may be achieved by reducing subsidies. This should affect low-cost carriers such as Ryanair, an airline sometimes offering transport at a price below the cost of fuel, while counting among the European Union’s top 10 greenhouse gas emitters (The Guardian, 2019).
A scenario for a resilient aviation system should have a starting point in the question of how much air transport is needed; here, the COVID-19 pandemic leaves much room for critical reflection. A desirable aviation system is also one where risks are accounted for, and where their cost is part of the price paid for air travel. In a situation of reduced supply, there should be an opportunity for airlines to increase profitability. COVID-19 thus offers an opportunity to rethink global air transport. Many questions, such as those addressing volume growth, the sector’s reliance on State aid, its unresolved environmental impacts, and hence the basic assumptions on which aviation operates, will be difficult to ask. However, risks and vulnerabilities have to be weighed against short-term benefits, if the sector’s future resilience is to improve. If there is one lesson to be learned from the COVID-19 crisis, it is the demonstration that nation states can take radical structural actions to deal with emergencies.
Author statement
The idea for this opinion piece was developed by the author, who also wrote the entire text.
By Professor Stefan Gossling https://www.stefangossling.de/
See the whole article at
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699720305160?dgcid=author#bbib2
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