ICAO hopes for “net zero” aviation by 2050 – based on offsets, SAF etc
At the latest 3-yearly meeting of ICAO in Montreal, an announcement was made to have an “aspirational” goal of “net zero” carbon emissions by 2050. This is a move towards meeting the Paris Agreement objectives. It was made by the assembled transport ministers. However, this depends largely on buying carbon offsets, and availability of low carbon fuels – neither of which may actually work. It is a bit better than the earlier targets by ICAO and IATA, which had two global aspirational goals for the international aviation sector, of 2% annual fuel efficiency improvement through to 2050, “carbon neutral growth” from 2020 onwards, and a net cut of 50% by 2050. Neither mention reducing air travel demand or the number of flights. Industry trade body IATA also says it backs the goal despite reported opposition from Chinese airlines. The aspiration for a target for aviation carbon is supported more by airlines from the high-income “climate ambition countries, but there is opposition from Russia, China and other countries with relatively new aviation industries. They don’t want their growth hampered. ICAO also wants “viable financing and investment support” from government for the novel fuels that it hopes to use.
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International air travel set for ‘aspirational’ 2050 net zero goal
7/10/2022
By Joe Lo (Climate Home News)
The International Civil Aviation Organization has agreed a 2050 net zero emissions goal for aviation but its credibility is in doubt
Governments approved a net zero by 2050 emissions target for international air travel on Friday despite opposition from Russia and China.
The “aspirational goal” was signed off by transport ministers at the International Civil Aviation Organisation (Icao) assembly in Montreal, Canada.
But there is currently no viable technology to eliminate planes’ emissions and airlines and governments at Icao have not contemplated reducing flying itself.
Airlines have largely chosen to use much-criticised carbon offset schemes to meet their climate targets.
A group of mostly high-income countries calling itself the “climate ambition coalition” pushed for the 2050 net zero goal against opposition from Russia and China.
Industry trade body Iata also backed the goal despite reported opposition from Chinese airlines.
At a preparatory meeting of the UN’s aviation body in July, 2050 net zero was put forward to the tri-annual Icao assembly in Montreal this week.
At the assembly, US transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg said the goal was “achievable if we act” and called on the assembly to “bring Icao fully into the world’s fight against climate change”.
New Zealand’s representative wrote that the target was “the minimum aspiration this sector should aim for”.
But Russia’s representative told the assembly that the target “will without a doubt impose an unsustainable burden on the industry”.
China used a climate justice argument. Its delegation said the net zero goal “would lead to discriminatory market distortions to the disadvantage of developing countries” and that “China firmly opposes developed countries’ attempt to transfer their responsibility for emissions reductions to developing countries”.
But the majority of countries supported the net zero goal. It has been approved by the executive committee and goes to plenary today. The executive committee and plenary members are mostly the same people so it is likely to pass.
From the assembly in Montreal, the ICSA (International Coalition for Sustainable Aviation) ’s Tim Johnson said: “We hope Icao can agree a net zero 2050 goal today that would begin a process to bring aviation in line with the Paris Agreement. This has been a hard fought negotiation but the really hard work starts now to introduce the measures that will decarbonise the industry.”
Other campaigners were more critical. Anne Kretzschmar from Stay Grounded said: “Adopting a climate target with no binding commitments for states and no interim targets is like building an aeroplane without wings”.
Johnson said that green groups had pushed for interim targets in Montreal and, while the US and some European states had supported them, they had not wanted to jeopardise an agreement by pushing too hard for them.
Transport and Environment’s aviation lead Jo Dardenne questioned how aviation would meet its target.
“Having a long term aspirational goal on one side and then having a poor offsetting scheme [Corsia] on the other side and defending that it’s going to get aviation down to zero is just laughable,” she said.
The industry’s main technological solution to aviation emissions is the use of “sustainable aviation fuels” made out of plant matter. A recent report from the Clean Air Task Force (CATF) cautioned growing crops for energy has some downsides for the climate and cannot be produced at the scale needed to meet projected future aviation demand.
Instead, CATF says governments should research next-generation fuels like those based on clean hydrogen. These are years away from being commercially available.
Airlines have used offsets to claim emissions reductions. But these offsets, including Icao’s own Corsia scheme, have been widely criticised. Recently, budget European airline Easyjet said it would no longer use offsets and would focus on reducing its own emissions instead.
See the earlier ICAO and IATA “targets” for cutting aviation CO2 (while increasing emissions ….)
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Statement from UK’s new Transport Secretary, Anne-Marie Trevelyan.
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Climate change: World aviation agrees ‘aspirational’ net zero plan
7.10.2022 (BBC)
By Rowenna Hoskin and Matt McGrath (BBC) BBC News Climate and Science
The world has finally agreed on a long-term plan to curb carbon emissions from flying.
At a meeting in Montreal, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), pledged to support an “aspirational” net zero aviation goal by 2050.
The plan, seen as a compromise by many, was accepted by the 193 countries who are members of ICAO.
However green groups say the deal is weak and not legally binding.
When the world came together in Paris in 2015 to agree on a long-term plan to tackle climate change, two key industries were missing – aviation and shipping.
The airline industry contributes around 2.5% of global carbon emissions, but scientists believe it has a much higher impact on climate change than this figure suggests.
This is because of the multiple impacts of flying including the altitudes planes fly at and the effects of contrails – the water-vapour trails produced by engines.
US Special Presidential envoy on climate change, John Kerry, welcomed the deal.
In a tweet he said: “Thrilled to see international aviation commit at @icao 41st Assembly to a sustainable future with a long-term climate goal… to help put aviation on the path to net zero by 2050.”
While it is not a global regulator of the airline industry, ICAO is the UN body that promotes co-operation among member states on air transport. It cannot impose rules on countries, but national governments usually abide by what is agreed at ICAO meetings.
The air transport industry has been under increasing pressure from consumers and scientists to try to find ways to decarbonise air travel for several years, with limited success.
At the ICAO triennial assembly in Montreal, member states finally agreed to support a net zero target for 2050, despite grumbles from China and Russia.
The UK was one of the first countries to include aviation emission in their climate targets in 2021 and helped launch the International Aviation Climate Ambition Coalition at COP26.
They’ve been amongst 56 countries pushing for an ambitious deal in Montreal.
“This week, members of the International Civil Aviation Organisation agreed to a collective goal of net zero international aviation by 2050 – a historic milestone, not just for the future of flying, but for the wider international commitment to achieve net zero,” said Transport Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan.
“It represents years of tireless work by the UK and its partners to lead the world towards a clean future for all.”
However, environmentalists have major reservations about the agreed resolutions.
“You shouldn’t be fooled by the results of this assembly. This isn’t going to solve aviation’s problem,” said Jo Dardenne of campaign group Transport & Environment.
“The only way we’re going to solve it is to stop burning kerosene. The way that you stop burning kerosene is by pricing kerosene more effectively and investing in alternative solutions.”
At the meeting countries also agreed on changes to a scheme that would deal with a large part of the future emissions from airlines through a system of carbon offsets. [CORSIA]
Offsetting is a process where companies or individuals buy carbon credits from schemes such as forestry plantations to cancel out carbon emissions from activities like flying.
ICAO has now agreed that airlines will use the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA).
Under the scheme airlines would agree a baseline year and all future emissions above the level of that period would have to be offset.
Initially they had planned to use an average of flying emissions in 2019 and 2020 – but the onset of the Covid pandemic saw air transport decline rapidly.
While campaigners were delighted with the prospect of a low baseline that would have forced airlines to offset far more of their emissions, the industry baulked.
After discussions in Montreal the threshold has now been set as 85% of 2019 carbon emissions, allowing a higher level of carbon dioxide pollution before airlines must purchase offsets.
Planting trees is one of the most common methods of offsetting carbon emissions
In previous analysis, campaigners found that CORSIA would add just €2.40 to the price of a long-haul flight in 2030 to offset passenger’s emissions.
They now say that the scheme agreed in Montreal will only cover 22% of future emissions in 2030.
Supporters of the agreement believe that as well as offsetting, airlines will now speed up the development of greener jet fuels, and other technical improvements to decarbonise flying.
“A goal is better than nothing but it is up to member states now to implement the proper regulations,” said Jo Dardenne.
“Once this target is there, even if it is non-binding, politically it still forces member states to be ambitious in their climate plans.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63165607?
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States adopt net-zero 2050 global aspirational goal for international flight operations
Montréal, 7 October 2022
ICAO press release
Culminating 2 weeks of intensive diplomacy by over 2500 delegates from 184 States and 57 organizations at the 41st ICAO Assembly, ICAO Member States adopted a collective long-term global aspirational goal (LTAG) of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
The achievement of the LTAG will rely on the combined effect of multiple CO2 emissions reduction measures, including the accelerated adoption of new and innovative aircraft technologies, streamlined flight operations, and the increased production and deployment of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF).
“States’ adoption of this new long term goal for decarbonized air transport, following the similar commitments from industry groups, will contribute importantly to the green innovation and implementation momentum which must be accelerated over the coming decades to ultimately achieve emissions free powered flight,” stressed the President of the ICAO Council Mr. Salvatore Sciacchitano.
“Countries have achieved some tremendous and very important diplomatic progress at this event, and on topics of crucial importance to the future sustainability of our planet and the air transport system which serves and connects its populations,” commented ICAO Secretary General Juan Carlos Salazar.
States at the ICAO Assembly also collectively underscored the importance of viable financing and investment support to the new CO2 emissions goal’s attainment, and fully supported the new ICAO Assistance, Capacity-building and Training for Sustainable Aviation Fuels (ACT-SAF) programme to accelerate the availability and use of SAF – requesting in addition that a third ICAO Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels be convened in 2023.
Other notable environmental developments at the 41st ICAO Assembly included the completion of the first periodic review of the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). Countries agreed on a new CORSIA baseline from 2024 onwards, defined as 85% of CO2 emissions in 2019, and on revised percentages for the sectoral and individual growth factors to be used for the calculation of offsetting requirements from 2030 onwards.
The historic outcome of the Assembly were acknowledged to be thanks to the outstanding leadership and excellent chairwomanship of the meeting by Ms. Poppy Khoza, the Director General of Civil Aviation of South Africa, and the first ever female President of the ICAO Assembly.
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See earlier:
Airline industry needs to at least aim for net-zero by 2050 – rather than its current even weaker targets
In 2019 the ICAO confirmed its two global aspirational goals for the international aviation sector of 2% annual fuel efficiency improvement through to 2050, and “carbon neutral growth” from 2020 onwards. The IATA has its own target of aiming for “an average improvement in fuel efficiency of 1.5% per year from 2009 to 2020; a cap on net aviation CO2 emissions from 2020 (carbon-neutral growth); and a reduction in net aviation CO2 emissions of 50% by 2050, relative to 2005 levels.” Now there is greater pressure on the aviation sector do actually do something to reduce its carbon emissions. In 2020, the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG) produced its Waypoint 2050 analysis, hoping aviation “should be in a position to meet net-zero emissions at a global level by 2060 or 2065”. But now ATAG’s director said it would soon publish an updated version of the Waypoint 2050 report to be more ambitious. The number of airlines that have made a commitment to aim for net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 is now 61. There is huge dependence on “sustainable aviation fuels” (which only exist in tiny amounts now, and will be expensive) providing a route to net-zero. The amounts needed by aviation in coming decades might be x8,000 as much as exist now, with production facilities costing billions of $.
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