Analysis by NATS for Airports Commission shows a 4th Heathrow runway would cut flight path capacity elsewhere

An article in the Times says a submission by NATS, the air traffic control service to the Airports Commission warns of the problems that would be caused if a 4th (not only a 3rd) runway was built.  The Airports Commission said in its interim report, that it considers another new runway might be “needed” by 2050, if the first new runway capacity has been filled by then.  Even one new runway is marginal, at best, for carbon emissions. [A 2nd new runway cannot be built and used, keeping within UK carbon targets]. There are fears that if Heathrow was allowed a 3rd runway, it would effectively become a Trojan Horse for a 4th runway – Heathrow airport has said that from 2030 a decision would have to be taken on a 4th. The effect on flight paths would mean fewer planes could use the other London airports. The Times says a 4th runway at Heathrow would reduce the combined capacity of Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton, Birmingham, City and Southend airports by 9%. It would cut capacity relative to a 3-runway Heathrow by 18%  due to the disruption to flight paths to the other main airports.
.

 

Fourth runway at Heathrow ‘would block flight paths to other airports’

  • Those against Heathrow expansion said the analysis was a ‘game-changer’ in the debate – Toby Melville/Reuters
By Philip Pank, Transport Correspondent (the Times)
March 10th 2014
Full article at
Extracts:
Those against Heathrow expansion said that the analysis, seen byThe Times, was a “game-changer” in the debate over airport expansion as it undermined the long-term case for doubling the size of the country’s biggest airport.
…….
Sir Howard Davies, head of the commission, said that a third runway could be built by 2030 but it would be full by 2050.  [Airports Commission interim report, December 2013    This says on Page 12: “The Commission’s forecasts also indicate that there is likely to be a demand case for a second additional runway in operation by 2050 or, in some scenarios, earlier.” ]
…..
The Nats report, submitted to the commission last November,  [the report can be found at  Long term options: consultancy reports  The NATS report is at  NATS Advice on airspace November 2013 ] concluded that construction of a fourth runway would cut the maximum possible number of flights into the main airports to 1,550,000 from 1,680,000. Flights at Gatwick, Stansted and Luton would be reduced by 50%. London City would see a 25% reduction.  [See tables copied below – Page 41 of the NATS report].
3rd and 4th Heathrow runway info from NATS
…..
In its submission, Heathrow said that a third runway would meet the demand for air travel to 2040 but that from 2030 a decision would have to be taken on a fourth.  [The Heathrow submission to the Airports Commission in summer 2013  which is at  http://www.heathrowairport.com/static/HeathrowAboutUs/Downloads/PDF/long-term-hub-capacity-options_LHR.pdf   said:  “Heathrow regards any longer term forecasts to 2050 to be too uncertain to be a reliable planning tool at this stage. The uncertainty over long run demand makes adding a third runway at Heathrow an attractive option, as a fourth runway could be added in the longer term if it was ever required.”   See also story below from 2008] 
….
The Nats analysis highlights ….. potential limitations of a new hub in the Thames Estuary. It could increase total airport capacity by just 6%, because of the closure of Heathrow, City and Southend airports. However, if runways were tilted to run northeast-southwest, the airport would increase total capacity by 24%.
.
.
.
.
.


.

Going back to 2008, Colin Matthew’s predecessor, Stephen Nelson refused to rule out the possibility of a 4th Heathrow runway :

Further Heathrow expansion ‘not ruled out’; could want forth runway and seventh terminal

23.01.08  (UK Airport News Info)

The chief executive of Heathrow Airport operator BAA told the London Assembly yesterday that he could not rule out the need for more ‘capacity’ at the worlds busiest international hub, beyond its current expansion proposals. The comments raised the fears that a fourth runway and a seventh terminal could eventually wanted at Heathrow.

The assembly’s environment committee met to consider the environmental impact of a proposed plan to add a third runway and a sixth terminal at Heathrow. This plans would require the village of Sipson to be bulldozed and 50 communities and towns could suffer increased noise. They will have an impact on the London boroughs of Ealing, Hammersmith and Fulham and the boroughs of Slough, Windsor and Maidenhead, Spelthorne and South Bucks District Council.

Local councils, campaigners and industry leaders attended the meeting, where the chief executive of BAA, Stephen Nelson, said that unlike his predecessor, who ruled out a further expansion in 1994 when plans for Terminal 5 were discussed, he would not commit to anything.

Mr Nelson was asked whether he was saying that there could be a fourth runway and seventh terminal. He replied: ‘It would be inappropriate for me to speculate on whether there would be a further case for expansion beyond 2030.’ He said he did not want to give ‘hostages to fortune’ by saying that the third runway would be the last big expansion. However, he told the environment committee that the proposed sixth terminal and third runway were the extent of the company’s current plans.

Current growth trends suggest that the third runway will be full long before 2030 and Heathrow will once again face losing market share to airports on the Continent. Schiphol, near Amsterdam, has five runways and Paris Charles de Gaulle has four.

John Stewart, founder and chairman of the Heathrow Association for the Control of Aircraft Noise (Hacan), said: ‘After making so many false promises in the past, BAA has decided to be honest about the fact that it is keeping its options open for further expansion. We fear that they will first lengthen the third runway and then build a fourth.’

The London Assembly committee is expected to send its recommendations on the current proposals to the government on February 26, ahead of the deadline for comments on the plans the next day.

http://www.uk-airport-news.info/heathrow-airport-news-230108.htm

 

.

.

.

 

.
.
.