General News
Below are links to stories of general interest in relation to aviation and airports.
19% fall in the number of employees of airlines over past decade, as passengers increased 21%
CAA data show that in 2001, airlines in the UK employed 78,309 staff - with 19.8% part time. By 2006, they employed 72,797 staff - with 21.6% part time. And in 2011 they employed 62,794 staff - with 29.6% part time (under 30 hours per week). So the number of staff has fallen by 19% over the decade from 2001 to 2011, and in that time, the number of full time staff has fallen by 30%. In the decade from 2001 to 2011, the number of passengers using UK airports rose 21% (it was higher from 2005 -8 than now). This shows how much the airlines have increased productivity per worker, and how jobs are not rising in line with passengers. An increasing proportion are also part time.
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El Al flight makes emergency landing in U.K. after mid-air engine fire
An El Al Boeing 747-400 flight with a fire in one of its 4 engines had to make an emergency landing at Heathrow yesterday. The fire developed shortly after taking off from London for Tel Aviv, and had 411 people on board. The plane landed without incident, though flames could be seen coming from one engine. If the wind was westerly, (it probably was at the time) the plane would have limped back to Heathrow on a flight path over London. Strange that apparently this story has been reported all over the world, but not in the London media.
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Rich and famous etc get to Olympics by private jet, then by helicopter to Battersea Heliport
As the Olympic and Paralympic games get under way later this month, armies of wealthy, powerful or famous people will be flocking to London, only to find they will have to rub shoulders with the great masses.So Battersea heliport is going to be making money out of the desire of the posh to travel in helicopters. Not only will the famous, the heads of state, and the rich be arriving by private jets at small airports near London, such as Farnborough, Oxford, or Biggin Hill, they are then to be rushed from there by helicopter to heliport. The helicopters on offer are luxurious affairs, some with fewer seats than some large cars, others much larger. Making matters more complex for the helicopters, however, is the way much of the airspace will be closed for non-essential travel while the games are on. There will still be a lot of extra helicopter noise, to be suffered by the many, during the Olympics, for the privileged travel of the few.
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Boeing predicts robust growth in future sales of its planes in latest 20-year forecast
ABoeing's latest forecast of its plane sales over the next 20 years have risen slightly from its last forecast. It now expects to sell a total of 34,000 planes in two decades, up from 33.500. It expects this will make it $4.5 trillion. Boeing anticipates demand from China, India and the emerging markets to be stronger than from Europe and America. It anticipates annual air passenger growth over 20 years of 5% and annual air freight growth of 5.2%. Boeing expects orders of 23,240 single-aisle planes, as low-cost carriers continue to grow at above average rates - and 7,950 twin-aisle planes, 790 large aircraft and 2,020 regional jets from 2012 to 2031. It expects the world freight fleet to nearly double from 1,740 aircraft currently to 3,200 in 20 years' time. It expects the number of aircraft in the world to double in 20 years.
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IATA – global air passenger demand up 4.5% in May 2012 compared to May 2011
IATA says that globally the number of air passenger kilometres rose by 4.5% in May, compared to May 2011. They regard this as not high enough, because it is not much above the level this April. Globally air freight was down - 1.9% in May. IATA says "Traffic growth for European carriers basically stopped at the end of 2011." Also that "Domestic markets grew at slightly less than half the rate of international markets". IATA says the airline industry is fragile; that lower oil prices have helped them recently but that fears of deterioration in the European economy are hitting their industry. Business and consumer confidence are falling, causing slowing demand and softer load factors, which does not bode well for industry's profitability. Airlines are expected to return only a $3 billion profit in 2012 on $631 billion in revenues (=0.48%).
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FT says Tories now back Heathrow 3rd runway, if they can get outright majority at next election
The Financial Times says that David Cameron has now quietly swung his support behind a 3rd Heathrow runway, but this is deeply opposed by the Lib Dems. Therefore, though the coalition is committed to no 3rd runway in this term of parliament, the Conservaties would now try and get it passed, if they won the next election (? May 2015) by an outright majority, without the Lib Dems. There will be the two aviation consultations this summer (July probably) on aviation policy and hub capacity, but the FT says - after discussion with a senior government figure - that "the official response to this – a final policy paper on hub airport capacity which was earmarked for March 2013 – is now set to be delayed for several years, effectively postponing any firm decision until after the general election. The next three years will therefore feature efforts by the coalition to prove it can improve Britain’s hub airport capacity, while making no big-ticket decisions.".
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New Aviation Environment Federation report challenges myth of airport capacity crisis
The aviation industry has been working hard to put out the message that there is a crisis in airport capacity in the South East. In fact the Government’s forecasts of air traffic demand indicate that even if no constraints on airport growth were imposed for environmental reasons, passenger demand could be entirely met with existing infrastructure until nearly 2030. Even if no new runways were built anywhere in the UK before 2030, only about 3% of air traffic would be squeezed out. The report finds that passenger demand is being overestimated. Now every time the Government has revised its forecasts, the numbers have been downgraded. In the latest set of figures, which reflect to some extent the impact of recession, demand is down from 500 million passengers per year (mppa) at 2030 in the 2007 forecasts to 343 mppa in the 2011 forecast.
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Report on the Evening Standard’s Great Heathrow Debate
The debate hosted by the Evening Standard took place last night in London had an unbalanced panel, with four speakers broadly in favour of expansion, and only one against. The speakers were Alain de Botton, Willy Walsh, CBI chief policy director Katja Hall, the Mayor’s adviser Daniel Moylan with the lone “anti-expansion” voice of the panel, Tamsin Omond leading member of Climate Rush, among other things. The debate was a missed opportunity for a high level debate, not having sufficient speakers from the opposition, but it was of a higher quality than expected. Willie Walsh confirmed that he is not expecting a third runway at Heathrow, and is not planning for it. He also agreed that the presence of a new runway would not determine whether business is attracted to London. No convincing arguments on the economics of a hub airport, or of a new runway, were put forward.
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International tourism receipts surpass US$ 1 trillion in 2011
In 2011, international tourism receipts exceeded US$ 1 trillion for the first time, up from US$ 928 billion in 2010. In real terms, receipts grew by 3.8%, following a 4.6% increase in international tourist arrivals. The UN World Tourism Organisation UNWTO thinks this is a very good thing. “The past two years have shown healthy demand for international tourism out of many markets, even though economic recovery has been uneven. This is particularly important news for countries facing fiscal pressure and weak domestic consumption, where international tourism, a key export and a labour intensive activity, is increasingly strategic to balancing external deficits and stimulating employment.” International tourist arrivals grew by over 4% in 2011 to 980 million, according to the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, and are expected to grow to one billion this year.
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Excellent article by Simon Jenkins, in the Standard, on Heathrow etc. “It’s all about greed”.
Jenkins has seen straight through the aviation industry spin and PR, and is not remotely taken in by it. In a brilliantly written piece, this are some quotes: "BAA and BA have been wrapping themselves in the flag of “growth” and “UK plc” for years, as if Heathrow had anything to do with some wider public interest. It does not. British aviation is chiefly about shifting millions of leisure travellers, mostly British tourists going overseas" And ". A mere 13% of British airport passengers are in any sense “business”, and that embraces company junkets, conferences and trips on expenses. The industry may present Heathrow as the throbbing hub, the nerve centre, of the nation’s economy but only 30% of its passengers are in any sense “business”, which is why it is designed like a supermarket. Gatwick and Stansted are barely 15% business travellers. This whole enterprise is dedicated to inducing Britons to holiday abroad."