Climate Change News
Below are news items on climate change – many with relevance to aviation
Climate groups taking government to High Court over greenwash “Jet Zero” aviation strategy
In July 2022, the UK government published a "Jet Zero" strategy (the best part of which is the catchy name). It aspires to allow the UK airline sector to continue to grow, with unrealistic hopes of being able to decarbonise with novel fuels. It was widely condemned at the time as being greenwashing, with no credible ways to achieve its goals, and its steadfast refusal to contemplate measures to reduce the demand for flights. Two organisations, GALBA and Possible, challenged the government. In October 2022, with lawyers at Leigh Day, Possible filed for a judicial review of the “Jet Zero” strategy. They now have permission to proceed to a joint hearing. This is a hugely important milestone in climate change litigation in the UK. Experts have judged the plans in Jet Zero to be inadequate, and lawyers will argue that the failure to consider this risk to the delivery of its plans renders its net zero aviation strategy unlawful. The key grounds on which the challenge will be heard in the High Court are: The government failed to lay a report before Parliament setting out how the strategy would enable carbon budgets to be met. And the government failed to consult in a lawful manner by having a “closed mind” before the consultation commenced on whether demand management measures were required.
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Scottish LibDems say support for Heathrow 3rd runway must be withdrawn by next First Minister
The LibDems in Scotland say the next first minister has been urged to finally end Scottish Government support for the expansion of Heathrow, if they’re serious about the climate emergency. They say the SNP’s support of third runway at Heathrow was “simply not compatible” with emissions-cutting targets. Party leader Alex Cole-Hamilton said the climate had been “shamefully neglected” during the leadership contest by Humza Yousaf, Kate Forbes and Ash Regan. And he told whoever succeeds Nicola Sturgeon to “rip up” a deal between Heathrow Airport and Scottish ministers. A Scottish Government memorandum of understanding with Heathrow backing the proposed expansion includes a pledge of up to 16,000 new jobs in Scotland and 75,000 additional flights between Scottish airports and London. The Scottish LibDems said this would generate nearly 600,000 tons of extra emissions by 2040 and hammer the country’s net zero ambitions. A report by the Climate Change Committee said Scotland was falling behind the rest of the UK in decarbonising transport and had been “unwilling to consider measures” like restricting aviation growth.
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Getting real: what would serious climate action look like? Not expanding aviation?
The world's governments want, in theory, to try to keep the average global temperature rise to not be more than 1.5C to 2C above pre-industrial. But so far, despite worthy intentions, instead of falling, global CO2 emissions continue to rise. Professor Kevin Anderson is an outspoken climate scientist, who prefers the reality of the climate science to the politically palatable version of it, that can be agreed by the IPCC. Climate science suggests that to have a 50:50 chance of not exceeding 1.5°C, humanity can emit about 400 billion tonnes of CO2. For a good chance of staying below 2°C, this value doubles to around 800 billion tonnes. 400bn tonnes is under 10 years of current emissions, and humanity is currently using up the carbon budget at a rate of almost 1% each month. We have had 30 years of failures, tweaks to business-as-usual, carbon markets, and the dodgy prospect of future technologies. We need rapid, huge cuts in CO2 emissions, Kevin says for example "an immediate moratorium on airport expansion and a plan to deliver a fair 80% cut in all air travel by 2030." Also, no more new internal combustion engine cars would be built from 2025. And many other ideas.
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Dutch to introduce limits on the carbon emissions of international flights from its airports
The Dutch cabinet has announced that flights from Dutch airports will have their CO2 emissions capped from 2025 depending on the airport. It has not yet specified the different thresholds for each. This follows the “Aviation Memorandum 2020-2050”, a 2020 memorandum which laid down the blueprint for measures to achieve increased "sustainability" in the Dutch aviation sector. The Minister responsible for aviation said there is not yet any "global, European or national instrument that legally anchors aviation CO2 emissions in absolute terms. The CO2 cap provides this anchorage ... and secures the climate goals for aviation by setting clear and enforceable limits on permitted CO2 emissions, thus creating a guarantee for meeting the climate targets ... The targets are currently unenforceable; without introducing a legal cap, there is a risk that CO2 emissions from aviation will in practice turn out higher than agreed, as a result of which the goals of the Aviation Memorandum will not be met.” The cap is planned to be implemented in 2025.
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IEA, oil demand and aviation growth – sector not on track on lowering CO2 emissions
The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that global oil demand is rising slowly, since the end of Covid restrictions, but is set for a huge boost from resumed air travel and China's economic reopening after its Covid measures. It said "Rebounding jet fuel use and a resurgent China will see an overall 1Q-4Q ramp-up of 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd), the largest relative in-year increase since 2010." It said that Chinese air travel has increased, with its domestic flights now well above pre-pandemic levels. IEA said "New aircraft are up to 20% more efficient than the models they replace, but this has been insufficient to keep up with growing activity. Between 2000 and 2010 fuel efficiency improved by 2.4% per annum, and by 1.9% from 2010 to 2019, demonstrating that additional incremental improvements are becoming more difficult. Meanwhile passenger demand grew at over 5% per year from 2000 to 2019, meaning that annual improvements are far below what is needed to align with the Net Zero Scenarios."
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Tourists and air passengers like the idea of being “green” but won’t pay for it
Tourists around the world and especially in Europe are - in theory - supportive of more eco-friendly leisure trips, but reluctant to carry the extra cost, according to studies and industry executives. In Germany, for example, 24% of travelers believe ecological sustainability is an important criterion when booking a holiday, according to a survey by motor vehicle association ADAC released this month. But only 5-10% would be willing to pay even a moderate sustainability surcharge, according to the poll of 5,000 people. People are not prepared to pay a bit more, for slight reductions in the environmental impact of their trip. No age group is willing to pay more. Few airline passengers buy carbon offsets, and these are anyway almost entirely ineffective in preventing more CO2 entering the atmosphere, in the short or longer term. Airlines will hope they can use new "sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)" to claim - often misleadingly - that flights emit less carbon. Perhaps they will offer more expensive fares if planes use a bit of SAF. That is likely to become largely greenwashing, in the same way as carbon offsets.
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Imperial College briefing paper on low-carbon fuels for aviation
A paper has been published by Imperial College, on low-carbon fuels for aviation. The authors looked carefully at the various fuels that the sector is hoping to use in future, to enable it to continue with its expansion plans, flying ever more people each year. The Imperial scientists concluded that hydrogen is impractical and will not contribute significantly as jet fuel in the foreseeable future. They looked at fuels made from various wastes, and their real lifecycle costs, including manufacture and emissions when burned in a jet engine ("well to wake"),and concluded that the scope for production of such fuels, that genuinely offer a CO2 advantage, on a large enough scale, is unlikely. For fuels made from plant material, it is important to look at the timescale of carbon absorption by plants, and its emissions when burned. Ignoring the time lag makes these fuels look unrealistically positive. Looking at "power to liquid" fuels, ie. those made using surplus renewably-generated electricity, they conclude that there will not be enough of this electricity available to make jet fuels in sufficient quantity. They appreciate that it is important that novel fuels to not have other negative environmental impacts. All the novel fuels come with serious problems of scalability and dubious carbon savings.
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Royal Society report on novel aviation fuels – no option other than cutting demand for flying
The UK government has been promoting the idea of "guilt-free flying" in a few years time. Now a report from the Royal Society says (as has been well known by anyone who properly investigated the issue!) that there is currently no single, clear alternative to traditional fuel. Switching to so-called "sustainable" fuel is key to the government's aim to reach "jet zero" flying by 2050. Realistically, there will be no significant impact on reducing aviation CO2 from electric planes, or hydrogen. Small economies and efficiencies by airlines can only make a small dent, while demand for flights is expected to increase. The Royal Society looked at options for "greener" fuels to replace the 12.3m tonnes of jet fuel used annually in the UK. They conclude that to produce biofuels for UK aviation would require half of Britain's farming land, putting severe pressure on food supplies and nature. There is not enough genuinely low carbon electricity to produce much "green" hydrogen. The Royal Society says research and development is required to understand and mitigate the non-CO2 climate impacts of all the alternative fuel options. But it stops short of the obvious solution to reducing aviation carbon emissions - reducing the demand for air travel, and not allowing it to grow.
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Aviation sector pushes EU for green investment status, even for fossil fuelled planes
The aviation industry is pushing to have new aircraft powered by jet fuel classified as a green investment under EU rules for sustainable finance, in what climate campaigners have described as a “huge act of greenwashing”. Environmental groups say the criteria for the sector being considered by the European Commission risk allowing conventionally powered planes to be considered as “best in class” sustainable investments despite their CO2 emissions. Transport & Environment (T&E) say over 90% of the order book of Airbus could be considered green under criteria drafted by the EU’s advisory body on sustainable finance. The aviation industry argues investments in new planes should be considered sustainable even if they burn jet fuel because they produce fewer emissions per passenger than older models. The newest designs are up to 20% per passenger kilometer. But they still emit a lot of carbon. The industry wants aircraft to be classed as green, in order to get financial help to develop "green technologies" and that they need this money, in order to develop lower carbon air travel. Even if that cannot logically be justified.
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Extinction Rebellion blockades Luton Airport private jet terminals in Valentine’s Day protest
Extinction Rebellion and affiliated groups blockaded the entrances to Luton Airport’s Harrods Aviation and Signature private jet terminals. The protest is part of the “Make Them Pay” campaign, by Scientist Rebellion, Extinction Rebellion (XR), and Stay Grounded, which has 3 demands: ban private jets, tax frequent flyers and make polluters pay - due to their high carbon emissions. The protest was a component of a global co-ordinated action launched last week by climate activists across 11 countries, which is targeting multiple sites in Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and the US. About 30,000 private jets land or take off from Luton airport each year, with celebrities, actors and the very rich using them. It is only a tiny % of the population that uses private jets, which are a very, very high carbon way to travel. A passenger in a private jet might cause the emission of x10 as much CO2 as a passenger in a commercial plane, for the same distance. Though passengers private jets pay a bit more Air Passenger Duty than on commercial planes, the rate of tax on private jets is, relatively far too low.