Climate Change News
Below are news items on climate change – many with relevance to aviation
Anti-insect paint and electric planes: technology fixes for aviation CO2 cannot match sector’s growth
The aviation industry has a real problem with the inevitable increase in its carbon emissions in future, if it grows at the rate intended. The sector has no global cap for the future, and no pathway by which to cut its emissions (other than buying carbon permits from other sectors, which actually reduce carbon). So there are a lot of bright ideas of ways to make minimal, inconsequential carbon savings - nowhere near the scale required if the industry grows at 4% or so annually - for years ahead. Winglets have been effective in making around 4% carbon savings. Some of the proposals include hi-tech coatings on planes that dead insects slide off, reducing drag; repairing sections of chipped paint; reducing weight in the plane by lighter seats etc; a new tailfin design that could cut fuel usage by 0.5%; and so on. Once a plane has its winglets, it will not continue to get 4% more efficient per year. The airspace management industry is attempting to make small CO2 savings by slightly more efficient routing of planes, (some of these changes are causing new aircraft noise problems) and using continuous descent approach. These incremental improvements pale in comparison to the industry’s growth. There are no technological solutions to allow for ever-expanding global aviation, and keep to global CO2 goals.
Click here to view full story...
New academic paper shows how “Technology myths” are unduly influencing aviation climate policy
A new research study by a group of academics from a range of countries has looked at claims made by the aviation industry that it will achieve substantial carbon savings in future. They conclude that many of these claims could be described as "myths" as they have often just been used to give favourable publicity to the industry, before rapidly being proven to be over-hyped. Some of these technologies are alternative fuels, such as animal fats or jatropha; also solar power planes; or new forms of aircraft. None of these hoped-for technologies have any likelihood of making more than small contributions to future fuel efficiency. At best, they will be small improvements per plane - set against far larger growth of the industry - resulting in a large overall increase in carbon emissions. The authors make the point that the hype and the positive media coverage that the "myth" technologies permit are damaging. The unrealistic hopes for low carbon flying in future convinces politicians (who maybe happy to be so persuaded) to give the industry the benefit of the doubt, and permit its continuing growth - ever hoping for a marvellous new technology, just around the corner, which will lead to "sustainable" flying. The unjustifiably optimistic PR of the industry has implications for decisions such as that of a new runway in the south east.
Click here to view full story...
Witness statement by Prof Alice Bows-Larkin for Heathrow 13 trial clearly shows CO2 problem of a new runway
Alice Bows-Larkin, a Professor in Climate Science and Energy Policy at MACE at Manchester University, gave written evidence at the trial of the Heathrow 13, for their action at Heathrow in July 2015. Her witness statement (11 pages + references) is a closely argued and highly expert assessment of the need for the emissions from aviation to be restricted. It is well worth reading. Just a few of the points she raises are that the UK has signed up to the ambition of the Paris Agreement to keep global temperature rise to below 2 degrees C. This is not consistent with an increase in the CO2 emissions from UK aviation above their capped level. There is no justification for international aviation to be excluded for global ambitions to limit CO2. Even if there is some carbon trading scheme, aviation needs to be fully included. If ‘negative emission sources’ that can remove CO2 from the air (unlikely) "do not materialise in time, ‘well below 2°C’ will only be achieved by a wholesale shift away from fossil fuel combustion. This would mean that CO2 produced by the aviation sector would also need to be reduced to near zero. This ... would be largely uncontested." Prof Larkin says in ther view the Government's intention to build a new runway, raising UK aviation CO2 emissions, "implies a misunderstanding by UK Government of the scale of CO2 mitigation that a 2°C goal relies upon – let alone a ‘well below’ 2°C target."
Click here to view full story...
Willie Walsh making the right noises on IAG’s small future fuel efficiency improvements per passenger
British Airways and IAG have not been at the forefront of trying to achieve progress on limiting their airline CO2 emissions. BA is still a long way behind even some other airlines in its fuel efficiency, per passenger-kilometre. A 2014 fuel efficiency ranking of the top 20 transatlantic airlines released by the ICCT put British Airways in last place. The report calculated that its fleet using an average of 51% more fuel for each kilometre travelled than top ranked Norwegian Airlines, while Spanish carrier Iberia - also owned by IAG - used 30% more. BA was also not among the signatories of an open letter, published in November and signed by 28 airline bosses, calling for a market-based solution for tackling aviation emissions. Now Willie Walsh says he has a target for IAG of an 8% cut in per-passenger CO2 by 2020 compared to 2015. This is per passenger emissions, while the total number of passengers grows. ie. a net increase in emissions. Tim Johnson, from the AEF, commented: "Any deal must be environmentally effective, and ambitious enough to reduce aviation emissions in line with the Paris Agreement's goal to limit temperature rises to 1.5C." ICAO predicts the CO2 emissions from global aviation could rise by 68% from their 2010 level by 2020.
Click here to view full story...
ICAO proposal to slightly reduce CO2 emissions from new planes, only after 2023, not seen as sufficiently ambitious
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the United Nations’ aviation agency, has approved the first-ever binding agreement to achieve CO2 emissions reductions from new aircraft. New efficiency standards will apply to all new commercial jets delivered after 2028, as well as existing jets produced from 2023. This might achieve a cut in CO2 of about 4% in cruise fuel consumption, compared to the level in 2015. This is a very low level of ambition. Environmental groups, specifically the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) said the proposed standards were a missed opportunity and would have little real effect in curbing emissions. The standard excludes aircraft that are already in use, and as most airlines have lifetimes of 20-30 years, it will take decades to cover the current fleet. ICCT says some of the top performing commercial aircraft were already achieving the standard – with room to spare. By 2020, 8 years before the proposed standards were even due to come into effect, the average aircraft would already be 10% more efficient than the ICAO standard. ICAO recognised that "the projected doubling of global passengers and flights by 2030 must be managed responsibly and sustainably.” However, this does very little to achieve that. The exclusion high CO2 emitting international aviation and shipping was a major weakness of the Paris Agreement in December.
Click here to view full story...
NASA JPL scientist explains why he gave up flying: “I don’t like harming others, so I don’t fly.”
Academics fly a lot, and there is the presumption that this is essential for their work and for international university connections etc. A climate scientist, Dr Peter Kalmus (who works for the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory) has decided that his own lifestyle is not consistent with his understanding of rising anthropogenic carbon emissions. "I try to avoid burning fossil fuels, because it’s clear that doing so causes real harm to humans and to non-humans, today and far into the future. I don’t like harming others, so I don’t fly." He says: "I experienced a lot of social pressure to fly, so it took me three years to quit. Not flying for vacations was relatively easy." Long trips by road to visit family were a bit harder. He comments that he knows scientists who fly a lot, but “just don’t think about it” and "most people simply don’t know the huge impact of their flying—but I also suspect that many of us are addicted to it. We’ve come to see flying as an inalienable right, a benefit of 21st-century living that we take for granted." "In today’s world, we’re still socially rewarded for burning fossil fuels. We equate frequent flying with success; we rack up our “miles.” This is backward: Burning fossil fuels does real harm to the biosphere, to our children, and to countless generations—and it should, therefore, be regarded as socially unacceptable."
Click here to view full story...
Aviation emissions must be accounted for in carbon budgets, AEF says in evidence to CCC
The Committee on Climate Change put out a call for evidence last year, on its 5th Carbon Budget, which will cover the period 2028-32. The Government must legislate the level of the 5th Carbon Budget by June 2016. The CCC has recommended that the CO2 emissions from international aviation must be accounted for in the setting of the 5th carbon budget to provide the appropriate framework for future climate change policy. But the CO2 emissions from international shipping are fully included. AEF, the Aviation Environment Federation, say it is particularly important to have aviation CO2 properly included now as the Government has indicated its theoretical support for a new runway in the South East, which could significantly increase the scale of the UK aviation emissions challenge. It is disappointing that the CCC did not recommend formal inclusion of aviation in the carbon budget, which would provide greater certainty in relation to the sector’s future development. AEF believes that the CCC's recommended approach of setting the budget with a view to aviation’s formal inclusion in future budgets provides a ‘next best’ alternative. The CCC has long recommended that in order to allow for aviation’s future inclusion in carbon budgets, Government should plan on the assumption that emissions from the sector in 2050 should not exceed their level in 2005 – 37.5 MtCO2 – allowing for a 60% growth in aviation passengers between 2005 and 2050.
Click here to view full story...
Faster jet stream, due to climate change, could make transatlantic flights slower (and costlier)
Carbon emissions from global aviation are known to worsen climate change - but now climate change is set to worsen flight times, according to new research. Climate change is likely to cause a faster jet stream, and that will add thousands of hours to journey times and increase airline fuel bills. Dr Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading, combined climate models with the software used by aviation companies to calculate the best routes each day. This showed the impact of a 15% faster jet stream, with flights from Europe toward the USA taking somewhat longer, against the wind. The wind could help speed the flights going eastwards, but the overall impact is a longer round trip. There are currently about 300 round trips per day, across the Atlantic, meaning the delay adds up to about 2,000 extra flying hours per year, $22m in extra fuel and 70m extra kilogrammes of CO2 emitted. Earlier work showed other impacts of rising temperatures on aviation, including bumpier, more turbulent flights and reducing the weight planes can carry. The impact of the faster jet stream will mean worse environmental impacts from aviation, as well as raising ticket prices. The jet stream also occurs in other part of the northern hemisphere, and in the southern hemisphere, and would have the same effect on planes there.
Click here to view full story...
ICAO trying to negotiate standards for fuel efficiency requirements for new and future planes
Talks are going on - till 12th February - in Montreal at ICAO, on global fuel efficiency standards for aircraft. The proposals would mean makers of the world's largest passenger jets would be forced to upgrade models currently in production, or stop producing certain models as early as 2023 (or maybe 2028). Planes currently flying are not included. Big improvements in aircraft CO2 emissions are needed, as the sector was left out of the Paris agreement. The sector intends to continue growing fast - with emissions rising much faster than any feasible fuel efficiencies. As well as the fuel efficiency of planes, ICAO is meant to be (after 6 years) finalising a "market-based mechanism" for all airlines later this year - as a two-part strategy. There are differences between countries on how tight the fuel efficiency standard should be, on a scale of 1 - 10 (10 being the best). The US and Canada are pushing for more stringent targets than the EU. Environmental groups say the EU is dragging its feet. Airbus may have to change the engines on the A380, and the Boeing 747-8 may no longer be produced. Aircraft makers are not keen on having to make costly improvements to planes now in production. The tougher standard for new designs could go into effect by 2020.
Click here to view full story...
First EU-wide report on aviation’s environmental impacts shows growing challenges
A new report by European environment and aviation agencies – the European Aviation Environmental Report – has been published, by the European Environment Agency, and EASA. The aim of the initiative is to "monitor, promote and strengthen the EU’s efforts for a more sustainable European aviation sector." The report looks at a range of issues for European aviation, including its noise impact, its carbon emissions, and local air quality. It is aware that "the historic rate of improvement in various areas (e.g. technology and design) has not kept pace with past growth in the demand for air travel leading to increased overall pressures (e.g. emissions, noise) on the environment, and this trend is forecast to continue." The report is aware that future growth of the sector, out to 2035, will require environmental improvements. On noise, the report says around 5 million people in Europe were exposed to aircraft noise levels above 55 dBA Lden in 2012. While average jet aircraft noise decreased by around 4 dB per decade since 1960, the improvement has recently slowed to 2 dB per decade. On carbon emissions, the report says CO2 emissions from aviation have increased by around 77% between 1990 and 2005 and a further 5% from 2005 to 2014. They are likely to rise by a further 45% up to 2035. They note that biofuel development has been slow, and that a market based mechanism for global aviation carbon emissions is needed.