Climate Change News
Below are news items on climate change – many with relevance to aviation
Aviation Week blog says forecast aviation demand is unsustainable and must be dampened
A blog in Aviation Week, by Antoine Gelain who works for an investment company, provides some cutting insights into demand for air travel. He says: "When it comes to sustainability of air travel, the aviation community is lying to itself. There is an elephant in the room and nobody wants to see it. Without more significant efforts—some would call them sacrifices—air travel will continue to be a huge contributor to this planet’s pollution and global warming, with dire consequences for future generations" ... and ... "The bottom line is that with all the talk about the aviation community being committed to action on climate change ... and about how various supply-driven measures will improve air travel’s sustainability, everybody knows that serious progress will not be achieved unless we address the other part of the equation, aviation’s “sacred cow”—demand." ... and ... "Air travel has essentially doubled in the past 15 years (and so have related CO2 emissions) and is expected to double again over the next 15 years. There is just no way supply-based measures such as technology and infrastructure improvements will come close to offsetting such rapid growth and its impact on the environment." ... and ... If we in the aviation community are really serious about addressing climate change, we first need to accept that the current and forecasted demand for air travel is unsustainable and therefore must be dampened." ... and more ....
Click here to view full story...
New runway would push up air fares due to carbon emissions, and restrict regional airports – new report
A new report for the Campaign for Better Transport (CBT) has analysed the Airports Commission’s backing for new runway in relation to carbon emissions, and says the necessary carbon pricing would end low-cost flights by 2050. The Commission was aware that UK aviation is expected to far exceed the cap set for the sector's CO2 emissions (37.5MtCO2) before 2050. Adding another runway only makes the situation far worse, by exacerbating the problem. The only way to keep aviation emissions down, with a new runway, is greatly increased cost of flights, trying to reduce the demand that has been increased by adding capacity. This means a carbon price massively higher than today - at several hundred £s. The report, by Leo Barasi and Leo Murray, say that as well as making flights expensive (perhaps pricing out those on low pay) the addition of a new SE runway means growth at regional airports would have to be restricted to allow expanded London capacity. Dame Julia King, who was on the Airports Commission and is on the Committee on Climate Change, admits that regional airports would need to be restricted in order to allow growth in the south east. There has been far too little assessment and acknowledgement of the CO2 implications of a runway. The government should not rush into approving a runway until this has been fully accepted.
Click here to view full story...
ICAO agreement to get global aviation industry to limit CO2 may just be “voluntary” for years
ICAO is meeting in Montreal from 27th September to 7th October, with the intention of agreeing some mechanism globally to limit, or trade, aviation carbon emissions in future. However, aviation was not included in the Paris agreement, and ICAO has made little progress in getting airlines internationally to agree measures that would be effective. Aviation should contribute to the global ambition of limiting temperature rise to 2 degrees C (or 1.5 degrees C ideally) above pre-industrial levels. Now it appears that there may not even be a mandatory system, but just a voluntary one for the first 5 years for certain countries. This apparently is not yet meant to be public knowledge. Environmental groups said a voluntary first phase waters down a deal that already exempts too many countries, including most developing states, during its first five years. It will not achieve the ambition of making aviation making a fair contribution on the needed emissions reductions, especially if the largest carbon emitters do not join it. Airlines from countries that voluntarily participate would have to limit their emissions or offset them by buying carbon credits from designated environmental projects around the world.
Click here to view full story...
Committee on Climate Change report stresses the problems climate change will cause for the UK
The Committee on Climate Change has produced an extensive report on the likely implications of climate change for the UK. They warn of multiple impacts, some of which could amplify and intensify others, leading to a domino effect. The UK is not well prepared. The 2,000 page report warns of flooding, and unsuitably built homes which are not designed for very hot summers, and damage to soils and farming, as well as water supply issues. There is much to be done to adapt to the altered climate that is inevitable, with the rapidly rising level of CO2 in the global atmosphere. The CCC warns that UK food production will be at risk, and food production elsewhere in the world will also be affected, causing shocks to the food system. The projections are based on the supposition that governments keep promises made in the Paris climate agreement, but there is no certainty that even these rather inadequate pledges will actually be met. The report comes the day before Theresa May becomes Prime Minister, which is significant timing - to remind her of her role in ensuring the UK takes its climate responsibilities seriously. As well as adapting sufficiently to climate change, the UK needs to ensure it plays it role on the global level, in cutting our country's contribution to global CO2.
Click here to view full story...
Bill Hemmings: An ICAO deal that falls well short of “carbon-neutral growth” target will have no credibility
Bill Hemmings (from T&E) explains the hurdles to ICAO agreeing an environmentally meaningful deal in October. The global aviation sector needs to play its part in the international aspiration, from the Paris Agreement, to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C, or 2 degrees at worst. However, ICAO is not looking as if this is likely, largely due to the differences between historical and current CO2 emissions, and current and future growth rates, between airlines from countries (US and Europe largely) with historic aviation sectors, and those of developing countries, with young aviation industries. Ways to apportion the CO2 fairly need to be agreed, but solutions favour one group or the other. The developing countries (including Brazil, South Africa, and Nigeria) want their aviation CO2 to be exempted from any scheme. But emissions gap would amount to around 40-50% of the total, and so directly threatens the integrity of the commitment to carbon neutral growth from 2020, to which IATA pays lip service. Then there is the problem how to determine what percentage of emissions above the 2020 baseline airlines should have to offset each year. European and US airline CO2 is barely growing, but the CO2 from some is rising by 8% per year. US airlines do not want to pay for this. The issues are complicated. Read Bill's explanation.
Click here to view full story...
UN climate chief, Christiana Figueres, urges Britain to remain a global leader on tackling climate change
Christiana Figueres, completing her second term as Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, has said the UK's Brexit vote is not an obstacle to continued cooperation between Britain and the EU on climate change. She says Britain must continue to be a world leader when it comes to acting on climate. Though when Article 50 is triggered, for the two year process of leaving the EU, will cause huge uncertainty, cooperation on climate change could be one area of continuity between the UK and EU. Climate change action is now unstoppable, and global. In the UK there are fears that many politicians backing "Leave" are climate sceptic, and this could result in climate policies and protections being weakened. However, carbon targets are enshrined in UK law under the Climate Change Act, which was passed in 2008 with just five MPs voting against it, and requires steeper emissions cuts than EU targets. The UK has not yet ratified the Paris Agreement on climate change, and neither has the EU. There are fears that Brexit could mean the UK delays ratification, unless the current government does this quickly. There are fears the Brexit climate scepticism could lead to weakening of targets and commitments by other countries. Outside the EU, the UK would have to agree its own contribution to emissions cuts if it stays in the Paris accord. These would most likely be based on the Climate Change Act.
Click here to view full story...
Amber Rudd confirms government will agree 5th Carbon Budget on 30th June
The government was under obligation to write the 5th Carbon Budget into law by 30th June. Amber Rudd has now made a statement to confirm this will be done. The budget sets the cap on UK emissions for the period 2028-2032, and requires cuts in the UK’s CO2 emissions of 57% against 1990 levels by 2032. The carbon budgets are important for aviation, even though international aviation and shipping are not included in them. The CCC advises that “International aviation should continue to be allowed for in the size of the budget for other sectors, but not formally included." The CCC has long recommended that in order to allow for aviation’s future inclusion in carbon budgets, Government should plan on the assumption that aviation CO2 emissions in 2050 should not exceed their level in 2005 – 37.5 MtCO2. With the Brexit vote, there were fears that a more climate-sceptic government might try to weaken the budgets. Amber Rudd has now said that though "Brexit would result in a "harder road" for the UK as it worked to meet its climate goals, the government remained firmly committed to the emission reduction targets set out in the Climate Change Act." Amber said, in relation to climate-sceptic Boris, that the stance of a candidate for Prime Minister on climate would be important in her decision of who to back.
Click here to view full story...
New petition demanding real action to address global aviation CO2 – not ineffective use of “REDD” offsets
The group REDD-Monitor and other organisations have a petition asking people to sign up, to oppose the use by the global aviation industry, through ICAO, of "offsets" for its emissions using forestry. These offsets, through REDD or REDD+ (meaning (‘Reduce Deforestation from Deforestation and Forest Degradation’) would be very cheap and available in huge numbers. They would not be an effective way to compensate for growing aviation carbon emissions. The industry's only plan to control its CO2 emissions, while doubling them, is buying credits from other sectors. In April 2016, more than 80 NGOs put out a statement opposing the aviation sector’s carbon offsetting plans through use of REDD credits. There are many really serious problems with REDD credits. Some are: They would only use large forestry institutions, or monoculture farming, not small landowners or forest peoples. Most REDD projects are not those that tackle the real drivers of large-scale deforestation – extraction of oil, coal, mining, infrastructure, large-scale dams, industrial logging etc. REDD credits carry the additional risk of becoming null and void when wildfires, storms or natural decay cause uncontrollable release of carbon stored. There are serious risks of lack of monitoring, and of fraud. REDD offsets should not be allowed for aviation carbon credits.
Click here to view full story...
ICAO still very far from any effective means of limiting aviation CO2 to be in line with Paris Agreement
Operating without fuel taxes, VAT, legally-binding fuel efficiency requirements or limits on its CO2 emissions, the aviation sector operates in something of a parallel universe. ICAO will have an opportunity to finally take a step forward on climate action. ICAO will discuss the impact of the Paris Agreement on the sector, and specifically the next steps for an aviation carbon offsetting scheme currently under negotiation. Their earlier response to the Paris Agreement was to try to give the impression that the sector is making huge progress. In reality, industry lobbyists succeeded in preventing an explicit reference to aviation in the text. But the globally-agreed goal of striving to limit global warming to 1.5C does apply to aviation. All ICAO Parties are also Parties to the Paris Agreement. If they let aviation off the hook, the target 1.5 degree, or even 2 degree, global target will simply be impossible to reach. The aviation sector will have to act – rapidly and radically – on climate if the Paris goal can be achieved. But ICAO's current proposals are a very inadequate first step, and the industry plans for up to 300% growth by 2050. Even their modest goal of buying carbon permits to offset aviation carbon is not ambitious enough, as proposed exemptions for airlines of less developed countries amount to about 40% of global aviation CO2.
Click here to view full story...
ICAO aviation offset market talks yield little progress, but backtracking on previous agreement
ICAO has concluded 3 days of talks to try to achieve a deal on a market-based offsetting mechanism for international aviation emissions from 2020. It has not made much progress. The industry has expressed the hope of "carbon neutral growth" after 2020, which means continuing to grow and emit more carbon, but buying offsets from other sectors that actually do cut CO2 emissions. Unless this is done, the prospect of the world achieving a limit of global temperature of 2 degrees C is remote. However, there are difficult issues to be resolved, of how to divide up the offsetting responsibilities between fast-growing airlines in emerging economies, and established carriers often with older, less fuel-efficient fleets and based in the industrialised world. Neither side will accept being disadvantaged. There have been proposals to try out a "pilot" scheme, and delay the 2020 date. Either way, the ICAO scheme only intends to cover international flights, not domestic - which form a large proportion in countries like the USA and China. That means only about 62% of the total aviation CO2, assuming the EU counts as a single bloc (more like 40% otherwise). Airlines do not want a patchwork of different systems in different parts of the world.