Climate Change News
Below are news items on climate change – many with relevance to aviation
ICAO rejects request by 5 MEPs to attend meeting on CO2 emissions from aviation
The UN's agency for aviation, the ICAO, has a Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP), that looks at the problem of carbon emissions from aviation globally. There will be a meeting of CAEP in Montreal, from 8 to 12 February. Its aim is to talk about how offsetting CO2 emissions would work globally, how fuel burn will be measured, and who will be reported to. It is a technical meeting to discuss moves to create a market-based mechanism to make airlines pay for their CO2 output. The CAEP will also look at greening planes, with a new fuel efficiency standard. Now five MEPs (four from the Parliament’s Environment Committee and one from the Transport Committee) have requested, through the EC President, Jean-Claude Juncker, that they attend the meeting of CAEP, due to their interest in the CO2 emissions issue. However, their request has been rejected, though some MEPs will have a meeting in May. The CAEP drafts environmental rules and has 22 states and 15 observers, made up of other states, industry and one NGO. The way the UN process works is that the CAEP agrees a standard, which is then sent to the ICAO Council for formal approval. Nine of the 22 voting states are European. The EU also contributes about one third of ICAO's funding.
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“Heathrow13” climate protesters found guilty of aggravated trespass – sentencing 24th February, for possibly prison
Thirteen members of the Plane Stupid campaign group who occupied the eastern end of Heathrow's northern runway on 13th July 2015 have been found guilty of aggravated trespass and entering a security-restricted area of an aerodrome. They have been told it is almost inevitable they will face a prison term. Their defence had been that their actions were intended to prevent death or serous illness to people. However, district judge Deborah Wright (who sat alone) said the cost of the disruption at Heathrow was “absolutely astronomical”. Those convicted were clapped and cheered as they left the court. They have been bailed to appear for sentencing on 24 February. A statement released by the #Heathrow13 following their convictions read: “Today’s judgement demonstrates that the legal system does not yet recognise that climate defence is not an offence. We took action because we saw that it was sorely needed. When the democratic, legislative and processes have failed, it takes the actions of ordinary people to change them.” They say instead of the government taking action to cut carbon emissions, it is intending to spend millions making the problem bigger, if another runway is allowed. Though the judge recognised “They are all principled people” she considered what the protesters did was “symbolic and designed to make a point, not to save lives”.
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Europe falls behind US in new plans to tackle CO2 emissions from planes
The aviation industry is growing so fast that, on current trends, it could make up 22% of global emissions by 2050, according to a European Parliament study. However, Europe’s proposals for a landmark international fuel efficiency standard for aircraft would save considerably less carbon emissions than those put forward by the US. The US plan could cut emissions by 37.5%, and the EU proposal by 33%. The 4.5% gap is equal to 350 million tonnes of CO2, worldwide, per year - which is slightly more than Spain emits every year. The standard could mark a turning point for efforts to regulate fast-growing CO2 emissions from aircraft, which are not covered by December’s much-hailed Paris climate agreement. The standard would only apply to planes produced after 2020, meaning the planes currently being used - or ordered now - would not be included. Both the US and the EU proposals are going to ICAO, for consideration, next month. ICAO is looking at two approaches to reducing the rate of increase of aviation emissions; a market-based mechanism - MBM - (meaning trading, so airlines have to pay for their CO2); and improving the fuel efficiency of engines and aircraft. ICAO will be working on these this year, with the full council meeting in September, for a possible approval of an MBM in 2017.
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Dad of one of the #Heathrow13 sets out eloquently why we should be grateful for the climate warning they tried to give
The #Heathrow13 - the activists from "Plane Stupid" who carried out a protest on Heathrow's northern runway in July 2015 - were in court on 18th January, and the Judge's verdict was given on Monday 25th January. All were found guilty. Tim, the father of one of the activists, Rebecca Sanderson, has written about why (despite his earlier career working for an oil company) he is proud of what his daughter did, why he applauds their action, and why we should be grateful that they have tried to warn us about the climate dangers we face. Tim comments: "I am appalled by the apparently complete disconnect between what we know and what we do. .... There is now an overwhelming consensus that growth in carbon emissions could spell climatic disaster for our planet. Everyone apparently knows this ..... the general public, assiduously switch off mobile phone chargers and avoid over-filling the kettle. And then we feel so virtuous and pleased with ourselves that we book a flight to New Zealand, and wipe out all our emissions savings before we have even reached cruising altitude." .... Tim makes the analogy of the "Railway Children" in which they trespass on the railway line waving a red flag, to prevent an accident. "The Heathrow Plane Stupid protesters have tried again to warn us. They have stepped onto the runway, and they have waved their red flags. They have trespassed, and we should be grateful to them."
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First 2 days of the trial of Plane Stupid’s #Heathrow13 for their runway incursion in July
The trial of the #Heathrow13 is taking place at Willesden Magistrates Court, in front of Judge Wright. The 13 activists are charged with Aggravated Trespass and entering a security restricted area, with the prosecution by the CPS (Crown Prosecution Service). On the first day, evidence was given by two witnesses from Heathrow airport, on the extent to which the airport was disrupted by the protest, and the 20 flights that were cancelled. Two of the protesters gave evidence in the afternoon. On the second day, seven further witnesses gave evidence. The Judge has said she does not need other expert witnesses to appear - Sian Berry and John McDonnell had offered to give evidence. On the 3rd day, proceedings finished early, after lunch. It is likely that closing statements will be heard at 10am Monday 25th January, and the Judge's verdict will not be before 2pm on Monday at Willesden Magistrates court. Plane Stupid have produced summaries of what the defendants said, while being questioned, and some of the arguments they made. All were very certain of the necessity for carbon emissions to be reduced, in order to prevent increasing risk of death and serious illness for people across the world, especially those in the Global South. All were very certain that actions, such as theirs, were reasonable and proportionate in order to cut CO2 emissions.
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Supportive protest outside start of Plane Stupid’s #Heathrow13 trial for Heathrow incursion in July
The trial of the 13 members of Plane Stupid, who broke into Heathrow airport on 13th July, started at Willesden Magistrates Court on 18th. They are charged with Aggravated Trespass and entering a security restricted area. Their protest caused the cancellation of some 25 flights, which saved an estimated 250 tonnes of CO2. In doing so, they argue that helped to save lives in the Global South, by making a small cut in the emissions that fuel climate chaos. All 13 are pleading not guilty, and say their action was reasonable and justified in the climate context. They say "Climate defence is not an offence!" The judge hearing the case, by herself, is Judge Wright. The prosecution has been brought by the CPS. There was a large gathering outside the court, for the start of the trial, with many groups expressing their solidarity. This started with a short statement by the #Heathrow13 on their defence, before they entered the court to repeated chants of “No ifs, No Buts, No new runways!” Judge Wright declared that the fact that aviation fuel is linked to climate change is indisputable. The judge is looking at two issues: 1. Did the 13 genuinely believe their actions were necessary to prevent death or serious illness? And 2. Whether objectively their actions were reasonable and proportionate in order to prevent death or serious illness.
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Richard Heinberg post COP21: “we may have to write off aviation as anything but a specialty transport mode”
After COP21, Richard Heinberg has had a long, hard look at how humanity can reduce consumption of fossil fuels and achieve the carbon reductions needed before 2050. He only touches on aviation, but his message is very clear: Looking at shipping: "One way or another, global trade will have to shrink." On aviation: "There is no good drop-in substitute for aviation fuels; we may have to write off aviation as anything but a specialty transport mode. Planes running on hydrogen or biofuels are an expensive possibility, as are dirigibles filled with (non-renewable) helium, any of which could help us maintain vestiges of air travel." One recommendation: "Where key uses of fossil fuels are especially hard to substitute (aviation fuel, for example), argue for work-arounds (such as rail) or for the managed, gradual scaling down of those uses." And "It will likely require a global authority to determine how to direct the use of the world’s remaining burnable fossil fuels—whether toward the further growth of conventional manufacturing and transportation, or toward the build-out of renewable energy-based generation and consumption infrastructure. Only such an authority could globally prioritize and coordinate sectoral shifts...."
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Shipping, like aviation, slow and reluctant to agree any measures to limit global CO2 emissions
The international climate agreement in Paris still puts additional pressure on shipping to change, despite its exclusion from the text (with aviation). The Paris agreement should be signed by countries early in 2016 - it covers actions to cut carbon emissions, from 2020 onwards. Global shipping is a huge emitter of carbon, and is growing. Lloyds List says new ships being ordered now will have to meet design requirements and all ship operators need to be aware of the ship energy efficiency management plan. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) is tasked with - eventually finding some mechanism to limit carbon emissions from the sector. It has been ineffective so far. Mention of work by the IMO was dropped from draft versions of the Paris agreement. In due course, some form of emissions trading system might be introduced. The EU aready has its pending requirements for all ships to report CO2 emissions on voyages to, from or between European ports — the so-called MRV rules, meaning monitoring, reporting and verification of annual CO2 emissions. The first year of results will have been collated by 2020. European NGO, T&E wants shipping to be part of the European ETS. Lobby groups have been appalled at the slow pace of the IMO in coming up with strong measures to curb CO2.
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IATA expects global airline profits to rise by 5.1% in 2016 (and CO2 to rise by 4.6%) cf. 2015
IATA, which represents some 260 airlines and 83% of global air traffic, expects profits in the industry to rise by 5.1% to $36.3 billion in 2016 - up from $33 billion in 2015. This growth is attributed to dropping oil prices and a greater demand for travel. IATA expects about 3.78 billion air passengers in 2016, travelling over 54,000 routes. There were about 3.54 billion air passengers in 2015. It says: "Air travel is accelerating, with growth of 6.9% expected next year, the best since 2010, well above the 5.5% trend of the past 20 years." They say air passengers spend 1% of world GDP on air transport, and air transport costs have been halved over the past 20 years. They say load factors forecast to fall a little (around as capacity rises, with yet more planes being added. However, IATA is happy to say the carbon emissions per ATK (available tonne kilometres) will be 1.8% lower. However, as they expect around 7% growth, the net effect is much higher carbon emissions. The estimated increase in the use of jet fuel is about 4.2% higher this year than in 2014, and is expected to rise by 4.6% in 2016, compared to 2015. IATA says the carbon emissions from the global aviation industry were 739 million tonnes in 2014; 771 million tonnes in 2015; and 806 million tonnes in 2016. North America may generate over half of the global industry's profit in 2016 ($19.4 billion), while European airlines could increase in profits from $5.8 billion in 2015 to $8.5 billion in 2016.
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ICAO “welcomes the COP21 agreement” which excludes any measures to regulate aviation CO2
The Paris COP21 climate talks produced an agreement, but without any mention of the carbon emissions from international aviation and shipping. The weak paragraph just saying Parties might "pursue the limitation or reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, working through ICAO, with a view to agreeing concrete measures addressing these emissions...." was removed. A press release from ICAO (the International Civil Aviation Organization) says how delighted it is at the outcome of the COP21, and how now: “Every State and every global industrial sector must now redouble their efforts toward achieving substantial progress on emissions reduction if the COP21 legacy is to be achieved, and the civil aviation community is no exception.” Somehow the exclusion of aviation from the Paris agreement is interpreted by ICAO as “a vote of confidence in the progress ICAO and the aviation community have achieved thus far." That is a pretty incredible statement, bearing in mind ICAO's record of utterly dismal failure to produce any worthwhile progress over some 18 years. ICAO is meant to be working on developing a "market based measure" (MBM) for global aviation by September 2016. Expectations for how likely this is, or how effective it will be, are very low.