By 2050 global aviation emissions could surge by 700% compared to 2005

Someone flying from London to New York and back generates roughly the same level of emissions as the average person in the EU does by heating their home for a whole year, according to the European Commission (EC). The EC states that: “If global aviation was a country, it would rank in the top 10 emitters.” Looking at Ireland, it has agreed, under the EU’s Effort Sharing Decision targets, to deliver a 20% reduction in non-ETS (Emissions Trading System) greenhouse gas emissions, based on 2005 levels, by 2020; these include: agriculture; transport; residential; commercial; waste; and the non-energy intensive industry.  Earlier this year, Ireland also committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions level by 30% on 2005 levels by 2030. But according to the EC, by 2020, global international aviation emissions are projected to be around 70% higher than in 2005 and the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) forecasts that by 2050 they could grow by a further 300-700%.  Some of the carbon emissions from aviation within Europe (not planes flying to and from Europe, just internally) are covered under the EU’s ETS. This is at risk if the global ICAO deal succeeds in forcing the EU to abandon this scheme.
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By 2050 global aviation emissions could surge by 700%

By Claire Mc Cormack (Agri Land Ireland)
Nov 5, 2018

Someone flying from London to New York and back generates roughly the same level of emissions as the average person in the EU does by heating their home for a whole year, according to the European Commission.

Currently, aviation is one of the fastest-growing sources of greenhouse gas emissions. As such, the EU is taking action to reduce aviation emissions in Europe by working with the international community to develop measures with global reach.

According to official European Commission data, direct emissions from aviation account for about 3% of the EU’s total greenhouse gas emissions and more than 2% of global emissions.

The commission states that: “If global aviation was a country, it would rank in the top 10 emitters.”

Last week, on episode nine of FarmLand, independent TD Michael Fitzmaurice raised concerns over how rural indigenous industries – particularly agriculture and the peat industry – are being impacted by efforts to meet Ireland’s carbon emission reduction and renewable energy targets.

He argued that greater strides can be made in the transport sector – particularly in aviation – to reduce Ireland’s carbon footprint.

“If you want to talk about this whole carbon situation in Ireland, and indeed the world, no one is talking about the amount of emissions that planes are putting out.

Some of these people want to get rid of all the livestock in Ireland and to cut down on this, that and the other – but why aren’t we talking about emissions from planes?

“We should ground them if we need to. Don’t be going on your holidays if that’s the case, if we’re doing so much damage,” said deputy Fitzmaurice who represents the Galway-Roscommon constituency.

Under the EU’s Effort Sharing Decision targets, Ireland has agreed to deliver a 20% reduction in non-ETS greenhouse gas emissions, on 2005 levels, by 2020.

Non-ETS greenhouse gas emissions (non-Emissions Trading Scheme sector) include: agriculture; transport; residential; commercial; waste; and the non-energy intensive industry.

Earlier this year, Ireland also committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions level by 30% on 2005 levels by 2030.

Under the EU Renewable Energy Directive (2009) Ireland is also committed to producing at least 16% of all energy consumed in the Republic from renewable sources by 2020.

300-700% Emission Increase

According to the European Commission, by 2020, global international aviation emissions are projected to be around 70% higher than in 2005 and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) forecasts that by 2050 they could grow by a further 300-700%.

Along with other sectors, aviation is contributing to emission reductions within the EU through the EU emissions trading system.

CO2 emissions from aviation have been included in the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS) since 2012.

Under the EU ETS, all airlines operating in Europe, European and non-European alike, are required to monitor, report and verify their emissions, and to surrender allowances against those emissions.

They receive tradeable allowances covering a certain level of emissions from their flights per year.

The system has so far contributed to reducing the carbon footprint of the aviation sector by more than 17 million tonnes per year – with compliance covering over 99.5% of emissions.
In addition to market-based measures like the ETS, operational measures – such as modernising and improving air traffic management technologies, procedures and systems – also contribute to reducing aviation emissions.

In October 2016, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) agreed on a resolution for a global market-based measure to address CO2 emissions from international aviation as of 2021.

The agreed resolution sets out the objective and key design elements of the global scheme – as well as a road-map for the completion of the work on implementing modalities.

The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation, or CORSIA, aims to stabilise CO2 emissions at 2020 levels by requiring airlines to offset the growth of their emissions after 2020.

During the period 2021-2035, and based on expected participation, the scheme is estimated to offset around 80% of the emissions above 2020 levels.

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/by-2050-global-aviation-emissions-could-surge-by-700/

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See also

‘No one’s talking about emissions from airplanes’

By Claire Mc Cormack (Agri Land  Ireland)
Nov 1, 2018,

Independent TD Michael Fitzmaurice has stated that if the country is serious about tackling carbon emissions “airplanes should be grounded”.

Speaking tonight (Thursday, November 1) on episode nine of FarmLand, the TD who represents the Galway-Roscommon constituency joined Eamon Ryan, the leader of the Green Party, in a discussion on how rural indigenous industries are being impacted by efforts to meet the country’s carbon emission reduction and renewable energy targets.

Under the EU’s Effort Sharing Decision targets, Ireland has agreed to deliver a 20% reduction in non-ETS greenhouse gas emissions, on 2005 levels, by 2020.
Non-ETS greenhouse gas emissions (non-Emissions Trading Scheme sector) include: agriculture; transport; residential; commercial; waste; and the non-energy intensive industry.

Earlier this year, Ireland also committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions level by 30% on 2005 levels by 2030.

Under the EU Renewable Energy Directive (2009) Ireland is also committed to producing at least 16% of all energy consumed in the Republic from renewable sources by 2020.

If you want to talk about this whole carbon situation in Ireland, and indeed the world, no one is talking about the amount of emissions that planes are putting out.

“Some of these people want to get rid of all the livestock in Ireland and to cut down on this, that, and the other, but why aren’t we talking about emissions from planes?

“We should ground them if we need to. Don’t be going on your holidays if that’s the case, if we’re doing so much damage,” he said.

According to the Environmental Protection Agency emissions from agriculture are projected to increase by 3%-4% by 2020; and 6%-7% by 2030 on current levels.
In some quarters it has been claimed that this rise is linked to the expansion of stocking rates, particularly for the dairy herd.

However, Teagasc’s Brendan Horan recently highlighted that the current dairy herd is effectively the same size as 1988 – just shy of 1.4 million dairy cows.

Biomass Conundrum

Speaking just days after Bord na Mona’s unexpected announcement that it plans to completely stop peat harvesting in 2025 – five years ahead of its initial deadline of 2030 – as part of its latest decarbonisation agenda, Fitzmaurice contends that the future vision for the semi-state company is “not realistic”.

He also warned that Bord na Mona’s decision to cease peat harvesting in 2025 could potentially put the country’s fuel security at risk.

The company has confirmed that peat volumes to ESB will decline by approximately 50% from December 2019, when West Offaly Power Station (Shannonbridge) and Lough Ree Power Station (Lanesborough, Co. Longford) are no longer supported by the PSO subsidy and must co-fire with biomass to continue to operate.

Currently BNM is successfully co-fuelling its own power station at Edenderry, Co. Offaly, with peat and biomass. To date the co-fuelling has cut its annual carbon emissions by 40%.

However, Fitzmaurice is of the view that biomass is “not a sustainable option” for the power plants.

BNM has projected that its biomass demand from 2020 onwards will be an estimated 1.5 million tonnes.

The company has stated that the considerable increase in biomass volume will require imports to close the supply gap in the short-to-medium term.

It claims that maintaining a stable biomass supply is vital to supporting jobs in the peat business and across the midlands economy.

“Over the last year, I’ve been to the fore in saying that it’s uneconomical growing biomass in this country.

We know there are 3,000ac being grown at the moment and we are aware that there is something like 500ac after being put back into agricultural land for the simple reason that the economics don’t stack up.

“The reality of it is, that because of the movements last week and the announcements, we are now bounced five years sooner than what Bord na Mona had envisaged.

“Next year we are going to have a million tonnes less of peat – that’s what we have agreed on – and what is going to replace it?

“We haven’t got a magic wand that is going to replace it over night and we are in trouble in the line of biomass because that is what the focus has been on,” Fitzmaurice said.

Fuel Security
Fitzmaurice was also sceptical about the potential of wind powered generation.

We need fuel security in this country and we are now in danger. Where are we going for the next 10 years with making sure we have fuel security and making sure that we are not going to hit a bang?

“In my opinion we are sleepwalking into something. We are now this year at the peak of gas in Belmullet and in 2025 it is envisaged that that is gone.

“We don’t have a vision of what we are doing,” he warned.

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/no-ones-talking-about-emissions-from-airplanes/

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