The Problems

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All these points are backed by mainstream research – read more in our Briefings and Information section.

How many people are flying every year, worldwide?

IATA says the number of scheduled air passengers rose from 3,145,000,000 in 2013 to 4,579,000,000  (=  4.58 billion) anticipated in 2019.   ie. a rise of 46%.

IATA said 2.5 billion flew in 2009. http://bit.ly/fQWCgz  

IATA says the US has the most originating international air passengers with  UK, Germany, Spain and France next.  It says international passengers worldwide were 952 million in 2009 and domestic passengers were 1.5 billion in 2009.  IATA said (Feb 2011) they want to ” handle 16 billion passengers and 400 million tonnes of freight” by 2050.

There are around 800 million air passengers annually in Europe. And around 222 million in the UK (2011 figure, excluding transit).

IATA said (June 2012 link  that in 2011, aviation transported some 2.8 billion passengers (and 48 million tons of cargo).

See also World Bank data on the number of air passengers, country by country, 2002 – 2010.

ATAG says in 2012 there were “over 3 billion” passengers, but it gives no source. http://atag.org/facts-and-figures.html

How much carbon does the global aviation industry emit?

IATA says the amount of jet fuel consumed was 74 billion gallons in 2013 and 97 billion gallons anticipated in 2019.   ie. it rose by 31%.

IATA says the CO2 emissions of the global airline industry were were 710 million tonnes in 2013, and 915 million tonnes anticipated in 2019.  ie. they rose by 30.6%.          [ see link ]

IATA says the airline industry emitted 669 million tonnes CO2 in 2012.  [674 million tonnes in 2013  – up 2.6% on 2012].   [ IATA figures produced in 2019 say the CO2 figure was 710 million tonnes in 2013.  See link ]

IATA says 649 million tonnes CO2 in 2010  (compared with 627million tonnes in 2009).

(529 million tonnes in 2004, about 630 m in 2005 and 679 m in 2006).  About a 10 – 11% increase in CO2 emissions between 2005 and 2010.

IATA says: “Total climate change impact (including radiative forcing from other greenhouse gases) is 3%, and projected to grow to 5% by 2050 (IPCC)”.

http://www.iata.org/pressroom/facts_figures/fact_sheets/Pages/environment.aspx

IATA says globally aviation is responsible for:

• 669 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (2011) – compared to 34 billion tonnes of CO2 (2011) from human activities globally [IATA says 689 million tonnes in 2012].  In 2012  global CO2 emissions rose to 35.6 billion tonnes – according to  figures from the Global Carbon Project,  link ]
• 2% of “human-induced” global CO2 emissions
• 12% of CO2 emissions from all transport sources, compared to 74% from road transport
• 3% of the total man-made contribution to climate change

ATAG said (? for 2011) : “If aviation were a country, it would rank 19th in the world in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), generating $539 billion of GDP per year, considerably larger than some members of the G20 (and around the same size as Switzerland).  [Compared to its position as the 7th largest CO2 emitter – see below].

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From ATAG for 2015
http://www.atag.org/facts-and-figures.html

Worldwide, flights produced 770 million tonnes of CO2 in 2015. [Figure for international aviation, not including domestic, was 492,000 tonnes in 2013].

The aviation industry consumes around 1.5 billion barrels of Jet-A1 fuel annually. Aviation is responsible for 12% of carbon emissions from all transport sources, compared to 74% from road transport.
If aviation were a country, it would rank 21st in the world in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), generating $664 billion of GDP per year (in 2015), (around the same size as Switzerland).
Check details against https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

If aviation were a country, it would rank about 13th in the world, in terms of its carbon emissions. That is about the same (in 2013) as Saudi Arabia.
Check details against
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions

In 2013 the ranking of countries by carbon emissions was (Wikipedia):

1. China 10,540,000
2. United States 5,334,000
3. European Union 3,415,000
4. India 2,341,000
5. Russia 1,766,000
6. Japan 1,278,000
7. Germany 767,000
8. International Shipping 624,000 –
9. Iran 618,000
10. South Korea 610,000
11. Canada 565,000
12. Brazil 501,000
13. Saudi Arabia 494,000 1
14. International Aviation 492,000 –

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions

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Figures from ATAG show there were 649 million tonnes of CO2 emitted by airlines worldwide in 2010.  link

In 2011 it was 676 million tonnes.

Then 770 million tonnes in 2015.

That’s 18.6% higher in 2015 than in 2010.
And 14% higher carbon emissions in 2015 than in 2011, in that time global aviation went from equivalent to the 19th biggest country by GDP to being the 21st biggest.

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See also Climate change effect of the carbon dioxide emissions, and other gases emitted at altitude

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?product=jet-fuel

and growth rate of jet fuel use per year

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?product=jet-fuel&graph=consumption-growth-rate

Global [aviation] CO2 output grew to 674 million tonnes in 2013 up 2.6% – clearly new technology is yet to impact emissions, and the IATA goal of 1.5% fuel efficiency to 2020 is currently off track. http://www.aviationeconomics.com/NewsItem.aspx?title=RDC,-Aviation-Economics-and-the-World-of-Air-Transport

How much jet fuel is burned each year by the global aviation industry?

Aviation accounts for 12% of the fuel consumed by the entire transportation sector, which is equivalent to roughly 1.5 to 1.7 billion barrels of kerosene jet fuel annually (about 70 billion gallons).  A  barrel of oil is 42 US gallons (34.97 imperial gallons  or 158.98 litres)  http://biomasshub.com/knowledge-center/topic-guides/aviation-biofuels/

There can be 6 to 8 barrels of oil in a ton, depending on density. For example: 256 US gallons [6.1 bbl – oil barrels] of heavy distillate per ton, 272 gallons [6.5 bbl – oil barrels] of crude oil per ton, and 333 gallons [7.9 bbl] of gasoline per ton.  link 

So presuming 7 barrels of oil in a ton, and aviation is using some 1.7 billion barrels of kerosene per year, that is around 11.9 or 12 billion tons.

A barrel of crude oil is about 42 US gallons and depending on the grade of oil, can make about 19 US gallons of gasoline, 10 gallons of diesel, 4 gallons of jet fuel  [ie. that is 9.5% of the barrel that can be made into jet kerosene] and another 9 gallons of other oil products such as liquid petroleum gas, plastics, lubricants or heating oil.  So it takes about  10 barrels of crude oil to produce one barrel of jet fuel.

[Analysts project that aviation biofuels may replace roughly 1% of kerosene by 2015, 25% by 2025, and 30% by 2030. The CCC expects biofuel may replace 10% of UK jet fuel by 2050.  So if the industry just got 5% of its current fuel demand from biofuel, that would require 3.5 billion gallons per year. Wikipedia says in 2010 world biofuel production – all biofuels, not only biodiesel – was 28 billion gallons US, of which 82% was bioethanol, of no  use in aircraft. Only about 5 billion gallons of biodiesel were produced worldwide in 2010, much of it from palm oil.   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biofuel  The 28 billion gallons provided 2.7% of the world’s fuels for road transport ].

Jet A Fuel produces about 9.57 kg CO2 / gallon of fuel burned. Which is about 2.5 kg CO2 per litre.

[If the global aviation industry produced 649  million tonnes of CO2 in 2010 – see above – this equates to around 70 billion gallons, as 649m / 9.57 = approx 68 billion].

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How do global aviation emissions compare with emissions by large countries? It comes 7th.

Aviation emissions, worldwide (2009) were 7th compared to whole countries, after China, USA, India, Russia, Japan and Germany. Then global aviation.

http://blogs.edf.org/climatetalks/files/2012/07/Aviation-CO2-Ranking.jpg

http://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/petsonk-transcript-07232012.pdf

Sources:  International Civil Aviation Organization, International Energy Agency, United Nations Environment Programme)

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How many commercial planes are there in the world?

Difficult to get an accurate figure, but perhaps in the region of 34,000 in 2011.  Boeing said (July 2012) that it hoped to sell 34,000 planes by 2032, and so double the number.  ie.  it expects 60.000 odd by 2030?   It also said that it expects the world freighter fleet to nearly double from 1,740 aircraft currently  in 2012, to 3,200 in 20 years’ time. https://www.airportwatch.org.uk/?p=2530

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What proportion of UK citizens fly in any one year?

Around 50% – or 47% in 2010

In 2008 the Department for Transport publication, “Public experiences and attitudes to air travel” said “The survey indicates that 51% of adults had not flown in the last 12 months. This corresponds with the results of the 2002 Omnibus Survey, where 51% of adults had not flown in 2001. However, as the report notes, although the proportion of the population who have flown in the past year is the same in both surveys, in the more recent survey a higher proportion of air travellers were making multiple trips. In 2006, 30% of air travellers said they had flown three or more times in the last year; in 2002 the figure was 23%.”  (page 55 of link)

Also,  the DfT survey ‘Public experiences of and attitudes towards air travel’. of July 2010      ( link ) showed that 47% of adults had flown in the previous 12 months (down on the 49% recorded in the 2001 survey).  It states (on page 2):  “Just under half (47%) of adults had flown at least once in the last 12 months; 37% had made at least one short-haul flight, 18% had made a long-haul flight and 8% had made a domestic flight within the UK. A fifth (20%) of adults had made just one flight, 11% two flights and 16% three or more flights. These proportions are similar to the 2006 and 2008 Omnibus surveys “

In 2014 the DfT’s “Public experiences of and attitudes towards air travel. 2014″ said: “Just under half (48%) of adults surveyed had flown at least once in the last 12 months and 10% had made 4 or more flights.”  Outward and return flights and any transfers were counted as one trip. either within the United Kingdom or to go abroad. Short-haul flights to Europe were the most common; 37% of adults had taken a short-haul flight during the last 12 months, 18% had taken a long-haul flight and 7% had flown within the UK.

Frequency of flying increases with income and socio-economic group. Among respondents in managerial and professional occupations, 71% had made at least one flight in the last 12 months compared with 50% of those in intermediate or routine and 36% in manual occupations.

2.5  Respondents living in London or the South East were also more likely to have travelled by plane than people in the rest of the country. Over half (57%) of people in London and the South East had made at least one flight and 23% had made three or more in the last 12 months compared to 44% and 11% respectively in the rest of the country. People living in London and the South East were also more likely to have made a long-haul flight (29%) than people in the rest of Great Britain (14%) but had a similar propensity to fly within the UK.

A quarter of those who had not flown at all in the previous year said they expected to make more trips in the next year. Among those who had made three or more flights in the previous year, 14% anticipated making more flights and 20% anticipated making fewer flights in the coming year.

Respondents who expected to make more flights were asked why they believed this would be the case. The most common reason, cited by half of those that expected to make more flights, was because they wanted to go abroad more. Other reasons included changes in personal circumstances (20%) and having friends/relatives who had moved abroad (10%).

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/336702/experiences-of-attitudes-towards-air-travel.pdf

(the survey is of a bit over 1,000  adults aged 16 and over living in private households in Great Britain.)

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How many seat kilometres do UK airlines fly each year?

(one seat kilometre is one person flying one kilometre)

The increase in seat kilometres used – by UK airlines – between 1991 and 2011 was 153%.  The increase was 22% between 2001 and 2011.

Data from CAA AirlineStatistics.  Seat Kilometres available and used 1989 to 2011

See also  Seat kilometres used by UK airlines over the past 5 years

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What proportion of UK airport passengers are flying for business reason, compared to holidays or visiting friends and family?

In 2010, the proportion of business passengers (as compared to leisure, including visiting friends and family) was 29.9% at Heathrow, 20.4% at Gatwick, 29.5% at Manchester, 19.6% at Luton and 17.7% at Stansted.  Data from the Health Protection Agency shows the proportion of business passengers has been falling steadily since 2000.

See Business passengers

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Average flight distance by UK airlines is increasing

CAA Data from 2005       CAA data from 2011

[Seat km used divided by number of passengers uplifted – so an average figure].

British Airways averaged 3,518 km per passenger (on average) in 2011 but 3,394 km in 2005.

EasyJet averaged 1,136 km per passenger in 2011 but  954 km in 2005.

[Virgin Atlantic (almost no increase)  averaged 7,197 km per passenger in 2011 and 7,146 km in 2005].

Thomson Airways averaged 2.983 km per passenger in 2011 but 2,447 km by Thomson Fly in 2005.

Thomas Cook averaged 3,440 km per passenger in 2011 but 2,907 km in 2005.

BMI averaged 1,391 km per passenger  in 2011 but 910 in 2005.
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Which airlines have the largest number of annual revenue passenger kilometres (RPK)?

This puts Delta Airlines top, with over 300 billion passenger kilometres in 2011.

From Financial Times

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Which are the largest airports in the world?

The world’s busiest airports 2015

1. Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport
2. Beijing Capital International Airport
3. Dubai International Airport
4. O’Hare International Airport
5. Tokyo Haneda Airport
6. London Heathrow Airport
7. Los Angeles International Airport
8. Hong Kong International Airport
9. Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport
10. Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport

What is ICAO doing so far to cut global aviation emissions?

International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) 2010 resolution:

“Resolves that States and relevant organizations will work through ICAO to achieve a
global annual average fuel efficiency improvement of 2% until 2020 and an aspirational global fuel efficiency improvement rate of 2% per annum from 2021 to 2050, calculated on the basis of volume of fuel used per revenue tonne kilometre performed”. (page 11) and

Also resolves that, without any attribution of specific obligations to individual States,
ICAO and its member States with relevant organizations will work together to strive to achieve a collective medium term global aspirational goal of keeping the global net carbon emissions from international aviation from 2020 at the same level, …”  (page 11)

What their phrase “carbon neutral growth” from 2020 means is only that airlines can offset emissions above 2020 levels starting in 2021.  No need to actually cut emissions.

The 2010 ICAO resolution itself recognizes the proposal is not enough. It says:

“the aspirational goal of 2% annual fuel efficiency improvement is unlikely to deliver the level of reduction necessary to stabilize and then reduce aviation’s absolute emissions contribution to climate change, and that goals of more ambition will need to be considered to deliver a sustainable path for aviation.”

The proposal by IATA, the aviation industry, is even weaker than the ICAO resolution, and allows emissions to continue to grow.

Above: the emissions-reductions proposal of the International Air Transport Association IATA) (green), and business-as-usual emissions (red-brown).

Aviation and Noise

 Millions of people are disturbed by aircraft noise….and it will get worse

Figures below from the 2001 National Noise Study carried out by the Building Research Establishment (BRE) for DEFRA – the most comprehensive study of recent years.

Bothered, annoyed or disturbed by it:  
 
Aircraft Noise                               20% bothered to some extent
Traffic Noise                                 40%    ”       ”         ”
Neighbour/neighbourhood Noise     37%    ”        ”        “

Individual planes have become considerably quieter since the 1970s but this has been off-set by the huge growth in aircraft numbers – causing more noise in total. 

What legal controls are there on aircraft noise in the UK?

Have planes actually become quieter in the past few years, and are A380s quieter than 747s?

Figures from NATS below:

http://www.londonairspaceconsultation.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/LAC_Appendix_J_StandardNoiseTables.pdf

ARRIVALS  

DEPARTURES

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More information on noise claims by the A380 and the Boeing 787 here

https://www.airportwatch.org.uk/2013/07/musicians-look-to-clean-up-their-acts/

The type of engine is also important.

Airbus said: “Airbus’ 21st century flagship A380 is the quietest long-haul aircraft flying today, generating 50% less noise on departure than its nearest competitor – all while carrying 40% more passengers.”  Link

And Heathrow said:  “Heathrow has played a key role in enabling local residents to share in the reductions in aircraft noise that the A380 delivers. Following input from key airlines operating at Heathrow, the A380 was specifically designed to meet one of the quietest noise categories. Because airlines value the ability to operate at Heathrow during the day and night, and Heathrow’s standards are directly driving the development of quieter aircraft.

“The A380 generates at least 50 per cent less noise than its nearest competitor at take-off and on landing, the A380 meets the most stringent noise rules at any international airport, namely London’s Heathrow airport – QC2 for departures and QC0.5 for arrivals. This is of major benefit both to A380 operators who have more flexibility to operate night-time flights, and to airports, since passenger capacity will be increased while limiting the impact of noise on the surrounding communities.” Airbus  ”  Link

Also on the Boeing 787 https://www.airportwatch.org.uk/2012/05/dreamliner/

Also briefings at  Noise Briefings 

Complaining about noisy and off-track aircraft:

If you have complaints about noise, or of planes away from set flight paths, you can complain to your local airport management (check who is the appropriate manager to write to). 

Send a copy to the DfT:  Aviation Environmental Policy, Department for Transport, Great Minster House, 76 Marsham Street, London, SW1P 4DR

Aviation and Climate Change

This shows global CO2 levels, month by month, from Mauna Loa.  Details http://co2now.org/

Air Quality at and Around Airports

Air pollution is a major issue for those who live in the vicinity of large airports.  EU legal limits came into place in 2010 but that they are being breached, especially round Heathrow. The Environmental Audit Committee published a pretty damning report earlier in November 2011.  Details.  It may also be that limits are being breached around London City Airport.   

Emissions from aircraft, air-side support vehicles and airport related traffic all contribute to a build up of potentially harmful gases such as oxides of nitrogen, carbon monoxide, VOCs (volatile organic compounds) and ozone. They also produce small particulates.

The most important pollutants are usually nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and small particulates (PM10, PM2.5). These often breach standards set by the UK government and the EU to protect human health.

Blight and quality of life

Aviation and the economy

“Surely we need flying for the economy?”

Tourism Deficit 

There is a “tourism deficit” to the UK economy – estimated at around £ 13 – 20 billion per year over the past decade.  This is the difference in spending (other than on travel tickets*) between money spent by visitors to the UK, and the money spent by Brits travelling abroad.

Every year, a great deal more money is spent by UK residents travelling abroad, than by foreign visitors coming here.

The component of the tourism deficit from trips made by air travel is a large part of it.  For instance, in 2010 the air travel component was £12.4 billion our of a total tourism deficit (including ship and Channel Tunnel) of £14.2 billion.

In 2011, the air travel component was £11.2 billion, out of the total of £13.1 billion.

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Below are recent Tourism Deficit figures from the ONS, from their Overseas Travel and Tourism reports.  

2004    £17.2 billion

2005    £ 17.9 billion

Spending by Overseas visitors’ trips to the UK in 2019.
£28,228 – by all travel modes
£24,933 – by air     (air is 88%)

 ONS data

Tourism Deficit in 2012  – £13.8 billion (£13.7 billion in 2011)

Tourism Deficit for 2011  – £13.7 billion (£14.9 billion in 2010)

Employment

See  “Airport Jobs: false hopes, cruel hoax”  (March 2009)

The aviation industry routinely claims it creates huge numbers of jobs for the UK economy. In practice, most low price airlines make every effort they can to reduce the number of employees (automatic check in, automatic baggage systems etc) and the number of jobs created per extra million passengers is not high, and has reduced over the years.

According to the OEF (Oxford Economic Forecasting – not part of Oxford University) report “The Economic Contribution of the Aviation Industry in the UK” (OEF) published in 2006, http://www.oef.com/Free/pdfs/Aviation2006Final.pdf  the number of direct jobs in the aviation sector in 2004 was 186,000 (full time equivalents) at a time that there were 215m terminal passengers.

However, the same body (OEF) stated that 180,000 were directly employed by the industry in 1998 in their previous report (1999), a year in which 159m passengers were handled.  From this it would seem that a 34% increase in passengers led to only a 3% increase in jobs. This is not a strong reason to believe that net jobs will increase if aviation expands further.  (Details)

According to the ONS the aviation industry directly provided an average of 120,000 UK jobs in 2009, a third fewer than in 1998 despite a 37% increase in the number of passengers carried.  By comparison – again using the ONS estimate – the UK tourism industry directly supports 1.7m jobs in the UK.   (Details)

Using figures supplied by the Airport Operators Association, OEF found that the aviation industry directly employed 186,000 people (full time equivalents) in 2004.

 Economic Benefit

Government Aviation Policy

UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts  – 2007, 2009 and 2011

UK commitment to not allowing its carbon emissions rise above the level in 2005 by 2050

December 2009 – Committee on Climate Change Report

VAT and Fuel Duty – neither is charged on air travel

Carbon offsetting for your flight – does it work?

An article in the Sunday Times reveals that offsetting schemes involving tree planting can take a century to remove the CO2 from the atmosphere, making them very ineffective as a meals of reducing the climate changing effect of emissions.  Offsetting your carbon footprint takes decades  

“Cheatneutral”

If you can’t make your mind up about offsetting, have a look at the Cheatneutral website.   As it helpfully says: “What is Cheat Offsetting?
When you cheat on your partner you add to the heartbreak, pain and jealousy in the atmosphere.  Cheatneutral offsets your cheating by funding someone else to be faithful and NOT cheat. This neutralises the pain and unhappy emotion and leaves you with a clear conscience.”

The aviation industry’s advertising ………..

The industry is very good at telling part of the truth, and using adverts to put their message across. There are the BAA adverts showing maps of the world covered in the words Opportunities and Customers emblazoned across the whole world, showing Customers in large letters across Siberia and the Sahara.  And many more.  The airports are working hard to cut their ground emissions, installing wind turbines, recycing paper, cutting down on energy used for lighting etc. All very laudable and excellent. But at the same time aiming to increase flights by as much as possible, negating the savings made. So …sadly … greenwash.  The ads by IATA below take some beating though.

IATA – mastery of greenwash – The IATA adverts

IATA  (the International Air Transport Association) has produced a series of adverts, which appear in in-flight magazines and in other media.  The aim is to tell people how green flying is, how the aviation industry is trying very hard to reduce emissions, and how flying really is wonderful.   Their solutions to the carbon emissions problem range from reducing the number of ice cubes on board planes, blaming cows, flying in straight lines, to keeping the planes clean.

  

“Love Miles”

For some thought-provoking opinions on “love miles” (the air journeys taken to visit friends or relatives abroad) see Tahmina Anam’s piece in Guardian Comment – and the many, many comments it generated.

“I’m trying hard to be eco-friendly.  But please don’t ask me to give up flying to visit my family”

24th April 2008.     Tahmina Anam, a Pakistani living in Britain, says “there is no other way to live apart, no other way to make it OK that our lives happen in each other’s absence, than to allow ourselves the promise of regular visits.” (Guardian Comment)  

 

 

Watch the YouTube video of air traffic over Europe

 loads slowly!

 

 

Watch the YouTube video of global air traffic

 

 

Flightmapping – shows which airports fly to which countries

 

 

Consultation by DfT on the Aviation Scoping Document

Closed 20th October 2011.  This is the first part of a consultation exercise to produce a new UK aviation policy, to be published in March 2013, after a second consultation in 2012.  The Scoping Document consultation was a general one, to frame the future policy.  Its questions are quite vague. It also asks responses to be evidence-based. AirportWatch therefore produced a range of supporting documents.  These can be seen at Scoping Documents – evidence papers  The responses from AirportWatch, and many other organisations are also available on that page.

The Aviation Scoping Document consultation document is at
http://www2.dft.gov.uk/consultations/open/2011-09/consultationdocument.pdf

with information on how to reply etc athttps://www.airportwatch.org.uk/news/detail.php?art_id=4535