New Air traffic forecasts: Government expects growth in air travel to slow down considerably

The Department for Transport expects the rate of growth in air travel to slow down considerably over the coming decades.  Their passenger forecasts published late yesterday expect demand for air travel to increase by just 1%-3% a year up to 2050 compared to historical growth rates of 5% a year over the last 40 years.  The DfT lists 4 reasons for the slow down in growth for air travel: – higher oil prices; – an end to the decline in average fares seen in the last two decades; – the maturity of the air travel market to and from the UK; – and the availability of alternative modes of travel. The Department estimates that the major South East airports will be full by 2030 but recognizes there is some uncertainty about this: “ there is a range around this projection and they could be full as soon as 2025 or as late as 2040”. The central forecast, taking into account the impact of capacity constraints, is for passenger numbers at UK airports to increase from 219 million passengers in 2011 to 315 million in 2030 and 445 million by 2050. Compared to the DfT forecasts in August 2011, these forecasts are 6% lower for 2030 and 5% lower for 2050. Any proposals for airport expansion must be seen in this light.

 

 

 

30.1.2013  (HACAN)

The Department for Transport expects the rate of growth in air travel to slow down considerably over the coming decades. 

Their passenger forecasts published late yesterday expect demand for air travel to increase by just 1%-3% a year up to 2050 compared to historical growth rates of 5% a year over the last 40 years.

The Department gives four reasons for the slow down:

– higher oil prices;

– an end to the decline in average fares seen in the last two decades;

– the maturity of the air travel market to and from the UK;

– and the availability of alternative modes of travel. 

The Department estimates that the major South East airports will be full by 2030 but recognizes there is some uncertainty about this: “ there is a range around this projection and they could be full as soon as 2025 or as late as 2040”.  

John Stewart, chair of HACAN, which represents residents under the Heathrow flight paths, said, “The exact figures about future demand may be uncertain but the trend is unmistakable:  the growth in air travel in the developed world is slowing down.  Any proposals for airport expansion must be seen in this light.”

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Link to the full consultation, including the Executive Summary   https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/69925/uk-aviation-forecasts.pdf

Graph below from AEF:

government forecasts between 2000 and 2013

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https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/69925/uk-aviation-forecasts.pdf

 The Executive Summary, from the January 2013 DfT forecasts, states:

Key findings

This report sets out forecasts of passenger numbers, air transport movements and aviation carbon emissions at UK airports.

Demand for air travel is forecast to increase within the range of 1% – 3% a year up to 2050, compared to historical growth rates of 5% a year over the last 40 years. The slowdown in growth rates in the future reflects the anticipation of market maturity across different passenger markets and a projected end to the long-term decline in average fares seen in the last two decades.

The central forecast, taking into account the impact of capacity constraints, is for passenger numbers at UK airports to increase from 219 million passengers in 2011 to 315 million in 2030 and 445 million by 2050. This is an increase of 225 million passengers over the next 40 years compared to an increase of 185 million since 1970.

The central forecasts of passenger numbers have been reduced by around 7% in 2030 from levels last forecast by the DfT in August 2011. Primarily this reflects revisions to the Office of Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecasts for the UK economy and the Department of Energy and Climate Change’s (DECC) projections of oil prices.

The major South East airports are forecast to be full by 2030. However, there is a range around this projection and they could be full as soon as 2025 or as late as 2040. Heathrow remains full across all the demand cases considered.

CO2 emissions from flights departing the UK are forecast to increase from 33.3 MtCO 2 in 2011 to 47 MtCO2 within the range 35 – 52MtCO2 by 2050.

 

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Below are a few items from the DfT January 2013 forecasts:

 government forecasts constrained pax 2011 and 2013

 

Government forecasts of business and leisure

 

The DfT are saying business passengers were 24.5% in 2010, and about 27% in 2030, 2040 and 2050.  The remaining approximately 73% are leisure travellers.

 

Full document at https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/69925/uk-aviation-forecasts.pdf

 

by contrast, the forecasts from August 2011 are at  http://assets.dft.gov.uk/publications/uk-aviation-forecasts-2011/uk-aviation-forecasts.pdf