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BAA believes that by 2032 HS2 will cut Heathrow domestic flights. Numbers have been falling over the past 10 years anyway

 BAA Heathrow backs HS2, and believes that once the spur to Heathrow is built by 2032 it will boost the airport.  It does not see a great benefit from the first phase of HS2 to Birmingham only, but the benefit starts once the Y shaped links to Leeds and Manchester are built.  BAA estimates that there might be some 22% fewer domestic flights from Heathrow after 2032.  (There were  around 45 – 46,000 domestic flights to or from Heathrow in 2010, so 9 – 10,000 might be cut). However, unless the ETS deterred a switch from domestic flights to long haul, it is likely that the slots previously used for short flights would be used for long haul, so greatly increasing overall carbon emissions. The GMB continues to press for a third Heathrow runway.



16.1.2012 (Skyport Heathrow)

HS2 spells end to thousands of flights

By Salina Patel

THE HS2 rail link, which was given the green light [last] week, will cut thousands of domestic flights at Heathrow.

Initial figures from BAA show the high speed rail line will replace between 9,000 to 10,000 air trips a year.

Last year, there were 45,806 domestic services to and from Heathrow, but the new rail link will result in around a 22 per cent reduction, says BAA. [By comparison there were around 45,000 flights in 2010, making domestic about  roughly 10%].

Initial figures from the airport operator are based on the full direct link to Heathrow, including the route to Leeds and Manchester, expected to be in place by 2032.

Fewer flights will be affected by phase one, which will run from London to Birmingham with an interchange at Old Oak Common, allowing for onward travel to Heathrow.

Free slots could potentially be replaced by long haul routes, possibly to emerging economies, but this will be addressed by airlines along with Airport Coordination Limited (ACL), which has responsibility over slot allocations at UK airports.

A BAA spokesperson said: “BAA welcomes the news that the Government is to press ahead with its plans for a high speed rail network. Improved transport links are vital to the UK economy – without them we risk being left behind our European competitors.

“The route of HS2, with its planned link to Heathrow, reinforces the unique position of the airport to integrate into the Government’s transport strategy.”

As HS2 was given the go-ahead, airport workers union GMB made a renewed call for a third runway at Heathrow.

Politicians were urged to reopen the policy to safeguard the economy and jobs in west London.

With the prospect of a Heathrow spur in the second phase of HS2, GMB has said a third runway is far less expensive than building a new hub airport from scratch.

Mick Rix, GMB national officer for the civil aviation industry, said: “The billions that would be wasted building a new hub elsewhere in the region should instead be spent on much needed energy and transport infrastructure projects across the UK.

“Some of this money saved could be spent on sound insulation for properties in Heathrow’s flight path.

“New runways at many European hub airports are already taking Heathrow business.

“This is already having a detrimental knock on effect to jobs, skills and the economy of London and the UK.

“It is time to confront the reality that the future is Heathrow and any other solution like Boris Island is ‘pie in the sky’.”

http://www.skyport-heathrow.co.uk/2012/01/hs2-spells-end-to-thousands-of.html  

The number of terminal passengers on domestic services peaked in 2005 at 24.7 million and  has since fallen by 23% to 19 million in 2010 (excluding double counting at domestic airports).  DfT transport statistics


The number of domestic passengers using Heathrow were:

2010   4,840,832

2009   5,254,605

2008   5,562,516

2007  5,753,476

2006   5,993,386

2005   6,672,965

2004   6,925,000

2000   7,403,921

1999  7,141,253

details below

 


However, see

Carbon Impacts of HS2

http://www.51m.co.uk/sites/default/files/uploads/ch6.pdf

Nigel Milton, Director of Policy and Political Relations at BAA t Heathrow told the ENDS Report (an environmental website):

” ….That means more long-haul flights…every time BMI or British Airways have
cancelled a domestic route in the past, they’ve replaced it with a more
profitable medium- or long- haul route. That’s exactly what will happen
when HS2 comes and more domestic routes get cut.”

 

and

Decision Day for HS2: Good for politics – likely a waste of money for the public

http://www.neweconomics.org/blog/2012/01/10/decision-day-for-hs2-good-for-politics-%E2%80%93-likely-a-waste-of-money-for-the-public

Critically, CO2 reductions from travellers switching from domestic flights to HS2 can only be realized if the airport slots that were used for domestic flights are closed which is unlikely. In reality, the slots are likely to be filled with more carbon intensive international flights,significantly increasing net carbon emissions. Highly concerning is Government commissioned information suggesting that more CO2 will be emitted during construction of HS2 than will be saved over 60 years, even if HS2 captures 100% of all travel between London and Manchester.

 

and

THINK HS2 IS AN ALTERNATIVE TO FLIGHTS? THINK AGAIN!

http://www.flightmapping.com/james-blog/think-hs2-is-an-alternative-to-flights-think-again

(a few excerpts from a long article) …

… The train has already won the battle for point to point travel between London and northern England, with flights no longer being available between London City and Liverpool, or between London Heathrow or Gatwick and Leeds/Bradford airports. The high-frequency shuttle flights from London City airport to Manchester dwindled to just a handful each day before being axed, whereas flights from Manchester to Stansted are also well and truly finished.

… Therefore, the only flight routes which would run directly in competition with the new rail line are those which operate from London Heathrow and Gatwick to Manchester. Even this route is highly vulnerable to the pressures of Air Passenger Duty (APD), which results in two sets of charges for passengers taking domestic flights, against one set for those people taking flights to mainland Europe and beyond. Already, three quarters of passengers on [domestic flights to Heathrow] are taking connecting flights elsewhere — not only are these taxed differently, but they are less likely to be substituted by rail services if passengers can make a direct connection in one terminal.

… The current total market for flights between Manchester and London is around 1,000,000 passengers per year, although the market for point to point flights, as opposed to flight connections is clearly much smaller than that.

… In effect, there is a significant squeeze both at the top and bottom end of the market in terms of operating a competing train service, compared with flights from London to Edinburgh and Glasgow. And European experience shows that a good fast train service may result in a reduction in frequency of flights, but it rarely actually kills the route entirely. For example, despite the TGV from Lyon to Paris offering fares from just £23 each way, and a service to both central Paris and CDG airport for connecting flights, Air France still operate multiple daily flights from to both Paris Orly and CDG airports from Lyon.


Heathrow domestic passengers.

Domestic Terminal Passengers CAA data) from  CAA airport statistics   http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=80&pagetype=88&pageid=3&sglid=3 

Numbers of passengers to or from Heathrow  2010
Edinburgh    1,244,793
Glasgow    1,003,344
Leeds Bradford 152
Liverpool   30
Manchester    799,264
Newcastle    424,251
Total domestic terminal passengers Heathrow 2010     4,840,832
Total Domestic Terminal Passengers at All Reporting UK Airports 2010  38,021,972


Numbers of passengers to or from Heathrow  2009
Edinburgh 1,306,065
Glasgow 1,079,970
Leeds Bradford 21,160
Liverpool 368
Manchester 908,723
Newcastle 475,432
Total domestic terminal passengers Heathrow 2009 5,254,605
Total Domestic Terminal Passengers at All Reporting UK Airport 2009  41,740,382

 

Numbers of passengers to or from Heathrow 2008
Edinburgh 1,318,962
Glasgow 1,143,533
Leeds Bradford 126,069
Liverpool 97
Manchester 910,101
Newcastle 527,579
Total domestic terminal passengers Heathrow 2008  5,562,516
Total Domestic Terminal Passengers at All Reporting UK Airport 2008  45,580,484

 

Numbers of passengers to or from Heathrow  2007
Total domestic terminal passengers Heathrow   5,753,476
Total Domestic Terminal Passengers at All Reporting UK Airport 2007   47,993,038


Numbers of passengers to or from Heathrow  2006
Total domestic terminal passengers Heathrow    5,993,386
Total All Reporting UK Airports 2006   49,724,129


Numbers of passengers to or from Heathrow   2005
Edinburgh 1,660,261
Glasgow 1,427,065

Leeds Bradford 178,988
Liverpool 127
Manchester 1,265,160
Newcastle 527,579

Total domestic terminal passengers Heathrow  2005  6,672,96
Total Domestic Terminal Passengers at All Reporting UK Airport 2005   50,199,796


Numbers of passengers to or from Heathrow  2004
Edinburgh 1,696,300
Glasgow 1,535,570
Leeds Bradford 184,729
Liverpool –
Manchester 1,401,546
Newcastle 520,361
Total domestic terminal passengers Heathrow 2004   6,925,000
Total Domestic Terminal Passengers at All Reporting UK Airport  2004   48,514,674


Numbers of passengers to or from Heathrow  2000

Total domestic terminal passengers at Heathrow 2000 7,403,921
Total Domestic Terminal Passengers at All Reporting UK Airport 2000 37,305,849

 

Numbers of passengers to or from Heathrow  1999

Total domestic terminal passengers at Heathrow 1999   7,141,253
Total Domestic Terminal Passengers at All Reporting UK Airport 1999   35,041,843