Airports Commission figures show Heathrow runway to provide, at the most, just 12 more long haul destinations
Date added: 15 September, 2015
The Airports Commission said that a very important reason for building a new runway, and Heathrow in particular, was to increase the connectivity with “long-haul destinations in new markets.” And so it would be logical to believe their analysis would show that a new runway at Heathrow, (or Gatwick) would show a large increase in these routes. The Commission’s own work [using their Assessment of Need scenario, carbon capped] forecasts that while Heathrow (2011) had 57 destinations with at least a daily flight, this would only rise to 63 without a new runway. It would only rise to 73 with a 3rd runway. That is just 10 more. For the UK as a whole, including all airports, the Commission forecasts that the number of long haul destinations in 2011 was 61, and this would rise to 82 even without a new runway. The total number would only rise to 87 with a new Heathrow runway. That is just 5 more. And their figures indicate that the number of long haul destinations from regional airports would fall from 23 to 21 by 2050 and be slightly lower than they would have been without a new runway. So much for boosting the “Northern Powerhouse.” The Commission said a Heathrow runway could provide “up to 12 additional long-haul destinations.”
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The Airports Commission considers that only a very tiny number of extra long haul destinations would actually be added by a Heathrow runway.
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[The Airports Commission has used a number of scenarios, in its attempt to forecast future demand – the one it uses most often is “Assessment of Need” (AON). They also model their forecasts using either a “Carbon Capped” or “Carbon Traded” version. Under carbon capped, it is presumed that UK aviation does not exceed a total of 37.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year by 2050. Under the carbon traded scenario, it is presumed that there will be a very high carbon price (£300 – £600 per tonne of carbon) agreed at some future date, and aviation carbon emissions will be controlled by the higher price of air travel in future. AirportWatch note]
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For convenience, we have chosen to look at the “Assessment of Need” scenario, and the Carbon Capped version
If you look at Table 5.10 on page 87.
LinkJust taking a little portion of it – below – looking only at their “Assessment of Need” scenario and the “carbon capped” version
Table 5.10: Baseline, (ie. no new runway) destinations served with daily scheduled services, carbon capped
and then by contrast with the Heathrow NW runway
Table 6.28, Option Heathrow Airport Northwest Runway, destinations served with daily scheduled services, carbon capped
And by contrast with a 2nd Gatwick runway:
Page 158 Table 6.26: Option Gatwick Airport Second Runway, destinations served with daily scheduled services, carbon capped (revised)
Long haul routes (at least one scheduled flight per day)
This shows that for the UK as a whole, the number of routes to long haul destinations, if there is no new runway, might be (61 in 2011); 74 in 2030; 79 in 2040; and 82 in 2050.
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With a Heathrow north west runway, for the UK as a whole, the number of routes to long haul destinations, might be (61 in 2011); 74 in 2030; 84 in 2040; and 87 in 2050.
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With a Gatwick 2nd runway, for the UK as a whole, the number of routes to long haul destinations, might be (61 in 2011); 75 in 2030; 81 in 2040; and 85 in 2050.
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That means an increase of only 5 more long haul routes, with at least one flight per day, by building a new Heathrow runway. Or 3 more long haul routes with a 2nd Gatwick runway.
International routes in total (including lots of European leisure destinations) with at least one flight per day
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Without any new runways, the number of routes to international destinations from regional airports (“Other modelled airports”) would be (46 in 2011), 88 in 2030; 99 in 2040; and 109 in 2050.
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With a Heathrow NW runway, the number of routes to international destinations from regional airports would be (46 in 2011), 77 in 2030, 87 in 2040 and 95 in 2050.
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With a Gatwick 2nd runway, the number of routes to international destinations from regional airports would be 88 in 2030, 105 in 2040, and 102 in 2050.
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That indicates there are likely to be 14 fewer routes to international destinations from regional airports by 2050 if there is a Heathrow runway (and also by 2050 with a Gatwick runway). So the runways are not benefiting the regional airports.
That means an increase of only 11 more international routes, with at least one flight per day, by building a new Heathrow runway. Or 9 more international routes with a 2nd Gatwick runway. It also means no increase in international routes from regional airports, if there is a 3rd Heathrow runway.
It states:
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Para 13.10 “While expansion at Gatwick would also deliver improvements in the UK’s aviation capacity and connectivity, these would be more likely to be focused on short-haul and European links. The number of long-haul destinations at an expanded Gatwick would be at most 4 higher in 2030 than it would be if no new capacity is added and by 2050 only 1 higher, and at national level long-haul capacity would only increase by up to 5 million seats; this compares to up to 12 additional long-haul destinations at an expanded Heathrow and up to 16 million extra seats nationally. The degree of global connectivity and the wider impacts on the UK economy created by expansion at Heathrow could not be delivered by a second runway at Gatwick.”
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The Commission also says: (Page 4 –
Link)
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“We have concluded that the best answer is to expand Heathrow’s runway capacity. A brand new airport in the Thames Estuary, while appealing in theory, is unfeasibly expensive, highly problematic in environmental terms and would be hugely disruptive for many businesses and communities. Gatwick, by contrast, has presented a plausible case for expansion. It is well placed to cater for growth in intra-European leisure flying, but is unlikely to provide as much of the type of capacity which is most urgently required: long-haul destinations in new markets.”
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The figures from the Strategic Fit document appear to be saying, at least looking at the AON case (Assessment of Need) and carbon capped, that there would be an increase of long-haul destinations with a daily scheduled service, up from 61 now to 82 by 2050 – with no new runways added. With a Heathrow NW runway that 82 rises to 87. With a Gatwick runway, it rises to 85.
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So much for the vital links to emerging economies etc. But if you trawl through the figures, it does seem that the Commission is predicting a higher proportion of business passengers travelling by air by 2050 than in 2011.
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25.39 % business Heathrow in 2011 Table 5.5 (nationally 14.00% business) and with no runways (base case, AON, carbon traded) in 2030 35.5% business Heathrow (nationally 21.8% business in 2030) AON.
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Posted: Tuesday, September 15th, 2015. Filed in Blog, General News, News about Airports, Recent News.
