Heathrow expansion would exacerbate London’s housing challenge, with up to 70,000 more homes needed by 2030

A 3rd Heathrow runway would exacerbate London’s housing challenge. The Airports Commission considered between about 30,000 and 70,000 extra homes needed in the area, for the extra employees attracted to the area, by 2030.  In the recent report by the Mayor of London, he considers that there might demand for around 80,000 extra new homes by 2050, due to Heathrow with new direct, indirect and induced jobs  Most will need to be accommodated in the region. The Airports Commission said: “…an average of some 500 homes per year in each of 14 local authorities – may be challenging to deliver, …” The Mayor says: “By 2030 the number of people living in the city will grow by 1.4 million to 10 million. By 2050 this number is forecast to be about 11.3 million … .West London and the areas surrounding the airport are, however, already struggling to keep up with background growth, in the face of overheated property markets and increasingly limited land supply. …The Airports Commission believes that expansion can be accommodated without placing additional pressure on housing. Primarily, it claims this by drawing on local unemployment to fill the new jobs; however, this is not borne out by experience of similar schemes; expansion will require a variety of skills levels and will attract employees from across the London area.”
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Heathrow expansion would exacerbate London’s housing challenge, mayor’s report says

22 March 2016

by Winnie Agbonlahor (Planning Resource)

Expanding Heathrow Airport would exacerbate London’s housing challenge, while the health risks caused by a third runway would cost the government up to £25 billion over 60 years, a new report by the mayor of London claims.

With London’s population predicted to grow to 11.3 million by 2050, London’s housing challenge would be exacerbated by a Heathrow expansion, the report says.

It said: “The Airports Commission expects an expanded Heathrow to generate an additional 80,000 new direct, indirect and induced jobs by 2050 … A significant proportion of these new employees will need to be accommodated in the region.  ( Airports Commission Nov 2014  The Commission adds: “The additional housing at the upper end of this range – which equates to an average of some 500 homes per year in each of 14 local authorities – may be challenging to deliver, especially give that many local authorities struggle to meet current housing targets.” AW comment )

“West London and the areas surrounding the airport are, however, already struggling to keep up with background growth, in the face of overheated property markets and increasingly limited land supply.”

Johnson argued that the only solution to Britain’s aviation dilemma was to pursue plans for a new hub airport to the east of the capital, away from populated areas.

He added that Heathrow’s “cramped urban location simply cannot accommodate the kind of airport this country requires to compete on the global stage and the cost to the taxpayer of necessary road and rail connections would be huge”.

…… there is more on noise, health etc ….. full article at

http://www.planningresource.co.uk/article/1388411/heathrow-expansion-exacerbate-londons-housing-challenge-mayors-report-says

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The Mayor’s report, “Landing The Right Airport”  states:

“Housing and regeneration

London’s population challenge

London is growing. By 2030 the number of people living in the city will grow by 1.4 million
to 10 million. By 2050 this number is forecast to be about 11.3 million. 

This represents a huge housing challenge for the boroughs and districts of London and the
South East in accommodating this exponential growth in population.
Exacerbated by Heathrow

The Airports Commission expects an expanded Heathrow to generate an additional 80,000 new direct, indirect and induced jobs by 2050 (notwithstanding the issues with staffing
numbers raised earlier). A significant proportion of these new employees will need to be
accommodated in the region. West London and the areas surrounding the airport are, however, already struggling to keep up with background growth, in the face of overheated property markets and increasingly limited land supply.

The Airports Commission believes that expansion can be accommodated without placing additional pressure on housing. Primarily, it claims this by drawing on local unemployment to fill the new jobs; however, this is not borne out by experience of similar schemes; expansion will require a variety of skills levels and will attract employees from across the London area.”

http://content.tfl.gov.uk/landing-the-right-airport.pdf

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Earlier:

Windsor councillor says there would be homes ‘turmoil’ if Heathrow is expanded

A Windsor councillor has said that creating up to 70,800 homes if Heathrow expansion plans go ahead would cause “absolute turmoil.”   He said a 3rd runway north-west of the airport could create the need to use greenbelt land for housing.  However, almost unbelievably, a Heathrow spokesman said: “There will be little or no need for additional house-building over and above current local authority plans.”  The Airports Commission, said Heathrow expansion would create between 47,400 and 112,400 jobs by 2030, which in turn would require an extra 29,800 to 70,800 homes to be created in the surrounding area, including Windsor, Slough and London boroughs.  There will be a public meeting in  Windsor to discuss the Heathrow plans, before the consultation ends on 3rd February. Windsor already has an enormous housing problem in the area, and are having go consider building on green belt land (which is locally very unpopular), even with no new runway.   And there is increasing urbanisation …”The impact will be felt across the Thames Valley – it’s commercial greed gone mad.”

http://www.airportwatch.org.uk/2015/01/windsor-councillor-says-there-would-be-homes-turmoil-if-heathrow-is-expanded/

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Airports Commission estimates new homes needed for new runway – 18,400 at Gatwick; 70,800 at Heathrow (maybe more)

The Airports Commission estimates that a 3rd Heathrow runway could require up to 70,800 homes to be built locally to support the additional jobs created by the development.  The Commission estimates a Gatwick 2nd  runway could require up to 18,400 homes to be delivered across 14 local authorities, and it said this could be done up to 2030, with “land availability unlikely to be affected by green belt issues”.  (Estimate of 30,000 – 45,000 homes by W Sussex County Council + Gatwick Diamond). More houses would be needed for Heathrow expansion than Gatwick expansion, due to more additional business activity following a runway at Heathrow than at Gatwick, and more from the airport’s north-west runway plan (up to 70,800), than the Heathrow Hub idea of extending the northern runway (up to 60,600).  The Commission acknowledges that these upper limits may present challenges for local authorities, outlining that “many… already struggle to meet housing targets”. The only relief would be that the homes could be delivered over a number of years, and the pain would be shared between many authorities. However, Green Belt would be seriously threatened – not to mention urban cramming and loss of village character.

http://www.airportwatch.org.uk/2014/11/airports-commission-estimates-new-homes-needed-for-new-runway-18400-at-gatwick-70800-at-heathrow-maybe-more/

 


 

Heathrow runway would mean loss of at least 431 hectares of Green Belt – and more in future

The CPRE (Campaign to Protect Rural England) believes the Airports Commission’s terms of reference were flawed, and therefore so is its recommendation of a Heathrow runway. Looking at the Heathrow north west runway option, CPRE say it would  destroy up to 694 hectares of Green Belt (one  AC report says 694, another says 431 hectares).  It would destroy 60 hectares of woodland. The runway would also wreck tranquillity in parks and gardens with impacts likely to spread into the Chilterns AONB. It would mean destroying 783 homes, and require up to 70,800 new homes to be built by 2030.  In addition, the Commission said in November 2014: “The land take associated with the additional housing demand may require some de-designation of areas of the Green Belt, although the London Plan’s encouragement of high density housing and brownfield redevelopment may reduce this.”  More houses may need to be built after 2030, and this would be in an area that already has acute housing pressure. CPRE considered that the formation of the Airports Commission, and its terms of reference, prevented a more ambitious regional rebalancing strategy. Instead the UK needs to boost the northern regions, avoid further over-heating the South East and make the most of the ample spare capacity in other airports.

http://www.airportwatch.org.uk/2015/10/heathrow-runway-would-mean-loss-of-at-least-431-hectares-of-green-belt-and-more-in-future/

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