Pew report finds reductions in aviation GHG emissions over business-as-usual projections could be halved

18.1.2010   (GreenAir online)

Under business-as-usual (BAU) forecasts, CO2 emissions from global aviation are
estimated to grow 3.1% per year over the next 40 years, resulting in a 300% increase
in emissions by 2050 compared to 2007. However, a new report published by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change finds that reductions of
more than 50% below the projected levels are possible.
 
[Praise the Lord:   that just means a 150% rise in aviation emissions by 2050
then.   Allelujah.   We are all saved then……..]
They are not even comparing with 1990 levels, nor even 2005.
 
Reality check warning!
 
The report, which looks at both the aviation and marine transportation sectors,
presents a range of near, medium and long term mitigation options. For the near
to medium term (to 2025), improvements in operational efficiency – for example
advanced navigation and air traffic management systems for aviation – have the
potential to reduce GHG emissions by about 5% below BAU projections, with advanced
propulsion systems and new airframe designs further reducing emissions by up to
35% over the longer term (to 2050).
 
Reducing the carbon intensity of the energy sources used in aviation and marine
transportation by transitioning to alternative fuels could also reduce emissions over the medium term, although the level of potential
reductions is uncertain, say the report’s authors David McCollum and Gregory Gould of the University of California at Davis and David Greene from Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
 
"While numerous technical challenges still exist, the main challenge to the use of alternative fuels will be the ability of aviation
and shipping to compete with other transportation subsectors for a potentially
limited supply of low-carbon biofuels
," they suggest. "This could particularly be an issue with marine shipping, where
the industry currently consumes the lowest-cost fuels available, namely residual
fuel oil."
 
The report presents an introduction to aviation and marine transportation and
a discussion of the determinants of GHG emissions from transportation; provides
an overview of the current emissions, trends and growth projections; explains
the technological mitigation options and potential GHG emission reductions; and
discusses policy options at both the domestic and international level to achieve
deep and durable reductions in emissions.
 
Beyond technical measures, reducing the demand for aviation and shipping could
achieve GHG reductions, though the potential impacts are probably limited, says
the report.
        [sic]  [????]       "The challenge for these subsectors is that there are few suitable alternatives
for the services provided by aviation and marine shipping. High-speed rail could
replace some passenger air travel, but currently there are few alternatives to
marine shipping.
 
"With only modest cost increases likely to be achievable through policy intervention,and
a limited number of alternatives, a large reduction in demand compared to BAU
seems unlikely from these subsectors," it concludes.
 
Aviation and marine transportation combined are responsible for around 5% of
total GHG emissions in the United States and 3% globally, say the authors.
 
Commenting on the findings, Eileen Claussen, President of the Pew Center and
former US Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and International Environmental
and Scientific Affairs, said: "Aviation and marine shipping are two of the fastest
growing modes of transportation. Their greenhouse gas emissions are growing rapidly
as well. To protect the climate, we need to reduce emissions across the entire
economy. Aviation and marine shipping are part of the climate problem, and this
report shows that they can be part of the solution."
 

http://www.greenaironline.com/news.php?viewStory=723

 

Link:
Pew Center report: ‘Aviation and Marine Transportation: GHG Mitigation Potential
and Challenges’

Aviation and Marine Transportation: GHG Mitigation Potential and Challenges

December 2009

BY:

David McCollum

Gregory Gould

David Greene

Combined, aviation and marine transportation are responsible for approximately
5% of total greenhouse (GHG) emissions in the United States and 3% globally and
are among the fastest growing modes in the transportation sector.

Controlling the growth in these emissions will be an important part of reducing
emissions from the transportation sector. A range of near-, medium- and long-term
mitigation options are available to slow the growth of energy consumption and
GHG emissions from aviation and marine shipping.

Implementation of these options could result in reductions of more than 50 %
below BAU levels by 2050 from global aviation and more than 60% for global marine
shipping.

For these reductions to be realized, however, international and domestic policy
intervention is required.  Developing an effective path forward that facilitates
the adoption of meaningful policies remains both a challenge and an opportunity.

"Aviation and Marine Transportation: GHG Mitigation Potential and Challenges"
presents an introduction to aviation and marine transportation and a discussion
of the determinants of GHG emissions from transportation; gives overview of current
emissions and trends and growth projections; explains the technological mitigation
options and potential GHG emission reductions; and discusses policy options at
both the domestic and international level to achieve deep and durable reductions
in emissions.

Press Release

Download the report (pdf)