Airports Commission has published 4 sets of airport level passenger forecasts 2011 to 2050

Date added: 20 January, 2014

The Airports Commission is basing its advice to the government, that a new runway is needed over coming decades (not in the short term) on future passenger forecasts. In its Interim Report, on 17th December, the Commission set out its thinking on forecasts, with and without more runway capacity (no new runways, or one or two more) both with current theoretical constraints like the EU Emissions Trading System, and with more stringent controls to actually attempt to limit UK aviation emissions to their 2005 level, by 2050 – though allowing them to rise higher than that level in the interim.  The Commission has now released its forecasts for its 4 scenarios, a matrix of carbon traded and carbon capped, with capacity constrained by no new runway, and with a new runway. They have also published estimates for Paris, Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Schiphol airports, from 2011 to 2050. At the extremes the forecasts range from UK air passengers by 2050 being between 178% to 199%  higher in 2050 than in 2013. The figures range, for Heathrow, from passengers being 127% to 195% higher in 2050 than in 2013. For Gatwick the forecasts range from 136% to 153% higher in 2050 than in 2013. 
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The Airports Commission’s Interim Report (December 2013) is at 

Airports Commission: interim report

PDF, 4.41MB, 228 pages

On their four scenarios the interim report says:

How the model has been used

4.9 The Commission has used the updated model to develop four core forecasts:

1) Carbon traded, capacity unconstrained.   (ie. ETS with new runway)

This represents total potential demand for UK aviation, in the absence of any constraints on airport capacity or on aviation emissions. It assumes that aviation continues to participate in existing emissions trading schemes, such as the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS),
so passengers face a carbon cost, but no specific emissions level is targeted. It is broadly equivalent to the DfT’s unconstrained demand forecast.

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2) Carbon traded, capacity constrained.  (ie. ETS with no new runway)

This is the same as the first forecast, except that it assumes that existing constraints on UK airport capacity persist throughout the forecast period. The difference between this forecast and the first allows the Commission to estimate the scale of unmet demand at national,
regional and airport level, and the rate at which airports would fill up in the absence of any limit on carbon emissions. This forecast is broadly equivalent to the DfT constrained forecast.

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3) Carbon capped, capacity unconstrained.  (ie. higher carbon cost with new runway)

This represents the level of aviation demand consistent with the CCC’s [Committee on Climate Change’s] current assessment of how UK climate targets can be met. It includes a higher modelled carbon price, which ensures that forecast emissions return to 2005 levels by 2050, but assumes no constraints on airport capacity. It is broadly equivalent to the CCC’s ‘likely’ scenario, set out in its 2009 report “Meeting the UK aviation target – options for reducing emissions to 2050”.

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4) Carbon capped, capacity constrained. (ie. higher carbon cost without new runway)

This forecast assumes both a higher modelled carbon price, as in (3), and the continuation of existing constraints on UK airport capacity, as in (2). It allows the Commission to estimate how existing airport capacity would be used if further policies were introduced to return aviation emissions to 2005 levels by 2050.

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On 20th January 2014 the Commission issued information on its forecasts.

Airports Commission: airport level passenger forecasts 2011 to 2050

The date in spreadsheets are at

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/airports-commission-airport-level-passenger-forecasts-2011-to-2050

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The tables below are simplified (by AirportWatch) versions of the much larger documents on the  Airports Commission website).

1) Carbon traded, capacity unconstrained.                                       (ie. ETS with new runway)

This represents total potential demand for UK aviation, in the absence of any constraints on airport capacity or on aviation emissions. It assumes that aviation continues to participate in existing emissions trading schemes, such as the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS),
so passengers face a carbon cost, but no specific emissions level is targeted. It is broadly equivalent to the DfT’s unconstrained demand forecast.

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2) Carbon traded, capacity constrained.                                              (ie. ETS with no new runway)

This is the same as the first forecast, except that it assumes that existing constraints on UK airport capacity persist throughout the forecast period. The difference between this forecast and the first allows the Commission to estimate the scale of unmet demand at national,
regional and airport level, and the rate at which airports would fill up in the absence of any limit on carbon emissions. This forecast is broadly equivalent to the DfT constrained forecast.

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3)  Carbon capped, capacity  unconstrained

This represents the level of aviation demand consistent with the CCC’s [Committee on Climate Change’s] current assessment of how UK climate targets can be met. It includes a higher modelled carbon price, which ensures that forecast emissions return to 2005 levels by 2050, but assumes no constraints on airport capacity. It is broadly equivalent to the CCC’s ‘likely’ scenario, set out in its 2009 report “Meeting the UK aviation target – options for reducing emissions to 2050”.

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4) Carbon capped, capacity constrained.                                            (ie. higher carbon cost without new runway)

This forecast assumes both a higher modelled carbon price, as in (3), and the continuation of existing constraints on UK airport capacity, as in (2). It allows the Commission to estimate how existing airport capacity would be used if further policies were introduced to return aviation emissions to 2005 levels by 2050.

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Air passengers in 2005

(2005 is the year chosen for the 2050 target, for UK aviation emissions to return to this level. The CCC recommended that passengers may be able to rise by 60% from this level, and air transport movements rise by 55% from this level, and still (perhaps) keep within UK carbon targets. To allow aviation to not cut its carbon emissions from their 2005 level, all other sectors of the economy must cut their emissions by 85% of their 1990 level by 2050.

From CAA data at 

http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=80&pagetype=88&sglid=3&fld=2012Annual

Table 10.3

60% more passengers than the 2005 level of some 227.4 million would be an extra 132 million, taking the total by 2050 to 363 million approximately. That is the maximum permitted growth under the Committee on Climate Change advice to the UK government: 60% more passengers than in 2005 by 2050, and 55% more flights (presuming carbon savings made by then by the industry).

Posted: Monday, January 20th, 2014. Filed in General News, Recent News.