Committee on Climate Change progress report to government – aviation mentions
The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has published their progress report, for 2020, on the UK government’s efforts on reducing CO2 emissions. It has a lot to say on aviation – far more than in its 2019 progress report. They say that iInternational aviation and shipping (IAS) should be formally included in UK climate targets, in the carbon budgets, when the Sixth Carbon Budget is set, and net-zero plans should be developed. This has been a key demand, from environmental experts. At present aviation emissions are just taken account of. The CCC say that aviation accounts of 8% of the UK’s CO2 emissions (a briefing note in Feb 2020 for Parliament said it was 7% in 2019). The CCC also say that the UK’s airport capacity strategy should be reviewed in light of the country’s net-zero target. Due to the dramatic impact of Covid on the aviation sector, the CCC say a household & business survey is needed, of long-term travel expectations of the pandemic. They add that action is also needed on non-CO₂ warming effects from aviation, which probably account for double the climate impact of the CO2 alone, emitted at altitude. They say ICAO’s CORSIA scheme should be strengthened.
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These are copies of the text from the reports, where the word “aviation” is mentioned.
From the CCC’s
Reducing UK emissions: 2020 Progress Report to Parliament
25.6.2020 (The Committee on Climate Change)
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Extracts:
International aviation and shipping should be formally included in UK climate targets when the Sixth Carbon Budget is set, and net-zero plans should be developed.
‒ Aviation (8% of 2019 emissions). A policy framework is needed to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, including demand-side measures, efficiency and low-carbon fuels, with residual emissions offset by verifiable removals.
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The UK’s airport capacity strategy should be reviewed in light of the net-zero target. Action is also needed on non-CO₂ warming effects from aviation.
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Aviation and Shipping:
• Formally include International Aviation and Shipping emissions within UK climate targets when setting the Sixth Carbon Budget. •
Work with ICAO to set a long-term goal for aviation consistent with the Paris Agreement, and to strengthen the CORSIA scheme.
• Continue working with the IMO on global shipping policies, and updating their 2050 target. •
Commit to a Net Zero goal for UK aviation as part of the forthcoming aviation consultation and strategy, with UK international aviation reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 at the latest, and domestic aviation potentially earlier. Plan for residual emissions, after efficiency, low-carbon fuels and demand-side measures, to be offset by verifiable greenhouse gas removals.
• Build on the Clean Maritime Plan to develop incentives for zero-carbon ammonia and hydrogen supply chains for UK shipping.
• Monitor non-CO₂ impacts of aviation and shipping and consider how best to tackle them alongside UK climate targets.
• Review the UK’s airport capacity strategy in light of COVID-19 and Net Zero, including a household & business survey of long-term travel expectations.
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The Sixth Carbon Budget period covers 2033-2037. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are shown on a total (‘actual’) basis, while carbon budgets are assessed against the ‘net carbon account’ (Box 2.3). Emissions from International Aviation and Shipping (IAS) are not included in this figure, but would either also need to reach zero emissions by 2050 or will have to be fully offset by verifiable removals.
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Early 20s
Emissions removed from the atmosphere by trees, soils or engineered carbon removal to offset residual emissions in sectors where low-carbon alternatives are limited (predominantly aviation and agriculture – Figure 1.2).
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Mid 20s
Emissions removed from the atmosphere by trees, soils or engineered carbon removal to offset residual emissions in sectors where low-carbon alternatives are limited (predominantly aviation and agriculture – Figure 1.2).
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Greenhouse gas removals, second half of the 20s
Initial deployment of engineered greenhouse gas removals (e.g. BECCS in power generation, hydrogen production, industry and/or aviation fuel production), driven by incentives and enabled by CO₂ infrastructure development.
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- v) Aviation Aviation emissions fell in 2009 and 2010 after the financial crisis, then stayed relatively flat in the early 2010s, but have been rising again in recent years. UK aviation emissions in 2018 were therefore the same as in 2008, as falls in domestic and military aviation emissions have been balanced by a rise in UK international aviation emissions. Over the same 2008-2018 period, the total number of UK terminal passengers rose by 24% to reach 292 million in 2018, with a further 2% increase seen in 2019
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More broadly, low-carbon policy costs are not balanced across the economy – some sectors, such as aviation and shipping, may have to pass a greater degree of decarbonisation costs onto their end customers. International competitiveness in these sectors provides an additional challenge.
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Emissions from international aviation & shipping in 2019 are assumed to be equal to the final BEIS estimates for 2018.
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Aviation. Total aviation emissions increased by 0.8% from 2017 levels to 39.3 MtCO₂e in 2018. Within this, emissions from international flights increased by 1.1% to 36.7 Mt, emissions from domestic flights fell by 5.9% to 1.5 Mt, and emissions from military aviation fell 0.6% to 1.1 Mt. Overall, emissions from domestic and international aviation in 2018 were 124% above 1990 levels.
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viii) Aviation There are currently no indicators established for aviation, and last year no policy milestones were set by the Committee for 2019-20.
However, there have been a number of UK developments:
• The ‘Future of Flight Challenge’ was announced in August 2019. Funding of £125 million will be provided via the Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund with £175 million from industry, to develop new aircraft technology including electrification.117
- DfT’s Aviation & Climate Change Consultation was due out in early 2020, but is currently delayed due to COVID-19. A final Aviation Strategy is due to follow. • In February 2020, the Court of Appeal ruled the Airports National Policy Statement (ANPS) underpinning expansion at Heathrow airport unlawful due to a failure to consider the Paris Agreement, non-CO₂ impacts and emissions after 2050. This verdict is being appealed in the Supreme Court. Indicators for aviation will be developed following our advice on the Sixth Carbon Budget later this year. (December)
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Via the Sustainable Aviation grouping, the UK’s aviation sector has committed to achieving net-zero CO₂ emissions by 2050. Their roadmap has high demand growth mitigated by large improvements in efficiency, uptake of sustainable aviation fuels and significant use of market based measures (offsets and removals).135
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The proposed UK ETS covers emissions from the power sector, large industrial facilities, domestic aviation and flights to Europe. In principle the scope of the scheme could be extended to include nearly all UK GHG emissions.
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Though decarbonising aviation and shipping are longer-term priorities, action now is required. The Government should:
• Continue to work via the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and International Maritime Organisation (IMO) to reduce International Aviation and Shipping (IAS) emissions, setting ambitious long-term goals and developing robust mechanisms to achieve these.
• Formally include IAS emissions within the UK’s climate targets as set out in our September 2019 letter.20 https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Letter-from-Lord-Deben-to-Grant-Shapps-IAS.pdf
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Our Sixth Carbon Budget advice will again consider and make recommendations as to the inclusion of IAS emissions within UK Carbon Budgets.
- Building on the UK’s Clean Maritime Plan, develop incentives for new low-carbon ammonia and hydrogen supply chains and accompanying port infrastructure, with the UK’s first clean maritime cluster built by 2030.
- • Commit to an ambitious Net Zero goal for UK aviation in the forthcoming Aviation & Climate Change Consultation, with UK international aviation reaching net-zero by 2050, and domestic aviation potentially before 2050. Efficiency and low-carbon fuel measures should be supported, with demand-side policies also introduced to ensure emissions stay on track to net-zero given the availability of verifiable GHG removals.
- • Monitor non-CO2 impacts of aviation and shipping and consider how best to tackle them alongside UK climate targets.
- • Review the UK’s airport capacity strategy in light of COVID-19 and the Net Zero transition. This should include a survey of UK households, businesses and public-sector organisations to gauge how leisure and business travel expectations have changed post-COVID, and the likely permanence of these changes.
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9 December 2020
Advice on the Sixth Carbon Budget
The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) will publish its recommendation on the level of the Sixth Carbon Budget in December 2020. The Sixth Carbon Budget, required under the Climate Change Act, will provide ministers with advice on the volume of greenhouse gases the UK can emit during the period 2033-2037.
It will set the path to the UK’s new net-zero emissions target in 2050, as the first carbon budget to be set into law following that commitment
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From the CCC’s
Reducing UK emissions 2019 Progress Report to Parliament
July 2019
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https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/CCC-2019-Progress-in-reducing-UK-emissions.pdf
2019 report
Emissions across the economy (including international aviation and shipping) fell 40% from 1990 to 2018. Over the same period, the UK economy grew by 75%. In 2018 emissions fell 2% and the economy grew by 1%. This record of growing the economy and cutting emissions provides a powerful international example that can help encourage others to increase their own ambition.
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priorities for 2020
Formal inclusion in Climate Change Act targets
2 Formally, international aviation and shipping are not included in the carbon budgets. However, the budgets are set lower in order to leave ‘headroom’ for these emissions, consistent with their eventual inclusion in the 2050 target.
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6 Emissions for non-CO2 emissions, and international aviation and shipping (IAS) is only available for 2017. The 2018 non-CO2 emissions have been estimated by adjusting the 2017 non-CO2 emissions total in the 1990-2017 greenhouse gas inventory in proportion to the percentage difference between the estimates for the 2017 and 2018 non-CO2 emissions in the most recent Energy and Emissions Projections published by BEIS. Emissions from IAS are assumed to be the same as in 2017.
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Aviation. Total aviation emissions increased by 3.5% to 36.5 MtCO₂e from 2016 to 2017, the latest year for which data is available. Within this, emissions from international flights increased by 3.6% to 35.0 Mt and emissions from domestic flights by 2.6% to 1.5 Mt. Overall, emissions from aviation in 2017 were more than double 1990 levels.
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Carbon markets. The UK was an advocate for strong rules on ‘additionality’ and ‘no double counting’ in the eligibility guidelines for the CORSIA offsetting scheme for the aviation industry, published in March 2019. The UK should continue to support the highest possible standards for market-based mechanisms under the Paris Agreement at COP25 and beyond.
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The Government launched a consultation in December 2018 on its long-term vision for aviation. Within this, it accepted the Committee’s long-standing planning assumption that for an economy-wide target of an 80% emissions reduction, aviation emissions in 2050 should be no higher than those in 2005 (i.e. 37.5 MtCO₂e). However, the final Aviation Strategy has not yet been published and the Government has not set out the implications of limiting emissions for aviation demand.
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Publish a plan to limit UK aviation emissions to the level assumed when the fifth carbon budget was set (i.e. around 2005 levels in 2050, implying around a 60% potential increase in demand), supported by strong international policies.
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