Government puts up, then almost instantly withdraws, document showing need for behaviour change to cut carbon emissions
Published with the government’s decarbonisation, net zero, strategy on 20th October, was a document called “Net Zero: principles for successful behaviour change initiatives”. It was produced for BEIS, by the Behavioural Insights Team (aka the Nudge unit). It contained many suggestions for ways the public’s behaviour could be “nudged” to help lower carbon emissions. But the document was only on the BEIS website for an hour or two, before being withdrawn. Luckily one sharp-eyed and quick-witted aviation campaigner spotted it and saved a copy. The document suggests ways in which behaviour could be changed – while the government, and Boris himself, claims behaviour change will not be needed, and we will all be able to fly, guilt free, in future. BEIS says it does not wish to suggest behaviour change. The behaviour change paper said, of business aviation, that there needs to be a change in social norms, to international in-person meetings no longer seen as a sign of importance or pride, but “being an immoral indulgence or embarrassment.” It also says government should lead by example, in not backing airport expansion for financially supporting the airline industry with little demands for decarbonisation in return.
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The Government’s Net Zero Strategy: Build Back Greener
This strategy sets out policies and proposals for decarbonising all sectors of the UK economy to meet our net zero target by 2050.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/net-zero-strategy
This says (Page 153) on aviation, the UK will:
• “Become a leader in zero-emission flight, kick-starting commercialisation of UK
sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), and developing a UK SAF mandate, to enable the
delivery of 10% SAF by 2030, and we will be supporting UK industry with a £180m
funding to support the development of SAF plants.”
aviation was developed using projections from the TDP and the Jet Zero Consultation.
This uses the same Aviation model and assumptions as used for the domestic aviation
projections. The DfT’s Aviation model is an established suite of interrelated components
used to produce forecasts for aviation demand at the national level, and the associated
passenger numbers, aircrafts and CO2 emissions from flights departing from UK airports.
Three abatement measures are considered within the modelling; system efficiencies,
sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), and zero emission aircraft.
Aviation section from
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-NhoheMrPtvm6Cf42LKPNZvCaeJFphrh/view
“Net Zero: principles for successful behaviour change initiatives”
Key principles from past government-led behaviour change and public engagement initiatives
BEIS Research Paper Number 2021/063
October 2021
By the Behavioural Insights Team
This report has been produced by the Behavioural Insights Team, and was commissioned by the Department for Businesses, Energy and Industrial Strategy. Any views expressed within it are not necessarily the views of the UK government, nor does this work reflect UK government policy.
Authors
In alphabetical order: Kristina Londakova, Toby Park, Jake Reynolds, Saul Wodak.
4.3 Aviation
The aviation sector currently produces 2.5% of global emissions,105 but is a high-impact activity among those who do fly regularly (with the UK population being far above the global average), and the sector is estimated to grow 700% by 2050.106 As such, developing interventions to reduce the environmental impact of aviation is critical, both through a technological and behavioural lens. In the UK, the CCC allow for a modest growth of the aviation sector, but below that expected with no intervention.
Behavioural assessment
For the most part, individuals’ flying behaviour is likely to be quite inelastic – expecting the British public to forego holidays abroad would be an enormous political challenge. We believe a more realistic transition to Net Zero is therefore through a combination of reduced demand in some select sectors (mainly frequent business flyers, with some potential to also promote domestic tourism), increased carbon offsetting elsewhere, and leveraging marginal behavioural changes to incentivise upstream improvements among airline operators and manufacturers (including long-term deployment of low/zero-emission technologies).
Upstream: Align businesses, markets and institutions
- Similar to other sectors, de-shrouding the carbon emissions of different airlines and routes (i.e. through environmental impact ratings on operators, or emissions information on booking sites) could leverage marginal shifts in behaviour to drive competition among operators to decarbonise. On the one hand, this mechanism may be somewhat less effective than some other sectors if consumer choices are relatively inelastic (i.e. I want to go to Bangkok, Madrid isn’t a viable substitute, and there are limited options with price being the overwhelming decision factor). On the other hand, available data suggest there is often a large difference in emissions between operators on the same route due to operational practices, aircraft type and age, and utilisation rates.
In any case, it will be important to create a market signal (e.g. label) which is as salient and impactful as it can be to achieve the necessary upstream incentives for firms to improve.
- Direct incentives on operators, i.e. much stronger carbon taxes with steeper differentiation between airlines’ performance (to reward incremental decarbonisation efforts), may therefore be more effective in incentivising airlines to use more efficient aircraft, not over-fuel,107 not under-seat, or forego basic mechanical efficiencies. This may also accelerate R&D into alternative fuels.
- The UK government can lead by example, and recognise the hugely impactful signal it sends to, for example, approve airport expansions, or financially support the airline industry with little demands for decarbonisation in return.
Midstream: Create an enabling environment
- Though costly, a major aspect of the transport ‘choice environment’ is limited infrastructure and limited viable substitutes. Major investment in long-distance, high speed, lower-cost train travel would make low-carbon travel choices easier for holidaymakers.
- Passengers can be defaulted into carbon offsets.
- Disincentives may be effective, though in order maintain fairness, should be targeted at frequent business flights where there is already a viable substitute (teleconferencing) for many if not all business needs. Success here may ultimately be marked by a shift in social norms, from international in-person meetings being a sign of importance, to being an immoral indulgence or embarrassment (‘frequent flyer’ should not be a badge of pride).
Downstream: Encourage citizens to take direct action where they can, and build support
- There will be limited political space to directly ask the public to fly less in the short-term. One approach may be to promote more domestic tourism – maintaining a positive message around the appeal of doing so, rather than admonishment for flying.
105 https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions-from-aviation
106www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/07/if-airlines-were-a-country-theyd-be-one-of-the-worlds-top-10-greenhouse-gas-emitters/#:~:text=Producing%20around%202%20percent%20of,300%2D700%25%20by%202050
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The interventions needed to alter behaviour:
Upstream:
Upstream: ‘Redirect the flow’
Align businesses, markets and institutions with Net Zero
1 – Incentivise businesses to provide low-carbon options
2 – Align market competition with Net Zero
3 – Lead by example
===
Midstream:
Midstream: ‘The back-eddy’. Create an enabling environment
4 – Make it the default where possible
5 – Make it easy
– remove hassle
– provide easy substitutes
– get the timing right
6 – Leverage social norms & visibility
7 – Make it affordable
===
Downstream:
Downstream: ‘Swim harder!’
Encourage citizens to take direct action where they can, and build public support
8 – Build a positive and fair narrative around co-benefits, and clear asks
9 – Build public support, but don’t underestimate our ability to adapt
===
How?
Sound policy-making for Net Zero
- Build policy on evidence
- Implementation, Implementation, Implementation
- Beware of unintended consequences
- Think big and small – bold action and detail
- Collaborate. Government doesn’t hold all the levers for societal change
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UK meat tax and frequent-flyer levy proposals briefly published then deleted
Government ‘nudge unit’ document published alongside net zero strategy before being withdrawn within hours
The report raises concerns over the expansion of airports contained in government policy and the tax exemptions given to the aviation sector.
By Sandra Laville (The Guardian)
Wed 20 Oct 2021
A blueprint to change public behaviour to cut carbon emissions, including levies on high-carbon food and a reduction in frequent flying, was published by the government alongside its net zero strategy on Tuesday but was withdrawn within a few hours.
Recommendations in the blueprint are in contrast to Boris Johnson’s promise in the strategy foreword that transitioning to net zero could happen without sacrificing the things we love. “This strategy shows how we can build back greener, without so much as a hair shirt in sight,” the foreword stated.
Boris: “In 2050 we will still be driving cars, flying planes and heating our homes, but our cars will be electric, gliding silently around our cities, our planes will be zero emission, allowing us to fly guilt-free, and our homes will be heated by cheap, reliable power drawn from the winds of the North Sea.”
[In the Net Zero: principles for successful behaviour change initiatives document, it says, of business flying – when there are electronic means of meeting:
- “Success here may ultimately be marked by a shift in social norms, from international in-person meetings being a sign of importance, to being an immoral indulgence or embarrassment (‘frequent flyer’ should not be a badge of pride). ” ]
The blueprint, however, emphasises that tackling the climate crisis requires “significant behavioural change”. According to the document, titled Net Zero: principles for successful behaviour change initiatives, and produced by the behavioural insights team, or “nudge unit”, the British public may have to reduce its demand for high-carbon activities such as flying and eating ruminant meat, among other changes.
The report raises concerns over the expansion of airports contained in government policy and tax exemptions given to the aviation sector. “The UK government can lead by example, and recognise the hugely impactful signal it sends to, for example, approve airport expansions, or financially support the airline industry with little demands for decarbonisation in return,” the removed report states. It says a more realistic transition to net zero would be through tactics including reducing the number of frequent business flyers.
The report outlines nine key principles needed to change public behaviour to meet net zero. These include making clear to people what changes they have to make, making those changes easy and affordable, and aligning commercial interests with net zero outcomes.
It recommends tax and statutory interventions to force change, including carbon taxes, a financial levy on food with a high-emission footprint, using the law to force the public to change, and forcing the markets to be more transparent to enable consumers to choose more sustainable options.
“Laws … matter and can powerfully cement emerging shifts in normative values,” the report says. “Looking at past government-led initiatives, significant societal behaviour changes related to, for instance, reductions in harm from smoking, increasing worker or motor vehicle safety or uptake of vaccinations have all involved taxes, bans, mandates and other regulatory measures beyond soft persuasion.
“We do not have time to nudge our way to net zero, and so a focus on building sufficient political capital and public support to instigate bolder action will be needed.”
Behavioural change will be vital if we are to reach net zero, according to the Climate Change Committee, which pointed out in its sixth carbon budget that about 60% of the emissions savings that need to be made over the next 15 years will come from a combination of behaviour and technology.
The issue is a difficult one for the Conservatives, who fear that many of their supporters will resist anything too top-down, such as a meat tax or a levy on frequent flyers.
Dr Alex Chapman, a senior researcher at the New Economics Foundation, said the government had not included any mention of aviation in its strategy, and government analysis found the strategy would lead to no material reduction in air travel emissions between now and 2037.
“At the heart of this is the government’s refusal to accept that we cannot continue to grow the size of the aviation sector in a climate emergency. Betting on the rollout of as-yet-undeveloped miracle technologies represents a huge gamble with our futures,” Chapman said.
“Now, with this hastily withdrawn research paper, we learn that the government is in fact well aware of this contradiction. Indeed … major concerns are raised about the ongoing expansion of UK airports and the current tax exemptions enjoyed by the aviation sector. It is time the government stopped living a delusion and took meaningful action to prevent aviation emissions driving us off a climate cliff.”
The report says that politicians and policymakers could suffer from “optimism/overconfidence bias – the more so, the more senior they are”.
It also says implementation of policies is everything. It says the government should push the message that it is following the science, as it has in the Covid-19 pandemic, and it calls for close cooperation with experts.
The report says changing behaviours requires a clear narrative from the government, which is not easy. “We must recognise that we are often asking people to swim against the current if the cheap, readily available, enjoyable, convenient, normal and default option is the unsustainable one.
“This is often the case: it’s hard to avoid plastic packaging when the shops are full of it; hard to drive an [electric vehicle] if you don’t have off-street parking to install a charge point; hard to take the train when the plane is cheaper and quicker; hard to give up red meat when our shops, restaurants and cultural norms are brimming with it.”
The document said it would be extremely important to ask for public behavioural change: acceptance of changes to policy and infrastructure; willingness to adopt new technologies; and direct individual action.
A government spokesperson said: “This was an academic research paper, not government policy. We have no plans whatsoever to dictate consumer behaviour in this way. For that reason, our net zero strategy published yesterday contained no such plans.”
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In-depth Q&A: The UK’s net-zero strategy
The UK government has published its long-awaited net-zero strategy setting out how it plans to meet the country’s legally binding climate goals out to 2050.
The 368-page strategy was published alongside a raft of other documents, including a 202-page heat and buildings strategy, a 135-page Treasury review of the costs of reaching net-zero and numerous other documents. In total, Carbon Brief counted 21 documents covering 1,868 pages.
In a foreword to the net-zero strategy, the prime minister Boris Johnson says meeting the UK’s targets is “the greatest opportunity for jobs and prosperity for our country since the industrial revolution”. The document itself adds that the science on the need to act “could not be clearer”.
With the publication of the strategy, the UK now has firm commitments or “ambitions” to end the sale of combustion-engine cars and vans by 2030, end gas boiler sales by 2035 and have a fully decarbonised power system by the same year.
… see more at https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-uks-net-zero-strategy
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