IATA now has aspirations for aviation to be trendy “net zero by 2050” while keeping on flying
IATA is now hoping it could achieve “net zero emissions by 2050”. Previously it had aspired to emitting only half as much carbon by 2050, as it did in 2005. Climate experts consider two problems with “net zero by 2050” : the net part, and the date. IATA hopes to get some technical efficiencies to cut carbon, but its real hope is finding fuels that cause the emission of far less carbon than fossil fuels, up to the moment they are burned in a jet engine. (These fuels will still produce most of the non-CO2 impacts at altitude, due to water vapour and other gas interactions). There are widely varying estimates of how much “low carbon” fuel – SAF or Sustainable Aviation Fuel in the jargon – will be available. The main hopes for producing it are forestry waste, domestic waste, or electro-fuels produced from “surplus” renewably generated electricity. No SAF can be produced and delivered to the plane, without creating some carbon emissions. So claiming any SAF is “zero carbon” is incorrect. If a plane burns 50% conventional jet fuel, and 50% of a fuel the production of which saved 65% of emissions, that plane will only produce 33% less carbon than if it burned only conventional kerosene. And being able to permanently store residual carbon, underground, for ever is highly questionable.
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IATA ANNOUNCES NET ZERO EMISSIONS BY 2050 TARGET FOR GLOBAL AIR TRANSPORT INDUSTRY
13th October, 2021 (AEF – Aviation Environment Federation)
The International Air Transport Association (IATA), which represents the world’s airlines, has announced its commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. This replaces its previous, long-standing commitment to cut 2005 levels of emissions by 50% by 2050.
With an increasing number of countries adopting goals of net emissions by 2050, IATA needed to show that the aviation sector is keeping up.
Their revised target comes as the UN’s aviation body ICAO prepares to adopt its own long-term climate goal for international aviation next year. While some scientists argue the goal of ‘net zero by 2050’ is not ambitious enough to ensure a safe climate, achieving it in aviation will be hugely challenging and will require some really fundamental changes.
According to IATA, if passenger numbers rise as forecast, the industry will need to abate 1,800 million tonnes of CO2 per annum by 2050. (For comparison, the industry emitted around 50% less – 914MtCO2 – in 2019.)
How does IATA plan to get there?
Alongside a small (3%) reduction arising from efficiency improvements, [compared to no efficiency improvements] IATA is hoping for significant carbon cuts from alternative fuels, new propulsion technologies, and carbon removals and offsets.
Sustainable aviation fuels
IATA’s plan to abate 65% of the sector’s carbon emissions through sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) goes beyond previous industry forecasts of what is possible and would require production to reach 449 billion litres globally by 2050.
The UK industry’s Sustainable Aviation initiative estimates that around 30% is a more realistic target.
The ‘SAF’ label is, meanwhile, a generalisation for a host of alternative fuels that range from biofuel to synthetic kerosene made from captured carbon and hydrogen using vast amounts of renewable power. Some of these are greener and more scalable than others.
We can’t rely on increasing amounts of waste to support a SAF strategy, for example, and some biofuels compete with food production. While the industry has been quick to rule out such feedstocks, there is a real concern that high targets will drive unsustainable production.
Finally, IATA’s estimates appear – wrongly – to conflate SAF use with emissions reduction, claiming that if 65% of the fuel used by 2050 is SAF this is equivalent to an emissions reduction of 65%.
Any emissions reduction from SAFs will be on a ‘net’ rather than an ‘actual’ basis, as the CO2 released once the fuel is burned will be as high as from kerosene, requiring careful analysis of how much CO2 has been effectively captured or avoided in advance. No SAFs yet in commercial production are able to deliver a 100% emissions saving.
New propulsion technology, such as hydrogen
13% of the sector’s emissions will be abated through new propulsion technology, such as hydrogen, according to IATA. The possibility of hydrogen aircraft operating commercial routes remains speculative however. Some manufacturers hope to have regional hydrogen aircraft operating from the mid 2030s (even optimistic forecasts do not anticipate the use of hydrogen planes for long haul journeys this side of 2050) but the extent to which this technology can be successfully rolled out will depend on factors including the availability of surplus green hydrogen and installing the necessary supporting infrastructure, in addition to successful development of the aircraft themselves.
Hydrogen will not necessarily, meanwhile, eliminate the industry’s non-CO2 impacts. The Paris Agreement is based on a temperature goal, so the sector should be addressing all of its climate impacts, not just those from its CO2 emissions. The latest scientific evidence concludes that, to date, only one third of aviation’s net contribution to warming comes from its CO2 emissions, with the remaining two thirds attributed to non-CO2 impacts, such as aircraft NOx and the formation of contrail cirrus.
Carbon capture and storage and offsets
Even with optimistic levels of SAF and in-sector emissions reductions, IATA admits that around 360Mt of CO2 emissions per annum in 2050 will still need to be offset or removed from the atmosphere. In fact, only removals are likely to be relevant by this date as all sectors will need to be achieving net zero, and carbon removal technologies are still in their infancy, and will require huge and expensive infrastructure.
Government support
IATA, recognising the scale of the challenge, is calling for government support and incentives. Unless governments also impose policies and measures that internalise the climate cost of flying, though, it’s not likely that we’ll see large-scale take-up of new technologies. The sector should be paying significantly higher carbon prices, potentially hundreds of dollars per tonne of CO2 in future. The global average at the end of 2020 was just $22 per tonne.
The industry is planning on meeting huge rises in passenger numbers in the hope that appropriate technologies will be available and affordable in future. Unless and until the barriers to rolling out these technologies can be overcome, we should be planning for less flying for net zero aviation to be even a possibility.
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The IATA press release:
https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2021-releases/2021-10-04-03/
Net-Zero Carbon Emissions by 2050
Translations:
Boston – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) 77th Annual General Meeting approved a resolution for the global air transport industry to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. This commitment will align with the Paris Agreement goal for global warming not to exceed 1.5°C.
“The world’s airlines have taken a momentous decision to ensure that flying is sustainable. The post-COVID-19 re-connect will be on a clear path towards net zero. That will ensure the freedom of future generations to sustainably explore, learn, trade, build markets, appreciate cultures and connect with people the world over. With the collective efforts of the entire value chain and supportive government policies, aviation will achieve net zero emissions by 2050,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Achieving net zero emissions will be a huge challenge. The aviation industry must progressively reduce its emissions while accommodating the growing demand of a world that is eager to fly. To be able to serve the needs of the ten billion people expected to fly in 2050, at least 1.8 gigatons of carbon must be abated in that year. Moreover, the net zero commitment implies that a cumulative total of 21.2 gigatons of carbon will be abated between now and 2050.
A key immediate enabler is the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). This will stabilize international emissions at 2019 levels in the short-to-medium term. Support for this was reaffirmed in today’s resolution.
Industry-wide Collective Efforts:
The path from stabilizing emissions to emissions reductions will require a collective effort. All industry stakeholders, including governments must each individually take responsibility to address the environmental impact of their policies, products, and activities. And they must work together to deliver sustainable connectivity and ultimately break aviation’s dependance on fossil fuels.
“Achieving sustainable global connectivity cannot be accomplished on the backs of airlines alone. All parts of the aviation industry must work together within a supportive government policy framework to deliver the massive changes that are needed, including an energy transition. That is no different than what we are seeing in other industries. Road transport sustainability efforts, for example, are not being advanced by drivers building electric vehicles. Governments are providing policies and financial incentives for infrastructure providers, manufacturers and car owners to be able to collectively make the changes needed for a sustainable future. The same should apply to aviation,” said Walsh.
The Plan
The strategy is to abate as much CO2 as possible from in-sector solutions such as sustainable aviation fuels, new aircraft technology, more efficient operations and infrastructure, and the development of new zero-emissions energy sources such as electric and hydrogen power. Any emissions that cannot be eliminated at source will be eliminated through out-of-sector options such as carbon capture and storage and credible offsetting schemes.
“We have a plan. The scale of the industry in 2050 will require the mitigation of 1.8 gigatons of carbon. A potential scenario is that 65% of this will be abated through sustainable aviation fuels. We would expect new propulsion technology, such as hydrogen, to take care of another 13%. And efficiency improvements will account for a further 3%. The remainder could be dealt with through carbon capture and storage (11%) and offsets (8%). The actual split, and the trajectory to get there, will depend on what solutions are the most cost-effective at any particular time. Whatever the ultimate path to net zero will be, it is absolutely true that the only way to get there will be with the value chain and governments playing their role,” said Walsh.
The resolution demands that all industry stakeholders commit to addressing the environmental impact of their policies, products, and activities with concrete actions and clear timelines, including:
- Fuel-producing companies bringing large scale, cost-competitive sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) to the market.
- Governments and air navigation service providers (ANSPs) eliminating inefficiencies in air traffic management and airspace infrastructure.
- Aircraft and engine manufacturers producing radically more efficient airframe and propulsion technologies; and
- Airport operators providing the needed infrastructure to supply SAF, at cost, and in a cost-effective manner.
The Role of Governments
The energy transition needed to achieve net zero must be supported by a holistic government policy framework focused on realizing cost-effective solutions. This is particularly true in the area of SAF. Technology exists, but production incentives are needed to increase supply and lower costs.
The resolution calls on governments through ICAO to agree a long-term goal equivalent to the industry’s net zero by 2050 commitment. In line with the longstanding approach to managing aviation’s climate change impact, the resolution also called for governments to support CORSIA, coordinate policy measures and avoid a patchwork of regional, national, or local measures.
“Governments must be active partners in achieving net zero by 2050. As with all other successful energy transitions, government policies have set the course and blazed a trail towards success. The costs and investment risks are too high otherwise. The focus must be on reducing carbon. Limiting flying with retrograde and punitive taxes would stifle investment and could limit flying to the wealthy. And we have never seen an environment tax actually fund carbon-reducing activities. Incentives are the proven way forward. They solve the problem, create jobs and grow prosperity,” said Walsh.
Milestones
The combination of measures needed to achieve net zero emissions for aviation by 2050 will evolve over the course of the commitment based on the most cost-efficient technology available at any particular point in time. A base case scenario as follows is the current focus:
- 2025: With appropriate government policy support, SAF production is expected to reach 7.9 billion liters (2% of total fuel requirement)
- 2030: SAF production is 23 billion liters (5.2% of total fuel requirement). ANSPs have fully implemented the ICAO Aviation System Block Upgrades and regional programs such as the Single European Sky
- 2035: SAF production is 91 billion liters (17% of total fuel requirement). Electric and/or hydrogen aircraft for the regional market (50-100 seats, 30-90 min flights) become available
- 2040: SAF production is 229 billion liters (39% of total fuel requirement). Hydrogen aircraft for the short-haul market (100-150 seats, 45-120 min flights) become available.
- 2045: SAF production is 346 billion liters (54% of total fuel requirement).
- 2050: SAF production hits 449 billion liters (65% of total fuel requirement).
“SAF will fuel the majority of aviation’s global emissions mitigation in 2050. The recently announced US Grand challenge to increase the supply of SAF to 11 billion liters (3 billion gallons) by 2030 is a great example of the kinds of policies that will drive aviation sustainability. Similarly, the announcements from several big energy suppliers that they intend to produce billions of extra liters of SAF in the near term are welcome. But we cannot tolerate announcements with no follow-up. To be meaningful, fuel suppliers must be accountable for delivering SAF at cost competitive prices.
“The way forward for all means of carbon mitigation will be scrutinized. We will match commitments to achievements in reporting that makes it clear how we are progressing. Engaging with travelers, environmental NGOs and governments based on transparent reporting will ensure that our flightpath to net zero is fully understood,” said Walsh.
Ambition
“There will be those who say that we face impossible numbers and technical challenges. Aviation has a history of realizing what was thought to be impossible—and doing so quickly. From the first commercial flight to the first commercial jet was about 35 years. And twenty years on we had the first jumbo jet. Sustainability is the challenge of our generation. And today we are launching a transition that is challenging. But in 30 years it is also within reach of human ingenuity, provided governments and the whole industry work together and hold each other accountable for delivery,” said Walsh.
https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2021-releases/2021-10-04-03/
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