Climate Change Committee stresses need to reduce demand for air travel
The Climate Change Committee (CCC), in its report following up the outcome of the COP26 talks, says that rolling out the Net Zero Strategy must lead to emissions falling in all sectors (i.e. going beyond recent progress dominated by the power sector). They say there is a gap on behaviour change (e.g. shifting diets away from meat and dairy and limiting aviation demand growth). That needs to be changed, in order to get emissions reductions. Reductions in aviation are especially important for the UK, as we have very high per person aviation emissions. The Committee has repeatedly stressed that an element of demand reduction for air travel is needed. The Government has repeatedly ignored that, knowing that anything restricting or make flying more expensive, is a vote-loser. The COP26 Glasgow Pact said there should be no “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies. The CCC has said that the absence of VAT or fuel duty on air travel are post-tax subsidies.
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COP26: Key outcomes and next steps for the UK
December 2021
By the Climate Change Committee
Some extracts from the report, relating to aviation:
Rolling out the Net Zero Strategy must lead to emissions falling in all sectors (i.e. going beyond recent progress dominated by the power sector). While we assessed the Strategy as strong overall, we identified the need for implementation to follow quickly and for clearer plans on agriculture policy. We also identified a gap on behaviour change (e.g. shifting diets away from meat and dairy and limiting aviation demand growth), which could provide a route to slightly greater emissions reductions.
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The First Movers Coalition was launched to enable companies looking to
use their collective purchasing power to pull to market new and emerging
low-carbon technologies and services in emissions-intensive sectors
including aviation, shipping, trucking and steel.
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However, there are a number of important issues that were not on the agenda at COP26 that nevertheless require concerted action to deliver Net Zero globally, particularly those associated with demand reduction and behaviour change:
• International aviation.
International aviation accounts for 2-3% of annual global GHG emissions, comparable to the emissions produced by countries within the top ten biggest global emitters.8 The climate impacts of aviation go far beyond its GHG emissions – contrails, NOx emissions and other factors that are outside of the Paris Agreement’s emissions accounting framework
(referred to as ‘non-CO2’ effects) will also result in warming impacts.9
• Car use.
Private cars and other passenger road vehicles account for 45% of worldwide transport emissions, and these emissions have risen considerably over recent decades. To reverse this, support for active travel and public and shared transport will be needed alongside the transition to zero-emission vehicles. This can deliver emissions reductions sooner than the
uptake of zero-emission vehicles alone and would also offer a range of co-benefits, including better air quality, reduced congestion and improved public health.
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• Leading on developing a Net Zero framework and pathway for aviation given the
UK’s high per person aviation emissions.
The UK NDC involves a larger reduction in CO2 emissions (around a 55% reduction from 2010 to 2030, excluding international aviation in line with UN convention) than global scenarios consistent with 1.5°C (-45% from 2010 to 2030) and involves earlier, faster deployment of low-carbon solutions than those scenarios
Rolling out the Net Zero Strategy must lead to emissions falling in all sectors (i.e. going beyond recent progress dominated by the power sector). While we assessed the Strategy as strong overall, we identified the need for implementation to follow quickly and for clearer plans on agriculture policy. We also identified a gap on behaviour change (e.g. shifting diets away from meat and dairy and limiting aviation demand growth), which could provide a route to slightly greater emissions reductions.
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The UK 2035 NDC must be submitted by 2025. The Sixth Carbon Budget is expected to be the basis, which implies a 78% reduction in emissions from 1990 to 2035 (including emissions from international aviation and shipping, it implies an 82% reduction excluding these sectors, as is UN convention). The budget is intended to be met entirely through UK domestic action, without international carbon credits.
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‘Post-tax’ subsidies, a concept put forward by the International Monetary Fund, count any failure to fully factor in the costs of fossil fuels (including their impact on climate change) as a subsidy.29 By this definition, reduced VAT and the lack of a carbon price on gas and other fossil fuels used for heating buildings, and the lack of VAT or a carbon price on aviation fuel are all post-tax subsidies.
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If the tax system is to support the transition as it should, a higher and more consistent carbon price across the economy will be needed, which would also remove post-tax subsidies. The UK Government is taking steps which will address some of these de-facto subsidies. These
include a commitment to review the imbalance between gas and electricity prices, set out in the Heat and Buildings Strategy, and plans to review the scope of the UK Emissions Trading Scheme to potentially expand the reach of carbon pricing across more sectors of the economy.
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So far, the UK has set emissions targets based on advice from the Committee. In 2019 we recommended setting a Net Zero target for 2050 that covered all greenhouse gases and all sectors (including international aviation and shipping), to be met without recourse to use of international credits. Last year we proposed a path to the Net Zero target that was the basis for the UK’s 2030 NDC to reduce emissions by 68% from 1990, and the Sixth Carbon Budget requiring a 78% reduction from 1990 to 2035.
Non-CO2 effects from aviation are complex and large uncertainties persist, but best-estimates suggest that these currently represent the majority of global aviation’s impact on the climate. Lee, D. et al. (2020) The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018. Atmospheric Environment, 244, 117834.
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See also
Climate Change Committee says there needs to be a reinvigorated UK effort on climate change
The Climate Change Committee says how far Glasgow can be considered a success can only be assessed by the actions that follow over the coming year and beyond. There is now a path to expected global warming of under 2°C, but only if all the ambition in new mid-century Net Zero targets is delivered, alongside national 2030 emissions targets. Current climate policies around the world do not come close to achieving these aims. For the UK it says “The Glasgow Climate Pact makes notable reference to ‘phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies’. The UK has a duty to act on this in common with other countries. The CCC recommends that the Treasury initiates a review of the role of the tax system in delivering Net Zero, including the role of tax in achieving a higher and more consistent carbon price across the economy. Low carbon prices are effectively a subsidy. No fossil fuel subsidies should be classed as ‘efficient’.” The CCC did not mention it, but the absence of any fuel tax on jet fuel, and no VAT on air travel, and effectively a subsidy to air travel. The CCC has repeatedly said that air travel should not be expanded unless there is effective progress on cutting aviation carbon emissions. Demand for air travel must be reduced.
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See earlier:
Climate Change Committee progress report to UK Government – aviation carbon policies sadly lacking
The Climate Change Committee has published its 2021 Progress Report to parliament, on the UK’s actions on climate change. It says “The Prime Minister’s Ten-Point Plan was an important statement of ambition, but it has yet to be backed with firm policies.” The report says the government has still not produced its Decarbonisation Strategy, which had been due in 2020. The CCC says government should “Commit to a Net Zero goal and pathway for UK aviation as part of the forthcoming Aviation Decarbonisation Strategy, with UK international aviation reaching Net Zero emissions by 2050 at the latest, and domestic aviation potentially earlier.” It says government should assess its “airport capacity strategy in the context of Net Zero and any lasting impacts on demand from COVID-19, as part of the aviation strategy. There should be no net expansion of UK airport capacity unless the sector is on track to sufficiently outperform its net emissions trajectory and can accommodate the additional demand. A demand management framework will need to be developed (by 2022) and be in place by the mid-2020s to annually assess and, if required, control sector GHG emissions and non-CO2 effects.” Lack of demand management would mean the sector missing its targets. And more …
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Climate Change Committee – recommendations to government – lots on aviation carbon changes and policies needed
Climate Change Committee has published its guidance for the UK government on its Sixth Carbon Budget, for the period 2033 – 37, and how to reach net-zero by 2050. There is a great deal of detail, many documents, many recommendations – with plenty on aviation. The intention is for UK aviation to be net-zero by 2050, though the CCC note there are not yet proper aviation policies by the UK government to achieve this. International aviation must be included in the Sixth Carbon budget. If the overall aviation CO2 emissions can be reduced enough, it might be possible to have 25% more air passengers in 2050 than in 2018. The amount of low-carbon fuels has been increased from the CCC’s earlier maximum realistic estimates of 5-10%, up to perhaps 25% by 2050, with “just over two-thirds of this coming from biofuels and the remainder from carbon-neutral synthetic jet fuel …” Residual CO2 emissions will need to be removed from the air, and international carbon offsets are not permitted. There is an assumption of 1.4% efficiency improvement per year, or at the most 2.1%. There “should be no net expansion of UK airport capacity unless the sector is on track to sufficiently outperform its net emissions trajectory.” The role of non-CO2 is recognised, but not included in carbon budgets; its heating effect must not increase after 2050. And lots more …
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• There should be no net expansion of UK airport capacity unless the sector is on track to sufficiently outperform its net emissions trajectory and can accommodate the additional demand.
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Demand management. A reduction in the annual number of passengers versus a counterfactual with unlimited passenger demand growth. Demand management policies could take several forms, either reducing passenger demand for flying through carbon pricing, a frequent flyer levy, fuel duty, VAT or reforms to Air Passenger Duty, and/or restricting the availability of flights through management of airport capacity. Page 260
https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/The-Sixth-Carbon-Budget-Methodology-Report.pdf
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