Research paper from Chatham house suggests way to fairly reduce air travel demand
A new research paper, from Chatham House, sets out how UK demand for air travel could be managed, and reduced to a level that might be compatible with climate targets. At the current level of air travel demand (that the government is unwilling to challenge) the aviation sector will far exceed its target emissions, out to 2050. The Chatham house paper suggests that “in the UK the top 20% of earners fly 5 times more often than the poorest 20%. It may be possible to achieve a 36% reduction in demand by 2030 if a future demand-management policy shifted behaviour so that most people who currently take more than one return flight per year reduced that number by one return flight and took no more than 4. This would leave the 77% of the UK population who currently take no more than one return flight unaffected. This is a moderate level of behaviour change… affecting only a small proportion of people with a high consumption of flights. Under the frequent flyer levy proposal, produced by the New Economics Foundation and climate charity Possible in 2021, leisure passengers would be charged no frequent flyer levy on their first return flight, increasing to an indicative figure of £585 on their 10th flight of the year.
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Net zero and the role of the aviation industry
How flying less frequently and less far can buy time for decarbonization solutions
RESEARCH PAPER
Dr Daniel Quiggin
Senior Research Fellow, Environment and Society Centre, Chatham House
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/11/net-zero-and-role-aviation-industry
15 NOVEMBER 2023
ISBN: 978 1 78413 592 8
DOI: 10.55317/9781784135928
With growing uncertainty over the approach to net zero, the airline industry is struggling to find a sustainable way of reducing its carbon emissions. Global efforts to stay within the 1.5°C temperature target of the Paris Agreement are off-track, and extreme weather events are more common than ever. While the aviation sector is a critical contributor to the global economy and provides important benefits enabling travel around the world, the sector is notoriously difficult to decarbonize.
Most supply-side options for reducing aviation carbon emissions – such as zero-emissions aircraft and sustainable aviation fuels – are yet to be scaled and are still at the R&D phase. In the context of dwindling carbon budgets, this paper assesses the possibility of managing the demand for flights in order to set the sector on an achievable path for reaching net zero.
The model developed for this paper generates different scenarios that consider the main supply-side decarbonization solutions. The assessment notes the ‘acceptable’ level of aviation demand under each scenario to remain within carbon budgets. The model demonstrates that acting prudently, and reducing demand for flights in the short term, would offer the best chance of enabling the sector to play its role in achieving net zero.
Summary
01 Introduction
02 Model overview and summary of high-level results
03 Supply-side emissions abatement
04 Balancing demand management and reliance on future supply-side solutions
05 Conclusions and recommendations
Appendices
About the Author
Summary
- The aviation industry contributes around 1 per cent of UK GDP and provides additional unquantifiable benefits, including aiding the expansion of business investment and enabling people to visit family members who live abroad. However, there is a significant risk that by 2030 the global carbon budget – to retain a 67 per cent chance of averting more than 1.5°C of global warming – will be exhausted. The aviation sector remains extremely difficult to decarbonize, with the deployment of supply-side solutions likely to take decades.
- Near-term policies to manage demand within the aviation sector could play a role in buying time for the development of supply-side decarbonization solutions, such as advanced next-generation aircraft and sustainable aviation fuels. While this approach may be politically challenging, the climate risks associated with surpassing 1.5°C – when tipping points may begin to kick in and lead to runaway climate change – make it vital to examine what level of demand management may be required, and what it may entail.
- The focus on demand management in the aviation sector is gaining traction. In December 2022, the European Commission gave France the green light to ban short-haul domestic flights between cities linked by train journeys of less than 2.5 hours. In the UK, the Climate Assembly has shown that the British public supports limits on flying, depending on how technological solutions progress.
- Demand-management policies and technological solutions can work in parallel: as supply-side technologies are commercialized and deployed, demand-management measures could be eased. In October 2022, the UK Committee on Climate Change noted in its progress update that it is considering ways of mitigating the risks of relying on supply-side solutions, ‘The Government’s plans for aviation focus on sustainable aviation fuel and zero/low-emission aircrafts. These technologies have potential, but there are significant risks in their delivery. In the near term, managing demand would have a much greater benefit for the climate.’
- The model developed for this paper explores the role of demand management following analysis of the main emissions abatement mechanisms of the UK government’s Jet Zero Strategy high-ambition scenario. The model covers all UK domestic and outbound international flights.
- According to this analysis, a prudent risk-minimization approach would be to reduce flying in terms of frequency and distances flown, over the remainder of the 2020s. Under this lower-risk scenario, UK demand in terms of passenger-kilometres flown in 2030 would need to be 36% lower than in 2019 to stay within the sector’s fair share of global carbon budgets, with demand returning to 2019 levels by 2050, once supply-side decarbonization has caught up.
- In the UK the top fifth of earners fly five times more often than the poorest fifth. It may be possible to achieve a 36% reduction in demand by 2030 if a future demand-management policy shifted behaviour so that most people who currently take more than one return flight per year reduced that number by one return flight and took no more than four. This would leave the 77% of the UK population who currently take no more than one return flight unaffected. This is a moderate level of behaviour change to put the aviation sector on a climate-compatible trajectory.
- The impact of non-CO₂ effects – such as water vapour emitted at high altitudes as part of an aircraft’s contrails – remains uncertain and poses a further threat to already limited carbon budgets. Even the most optimistic interpretation of this uncertainty indicates that if non-CO₂ effects were to be factored in, there would need to be significantly greater reductions in demand.
- If near-term action to reduce demand is delayed, but the UK aviation sector is still to stay within its fair share of global carbon budgets, demand in 2050 will need to be around one-quarter lower, relative to 2019. This scenario does not factor in non-CO₂ effects and embodies considerable additional risk. Namely, that a significant proportion of the dwindling carbon budget is used up over the next decade, leaving humanity to rely on uncertain future supply-side decarbonization and even greater demand management in the long term.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/11/net-zero-and-role-aviation-industry
And
“Because of the unequal distribution of who takes flights, relatively large reductions in aviation emissions can be achieved without changing travel behaviours for the majority of people – or preventing or even changing people’s annual family holiday patterns. If a demand-management policy, such as a frequent flyer levy, were to be introduced, it is instructive to estimate how passenger behaviour would need to change to achieve the required demand reduction indicated by the modelling here. Analysing National Travel Survey statistics,162 and assuming average flight distances flown remain roughly constant, it may be possible to achieve a 36 per cent reduction in demand if a future demand-management policy shifted behaviour such that most people who currently take more than one return flight per year reduced that number by one return flight and took no more than four. This would leave the 77 per cent of the UK population who currently take no more than one return flight unaffected. This is a moderate level of behaviour change to put the aviation sector on a climate compatible trajectory, affecting only a small proportion of people with a high consumption of flights. Under the frequent flyer levy proposal, produced by the New Economics Foundation and climate charity Possible in 2021, leisure passengers would be charged no frequent flyer levy on their first return flight, increasing to £585 on their tenth flight of the year. These indicative levy rates were modelled based on limiting air passenger demand to 25 per cent above 2018 levels. As such, to achieve the demand reduction indicated by the modelling here a higher levy would be required, although it remains to be seen whether a frequent flyer levy implemented as the sole tax or policy measure can achieve this. Research in 2021 by Ipsos and the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations found that over two-thirds of the UK public support a frequent flyer levy. While this paper has highlighted demand management within the aviation sector in the context of a frequent flyer levy, many potential policies exist to reduce demand. These include carbon pricing, fuel duty, reforms to air passenger duty or VAT, and reductions in the availability of flights via management of airport capacity.”
HIGH PRICES OF AIR TICKETS DON’T STOP TRAVEL ENTHUSIASM IN EUROPE
By Gregory Dolgos (Tourism Review)
Nov 22, 2023
The latest IATA study shows that European carriers are down 3.6% in traffic compared to 2019, reflecting a slower airfare increase than inflation growth.
Europeans are still traveling as much, despite the inflationary context. In June, the average airfare in Europe increased by around 16% compared to pre-pandemic levels. However, this figure is still lower than the EU’s average consumer price index, which in June was 20% higher than before the pandemic. European air transport is recovering strongly and is expected to surpass 2019 by 2024.
The European air transport market’s competitiveness helped keep airfare inflation at 16%, 4% below the increases recorded by the general consumer price index. This is a significant achievement, given the extreme volatility of jet fuel prices and labor wage increases. It stands in contrast to the ongoing rate increases imposed by our suppliers. Despite this summer’s disruptions, the UK’s CAA recently approved a 56% increase in passenger fees at London Heathrow. In addition, it approved a 26% increase for Nats, the UK’s air navigation service provider.
Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport has implemented a 37% increase in the Netherlands, despite facing many problems.
The European air transport market is recovering, leading to even more challenging market conditions. As a result, consumers will now have more options to choose from in terms of routes and airlines.
In the previous years, 20 new airlines were established in Europe. This is significant because a more competitive air transport market will make Europe an even more competitive place to conduct business.
https://www.tourism-review.com/air-transport-in-europe-growing-news13991