Climate Change News
Below are news items on climate change – many with relevance to aviation
ICAO Options for Allocating International Aviation CO2 Emissions between Countries – an Assessment
ICAO has the task of working out a mechanism by which international aviation carbon emissions can be allocated, so they can be subject to market based mechanisms (MBM), in order to control them. It is not a simple task to work out a fair mechanism for doing this, that will be acceptable to all countries. The three main options that have been identified by the MBM experts are to impose obligations based on (1). On all departing international flights from a State. (2). On all international flights carried out by operators registered in a given State. (3). On international flights on the basis of the nationality of airspace travelled through. There could then be sub-options. This article explores those options, and assesses them on their transparency/trust (it is important that third parties can independently verify carbon emissions); Simplicity (complex allocation systems are inefficient and threaten transparency); Fairness/equity (carbon obligations need to be placed on the entities that are emitting the CO2). The writer concludes that the first option, of allocating carbon to all flights departing from a State is best on all 3 criteria.
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Wood, Bows & Anderson paper on realities of economic benefit and GHG emissions from expanding UK aviation
F Ruth Wood, Alice Bows & Kevin Anderson have produced a useful 4 page article in the current edition of Carbon Management . Their paper looks at the economics of UK aviation, and whether there are real benefits from allowing its expansion. They say that given the difficulties of carrying out robust analysis on the economics of aviation, the presumption that further aviation growth is good for the economy is at best premature and may yet prove dangerously misleading. As it stands, the debate is ongoing as to whether investment in aviation generates returns over and above similar investment levels elsewhere in the UK economy. Any resilient decision on investment must heed the carbon intensity of the activity in generating such returns and the likely upwards trajectory of a carbon price. A new runway or hub airport, "coupled with existing regional expansion plans, would facilitate passenger growth over and above that recommended by the CCC and be incommensurate with the emission constraints imposed by the EU-ETS."
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Government fails to properly include international aviation in UK carbon budgets – decision put off till 2016
The government was legally required to make a statement to Parliament by the end of December on whether it will include CO2 emissions from international aviation and shipping (IAS) in the UK's climate target under the Climate Change Act. Today Ed Davey went against the advice from the Committee on Climate Change, and postponed the decision, using some ambiguous wording. His exact words were that the government "is deferring a firm decision on whether to include international aviation and shipping emissions within the UK’s net carbon account" and that it "will revisit this issue when setting the fifth Carbon Budget (2028 - 2032)." ie. in 2016, which is after the next general election. IAS will continue to be excluded from the first 4 carbon budgets, which run until 2027. The Chancellor and many Conservatives are reluctant to do anything that can be seen as strengthening environmental regulations. If the greenhouse gases from IAS were included in the UK targets, other sectors, including electricity generation and industry, would have to make steeper cuts in their emissions. Government justifies its postponement by arguing that there is uncertainty about the EU ETS at present, and also whether there just might be progress on a global aviation carbon scheme through ICAO in 2013.
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Letter from NGOs and UK Chamber of Shipping asking Cameron to ensure aviation and shipping are included in the UK’s carbon accounts
The key green NGOs in the UK, and the UK Chamber of Shipping have written to David Cameron, asking that the UK includes international aviation and shipping (IAS) in our carbon accounts, bringing the sector into line with our world-leading legal framework for tackling climate change. The Government is required to take a decision on whether IAS are included in our carbon budgets by the end of this year. The NGOs, (the AEF, WWF, Greenpeace, CBT, FoE, CPRE ) and the UK Chamber of Shipping are asking that David Cameron should accept the recent advice of the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) by formally making provision for including emissions from these sectors in the carbon budgets. The integrity of the Climate Change Act 2008 requires that all sectors of the economy must contribute towards a cut in emissions of at least 80% by 2050 and aviation and shipping must be part of this long term emissions target. Recently aviation representatives said that they were comfortable with the CCC’s recommendations in relation to international aviation emissions.
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T&E says global action to tackle aviation now only ‘down to political will’ in ICAO
ICAO has recognised that a global market-based measure to tackle aviation’s contribution to climate change is technically feasible. T&E has said this is an important step, as it now means the only obstacle to global action on aviation emissions is political will. The EU has moved to improve the negotiating climate by proposing a delay of one year in the requirement for flights to and from the EU to comply with its ETS. The next step for ICAO is for a ‘high-level group’ of geographically representative senior government officials to make proposals for a market-based measure, which would then be put to the next ICAO Assembly in September 2013. At this stage, the likely outcome is far from clear. It is now a matter of political will, and T&E has said - throughout the 15 years of ICAO inaction since the Kyoto protocol was signed - that technical objections were simply a convenient excuse. There is no longer any excuse for inaction and the high level group needs to work quickly.
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‘Peak oil’ is dead – but the need for urgency is greater than ever
Jos Dings, the Direct of Transport & Environment (T&E) writes that we need to ditch any notion that ‘peak oil’ will come to our rescue on climate change, and that somehow geological constraints will end our addiction to fossil fuels. At the very least it’s time to be much more precise and replace the term ‘peak oil’ with ‘peak conventional oil’ (somehow I don’t feel this slogan will catch on!). The ‘peak oilers’ overlooked for too long the fact that high oil prices spur investment into ever weirder, riskier and higher-carbon ways to produce oil – tar sands, tight oil, oil shale, deep sea, maybe even oil shale or ‘coal-to-liquid’. We need to leave two thirds of known fossil fuel reserves in the ground to avoid catastrophic climate change. That is the key challenge, and an enormous one, for global climate policy to solve, and, perhaps unsurprisingly, it points to carbon taxes as a key element, if not the solution. Well worth reading the whole article.
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Obama fails first climate test by rejecting inclusion of US aviation in EU ETS
Barack Obama has signed a law excluding US airlines from the ETS, which is a blow to hopes for stronger climate action during the president's 2nd term. Environmental campaigners had urged him to veto the aviation bill as a sign of his commitment to fighting climate change. The White House said in a statement Obama still saw climate change as a priority but that he disagreed with subjecting US and other foreign airlines to the ETS. They said the Obama administration would work to resolve airline emissions through the ICAO. But this is disappointing to European officials and to campaigners in the US who had urged Obama to veto the bill. After winning re-election Obama listed climate change as one of the three main challenges facing the country. Connie Hedegaard tweeted: Aviation ETS: So far the re-elected Pres. #Obama #climate policies look EXACTLY as in first term. Wonder when we'll see the announced change?"
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Greenhouse gases hit record level …. and threaten tourism … while tourism threatens climate
The Doha talks are taking place at present, on global carbon emissions. The UN has confirmed that the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere rose to record levels last year, reinforcing scientists' warnings that the world is on course for dangerous global warming. TravelMole reports that this will cause more pressure to minimize tourism-related carbon emissions - principally from air travel and accommodation. Global warming will also threaten tourism destinations - principally small islands, delta destinations and winter sports destinations. Global CO2 was at 391 ppm in October, compared to the pre-industrial era level of 280 ppm. About 375bn tonnes of carbon have been released into the atmosphere since the start of the industrial era in 1750, and much of it remains there for centuries. Temperatures have already risen 0.8 C and stopping an increase of over 2C is not likely. The carbon emissions from global aviation are around 5% of anthropogenic climate change, taking into account the non-CO2 impacts. World Tourism Organisation says tourism accounts for about half of all global air passengers
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ICAO now says there are likely to be further delays in its attempt to work out a global carbon plan
One step forward, two steps back ... A top official at the UN's ICAO - Secretary General Raymond Benjamin - has said he welcomed the EU's suspension of its ETS in order to give ICAO time to thrash out a plan to reduce the aviation's carbon footprint globally. On Monday the EU put its ETS scheme on hold for a year as ICAO had said it would set up a committee to work through difficult political issues that are blocking its progress, such as how to deal fairly with developing nations. Benjamin now says he cannot rule out further delays in ICAO's work. Benjamin said in June that he believed the agency would narrow down the three "market-based measures" still being considered and put its weight behind a single option by March 2013. But now he cannot guarantee this would happen before next fall's ICAO general assembly in Montreal in November 2013. Announcing the one year delay in ETS, EU Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard said of ICAO: "If this exercise does not deliver - and I hope it does - then needless to say we are back to where we are today with the EU ETS - automatically." Possible schemes by ICAO are a cap and trade scheme, global carbon offsets, and offsetting with a revenue-generating mechanism.
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Despite EU concession, US Congress passes bill to halt US airline compliance with ETS
Less than 48 hours after the EU had announced it was suspending the inclusion of flights to and from Europe from the EU ETS, the US House approved a Senate version of a bipartisan bill that aims to prevent US aircraft operators from complying with the EU legislation. The bill authorises the Secretary of Transportation to prohibit compliance if deemed in the public interest. It now goes to the President for signature. An amendment by the Senate calls for pursuance through ICAO of a worldwide approach to address aircraft emissions. The final passing of the EU ETS prohibition bill by Congress has been welcomed by US airline and aviation representatives, although US NGOs said the bill was superfluous and counterproductive. There is strong feeling in the US that the EU does not have sovereignty in the US and has no right to levy taxes on it. A spokesman for Connie Hedegaard said it is now up to the US to show that they are serious about pushing for a global solution.