Climate Change News
Below are news items on climate change – many with relevance to aviation
“Government airbrushes aviation’s non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions” – new report
It been recognised for many years that the climate change impacts of aviation extend well beyond those of carbon dioxide (CO2), due to jet fuel being burned at high altitude, creating a range of impacts - including formation of cirrus cloud from contrails. But this fact is largely ignored by the government and its agencies. A new report, produced for AirportWatch, examines the reasons for this and proposes an ‘index’ which will help to ensure that the issue of non-CO2 gases is properly accounted for. Though DECC continues to use a multiplier of 1.9 for the CO2 alone, in its conversion factors, the issue of the non-CO2 impacts has been systematically downplayed by the UK government and its associates over recent years. While ‘scientific uncertainty’ is claimed as the reason to ignore non-CO2, the report considers the real reason is that aviation emissions are an embarrassment to government and others who want to expand airports and air travel. The new paper suggests a new index should be developed. To be very conservative, this should be set at a multiplier of 1.6 of the CO2 emissions alone. It would be an interim measure, pending a thorough and independent review of the issue of aviation’s non-CO2 emissions. Ignoring the non-CO2 impacts of aviation, due to scientific uncertainty, is not acceptable. Using lack of certainty as a justification for ignoring a known issue would not be accepted in other areas.
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Darren Johnson asks: Why spend billions on a new runway and then tax us to keep demand for flights down?
Darren Johnson, writing in Best Foot Forward, says there is a huge hidden assumption, in the small print of the Airports Commission. It is that in order for Heathrow or Gatwick to expand, air fares will have to rise across the UK to the point where potential customers abandon the northern and regional airports in favour of their more efficient rivals in the south east. Without more runways in the south east, the regional airports will see a small expansion in flights, but the UK may well be able remain below our CO2 limit for aviation in 2050 (37.5 MtCO2 per year). With another SE runway, the only way to stop it filling up and being intensively used, is to raise fares – a lot - to deter demand, so aviation CO2 emissions remain under the cap. Otherwise the CO2 will just be too high. All this is tucked away in the small print of various appendices. Darren has written to the Commission about this, and responses show they (and the DfT) are aware that a high carbon price would be needed. Estimates vary, but this could add £100 to £150 to a return flight to Ibiza by 2050. Are we just leaving our children to sort out the mess in future? Rather than building a runway, and then having to cut demand (London and the regions) by high taxes, surely it makes more sense not to build the runway in the first place?
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Levy on frequent leisure flyers proposed to make airport expansion unnecessary
Plans for a “frequent flyer” tax to curb demand for leisure flights and make a new runway in south-east England unnecessary have been unveiled by an influential group of transport campaigners, environmentalists and tax experts. These include the Campaign for Better Transport, the New Economics Foundation, the Tax Justice Network, Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth among others. In a letter to the Observer - in order to remove the alleged "need" for a new south east runway - they put forward the concept of allowing each person one tax-free flight per year, but increasing the rate of tax for people who fly frequently. The levy would rise with each successive flight. This would mean that instead of APD (£13 per return flight to Europe) there would be a higher rate of tax for frequent fliers. Their analysis shows that 15% of the UK population take 70% of all the flights, while half of us don’t fly at all in any given year. Rather than a new runway being vital for business, the reality is that it would be used for the better off to take more leisure flights (holidays or visiting friends and family). The proposed levy would mean the number of flights would be cut to a level that would make a new runway unnecessary. The authors of the scheme have also shown that this change to the taxation of air travel would also ensure the UK could comply with its obligations under the Climate Change Act.
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New AEF report on how new SE runway would mean slashing growth at regional airports to meet UK climate targets
AEF has produced a new report called "Flying into trouble: London airport expansion would mean slashing growth at regional airports to meet UK climate targets." AEF believe the Airports Commission, when it reports (probably within two weeks) will be handing Government an incomplete analysis with no convincing or credible answers on how to limit carbon emissions. AEF calls on the Government to reject the Commission's report, pending a proper analysis on the carbon challenge. The CCC says UK aviation CO2 emissions should not exceed a cap of 37.5MtCO2 per year by 2050. An extra SE runway would require slashing the projected number of flights using UK regional airports, to keep under the cap. The Airports Commission’s own analysis shows that under current trends, this limit will be breached - even without a new runway. The problem would be made far worse by adding a runway. AEF says the figures could only be balanced by limiting the growth of airports in the ‘Northern Powerhouse’ and other regions, which would directly contradict Government policy for regional airport growth. It would be impossible to deliver, in practice. The Commission's own figures show how the number of flights using regional airports would fall, with a new SE runway - and these economic costs are not factored in.
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After EPA “endangerment finding” USA starting to take CO2 emissions from aviation seriously
The Obama administration has now released a scientific finding from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that greenhouse gases from aircraft pose a risk to human health. This is called an "endangerment finding" and it paves the way for regulating CO2 emissions from the US aviation industry. It would allow the US to implement a global CO2 emissions standard for new aircraft, that is being developed by ICAO. However, the ICAO CO2 standard will only start in late 2016 and only apply to new plane designs certified from 2020, leaving most of the world's existing fleets unaffected for years to come. But James Lees, from AEF, writing in a blog, says this EPA move could mark a turning point in efforts to regulate CO2 emissions from aviation globally. While most sectors are expected to cut their emissions, the CO2 from aviation is expected to triple by 2050. Today's airline fleet is more carbon efficient than it was in the early 1970s but efficiency improvements slowed down dramatically since 2000 - while passenger demand grows at 5.5% per year. It is hoped the UK, the EU and the US can now push for an effective global standard.
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Queen’s Speech section on climate says an ambitious global deal has widespread support and is strongly in the UK’s interest
In the Queen's Speech she said: “My Government will seek effective global collaboration to sustain economic recovery and to combat climate change, including at the climate change conference in Paris later this year.” The government's briefing on the Speech said: "The Government is seeking to address climate change through ambitious action at home and at the international level. We are hoping to agree an ambitious global deal on international climate change in Paris this year to take effect from 2020." Some extracts from the briefing include: "A [global] deal is strongly in the UK’s interest."... "It’s not just governments who want this deal. There is widespread support from business, NGOs and the wider public both in the UK here and internationally." ..."The UK has taken decisive domestic action through the Climate Change Act and has already reduced its emissions by 30% as part of its commitment to an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050 from 1990 levels. This target is in line with the global objective to keep temperature increase below 2 degrees." ..."The UK has set targets in legislation, 5 year carbon budgets and review mechanisms, which is providing a leading model for climate change policies both domestically and at the international level."
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UN shipping body – the IMO – shelves target for the sector’s CO2 emissions till “a future date”
The carbon emissions from global international shipping are around the same size as those from international aviation (but without the additional non-CO2 impacts of emissions at altitude). They are each responsible for about 2 to 3% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Shipping has a carbon footprint equivalent to Germany or Japan. Both sectors are left out of the carbon inventories of countries, as means to include them have not been agreed. Both sectors have been very slow to reach any agreement to cut CO2. Now at recent talks, the body given the task of working on emissions, the IMP (International Maritime Organisation) has said it will not offer a emissions reduction target towards a global climate deal in Paris this December. Delegates agreed only to address “at an appropriate future date” a proposal from the Marshall Islands to curb greenhouse gases in the sector. Under business as usual, the IMO’s own research shows shipping emissions are set to rise 50-250% by 2050, as a growing population boosts demand. With countries targeting emissions cuts, shipping’s share of the emissions space will grow even faster – up to 14% (compared to 2 - 3% now). Aviation is also expected to grow in a similar manner, unless the ICAO finds a mechanism to cut this.
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NGOs from across Europe send open letter to EU ministers, asking for proper action on aviation CO2
The inclusion of international flights into the EU’s carbon market (the EU ETS) was one factor that created momentum for a global, rather than regional, measure to address aviation emissions. Recognizing Europe’s potential importance in trying to get progress in the ICAO negotiations towards a global MBM (market based measure), open letters from 15 NGOs across Europe have been sent to EU’s transport and environment/climate ministers. The letters ask them to do more in getting aviation CO2 emissions cuts. ICAO is aiming to adopt a global MBM to address some of the rapidly-rising emissions from global aviation,at its 2016 meeting. In theory, if ICAO does not come up with a sufficiently effective MBM, the EU will be asked to bring back its ETS measure. But with just one year till the scheduled adoption, the EU is punching below its weight at the negotiations, and there are concerns the ICAO'e level of ambition on CO2 is far too low. The NGO letters say that to keep aviation CO2 emissions down, the subsidies that European aviation enjoys, including tax-free status of fuel and no VAT, subsidies to non-viable regional airports and legalising operating aid to airlines, need to be cut.
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Not only is the election silent on climate or the new runway issue, but the runway debate is silent on climate change
The glaring omission in this election of discussion of a range of issues has been noted by many commentators. A recent open letter in the Independent asked the parties to set out their polices on a range of climate issues. Tim Johnson, Director of the Aviation Environment Federation (AEF), in a letter in the Independent, has said of the gap in the current political discourse about climate change, that this is "nowhere more apparent than in relation to the impending decision on airport expansion....Shortly after the election, the new government will receive the advice of the Airports Commission in relation to new runway capacity. But while the commission’s head, Howard Davies, speaks as though climate change impacts are being taken fully into account, in fact the commission’s own analysis predicts that aviation emissions will exceed the maximum level compatible with the UK’s Climate Change Act if any of its shortlisted schemes at Heathrow or Gatwick is granted approval. ....This enormous climate hurdle in the way of expansion appears almost totally absent from political debate. With a new runway potentially locking the UK into an emissions path entirely at odds with our long-term climate commitments, politicians will very soon need to face up to the CO2 consequences of sanctioning airport growth."
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Open letter from CEOs of 43 global firms (none in aviation) asks global leaders to work for ambitious Paris deal
The CEOs of 43 large global companies have written an open letter to world leaders, asking them to deliver an ambitious climate change agreement at the Paris climate summit later this year, while pledging to reduce their own greenhouse gas emissions. There are no airports or airlines among the signatories. The letter called on negotiators to make sure a new international climate deal limits the global rise in temperatures to below 2 degrees Celsius. They understand that the private sector has "a responsibility to actively engage in global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and to help lead the global transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy". Some of the companies were IKEA, Erikson, Lafarge, Volvo, BT, Marks & Spencer, Munich RE, Unilever, and Vestas. While the companies signing the letter want to cut their emissions, help raise climate awareness and manage climate risks, they all want to take advantage of the growth opportunities of cutting carbon. The open letter was orchestrated by the World Economic Forum. Many companies are looking to governments to provide a policy framework for a transition to more sustainable business models. Most governments missed an informal March 31 deadline to submit their climate pledges for the new deal to the UN,with only Switzerland, Norway, Mexico, Russia, Gabon and the EU having done so.