General News
Below are links to stories of general interest in relation to aviation and airports.
Etihad shortly to get first of 10 Airbus A380 but won’t buy more of them – also getting first of 71 Boeing 787 Dreamliners
Etihad Airways is about to get its first Airbus A380 and its first Boeing 787. Etihad has a total of 10 A380s on order over the next two and a half years, and now says it is not interested in ordering any more. The first starts service on 27th December, between Abu Dhabi and London, for one of its 3 flights per day. Eventually Etihad's service to Heathrow will be an all-A380 operation. Other routes are still being identified for the A380, which will be used on flagship routes where the airports are also slot constrained. It will be used on flights from Abu Dhabi to New York, Paris and Sydney. Etihad’s A380 features an all new premium cabin dubbed “The Residence”, a 3-room suite that includes a double bed and butler service, and costs $20,000 for the trip between Abu Dhabi and London. Etihad's first Dreamliner 787 will start service on 1st February, between Abu Dhabi and Frankfurt. Etihad has 71 Dreamliners on order, 41 787-9s and 30 787-10s.
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New Gatwick paper questioning extent of benefits to local businesses from 2nd runway
An important objective set out by the Airports Commission is: "To maximise economic benefits…..To promote employment and economic growth in the local area….To produce positive outcomes for local communities and the local economy". A new paper by GACC (the Gatwick Area Conservation Campaign) challenges the assertion by Gatwick Airport Ltd (GAL) that a 2nd runway would be supportive of this objective. By engaging with opinion from local business communities, and taking a less selective view of the evidence, GACC concludes that the proposal would be detrimental for local businesses, the local economy and the community as a whole. The GACC paper (6 pages, easy to read) deals with a range of topics (shortage of labour, higher costs, inward migration, need for more houses, road and rail congestion and worse local environment ) and includes comments from local businesses. Two examples are the problems of wages rising due to fierce competition for labour locally, where there is very low current unemployment. Also the cost to local businesses of road and rail congestion, wasting time - as well as losses to rural businesses from a deterioration in the local environment.
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Sir Howard Davies argues for new runway in order to keep air fares low – or get even lower
Sir Howard Davies, Chair of the Airports, writing a comment piece published in the FT, says if "Britain is to keep pace in the global economy", south east England needs an additional runway. But he says this would come at a high price, and the question is where the money is most effectively spent. He says there will be a trend to more low cost long haul point to point traffic, and slightly more fuel efficient planes. And thus: "With additional runway capacity around London, these trends suggest more direct routes will be available to economically significant destinations, and an increase in the frequency of service on existing routes. Passengers and freight operators would benefit from the time saved from taking a more convenient or more direct route. There would be more airline competition, too, which would be likely to reduce costs." He does not mention the impact of a runway on the environment, nor noise or carbon emissions. Merely economics. His piece ends: "If this analysis is correct, removing the capacity constraint should benefit passengers, increasing the choice of routes and carriers, potentially at lower cost." So purely for the benefit of passengers, to give yet lower air fares (no VAT, no fuel tax, from May 2015 only two bands of APD, and minimal coverage by the ETS).
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Speech by Major Richard Streatfeild at the Airports Commission day on Gatwick
Major Richard Streatfeild spoke very effectively at the Airports Commission evidence session on Gatwick. He represents some 18,000 people who live in 11 parish councils on the High Weald, and the High Weald Parish Councils Aviation Action Group. Concern was first alerted earlier this year, when Gatwick changed some flight paths and started to concentrate others, causing much more aircraft noise nuisance than there had been previously. Thousands of people who had not been much over-flown in the past woke up to the new noise nuisance, and in particular, the threat of the situation deteriorating dramatically if Gatwick was allowed another runway. Richard spoke of the loss of trust and confidence in the airport, after repeatedly being told half truths, or lies. He also spoke of the torture, akin to sleep deprivation, of night flights - and gave both Sir Howard and Stewart a present of an alarm clock, set to go off once an hour - to try out for two nights .... to experience a taste of sleep deprivation. He said if Gatwick is selected, people know they will be "in a fight for our lives" and the extent of the battle will be unprecedented, through every means available. He ended by saying: "The solution is simple: Disperse the aircraft and make them fly as high as is safe, stop the night flights and do not build an additional runway."
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IATA estimates air fares will fall by 5% in 2015 due to falling oil price
IATA says global air fares are expected to drop next year as falling oil prices and strong worldwide GDP growth help airlines post record profits. The price of oil has fallen by over 40% since June and may fall further, depending on OPEC. IATA anticipate air fares (excluding taxes and surcharges) will fall 5.1% on 2014 levels. IATA said due to the “highly competitive” nature of the airline business, savings made will be passed onto travellers. They expect the profits of the global airline industry will reach $25 million in 2015, which equates to a 3.2% profit margin. On a per passenger basis, airlines will make a net profit of $7.08 in 2015. That is up on the $6.02 earned in 2014 and the $3.83 per passenger in 2013. IATA also increased its profit forecast for 2014 to $19.9 billion, up from its earlier prediction of $18 billion. However, IATA consider a margin of 3.2% is small and doesn’t leave much room for “deterioration in the external environment before profits are hit”. However, as many airlines "hedged" their fuel supplies in advance, many continue to have to pay prices above the current market price for some months, delaying price cuts.
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Complaint to Airports Commission that ££ multi-million Gatwick & Heathrow ads & PR blitz is ‘subverting democracy’
Campaigners against a new runway at Heathrow r Gatwick, have attacked the multi-million ££ advertising and PR campaigns being mounted by both airports for their expansion plans. They say this huge expenditure is “subverting democracy” and drowning out discussion of alternatives - and the basic question of whether a runway should be built at all. A coalition of environmentalists and senior MPs has written to Sir Howard Davies, the head of the Airports Commission, to say the two airports are exerting “unfair influence” because of their marketing power and huge budgets for advertising and PR. There has been a blitz of large adverts in the national press and billboards or posters in prominent places, including Westminster Tube station and also close to the offices of Airports Commission. Heathrow has placed billboards as far afield as Newcastle and Manchester. One media buying agency told The Independent that the cost of both campaigns was likely to have exceeded £7m. Heathrow has also funded an astroturfing campaign called "Back Heathrow", and repeatedly refused to say how much it has spent - and continues to spend - on this.
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NATS criticised after flights seriously disrupted after computer failure at UK control centre
On 12th Decemer, a computer problem at Swanwick, the main NATS air traffic control centre, caused huge disruption to airspace. The problem was sorted out after 45 minutes, but it lead to extensive delays for many hours afterwards. Some 10,000 passengers at Heathrow were affected, with over 128 flights cancelled. NATS is accused of cutting corners to boost profits and management bonuses. They are allegedly still using technology from the 1960s, though the section of the system that failed was designed in the 1990s. NATS commented that “Often the oldest technology is the most reliable. That is why it is still there.” There was also a bad failure in December 2013 which caused a much greater amount of flight disruption. There is to be an inquiry, but as the issues are technical and complex, this will be by the CAA and NATS. Transport committee's chairman Louise Ellman questioned Mr McLoughlin about the inquiry - saying it "did not look very independent". Richard Deakin (NATS CEO) said NATS will be spending £575m over the next five years on systems.
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London Chamber of Commerce & Industry says London should keep £1bn raised in APD from its airports
Colin Stanbridge, chief executive of the London Chamber of Commerce & Industry, says the amount of APD (Air Passenger Duty) levied on flights using London airports should be allocated to London. As the largest number of long haul flights are from Heathrow, it generates the most APD, with around £1 billion - around one third - coming from London airports. Mr Stanbridge says: "Now that Edinburgh and Belfast will control APD in their areas surely it must be the case that London will follow suit." The Chamber of Commerce wants there to be no tax at all on flying, and for APD to be abolished. But meanwhile it would be "more appropriate for London’s Mayor to oversee London airport APD..... We would like to see the funds invested in critical infrastructure projects in the capital such as Crossrail 2, Tube upgrades or a much-needed new road bridge for east London to name but a few. ...The devolution of responsibility for this major transport tax would represent another power for London in the ongoing fight for greater fiscal devolution to the capital to help stimulate local growth”. The Treasury estimates full abolition of APD would result in up to £4bn in lost revenue per year - other estimates are higher.
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Text of phone script of Heathrow commissioned Populus poll shows degree of bias
In July to September 2014 Heathrow commissioned yet another telephone poll by Populus, on attitudes to its 3rd runway plans. The poll showed 49% net in favour, 32% net opposed and 19% neither support nor oppose. The figures are broadly similar to polls in March 2014 (48% support, 34% against, 18% unsure), November 2013 or May 2013 and there was 50% support from a Populus poll in 2007. Though Populus publish details of the numbers, they do not publish the script used for the phone interview. An enterprising resident, irritated by the polls, noted the wording when telephoned - which indicates how much bias there is in the way the poll was conducted. There was no mention that the poll was paid for by Heathrow. The most dubious question is number 11 which asks: "Are you more or less inclined to support expansion of HRW (or maybe it was a 3rd runway?) knowing that it will mean: 11.1) An additional 41,000 jobs by 2030 (options more, less, or no difference); 11.2) Doubling youth training schemes from 5,000 to 10,000 places (options more, less, or no difference); 11.3) Reduction in number of people impacted by daytime aircraft noise (options more, less, or no difference); 11.4) Reduction in night time disturbance [not specific] (options more, less, or no difference). Unbiased?
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New Moody’s report shows Gatwick vulnerable to either its own, or a Heathrow, runway
The credit ratings agency Moody's, have produced a new report entitled "New runway will have mixed credit implications for London's airports". This indicates that Gatwick would take the biggest hit if a new runway was built in London, while Heathrow stands to gain the most from a new runway. Moody’s has concluded that a new runway either at Gatwick or at Heathrow would be bad for Gatwick. With its own new runway, Gatwick would be forced to levy higher airport charges, in order to pay for it.. Adding a runway at Heathrow would also result in increasing competition for Gatwick, because it would be at risk of losing scheduled airline traffic to Heathrow, where carriers can typically earn more per passenger mile. The Moody's analyst commented: “A runway at Heathrow would allow the airport to benefit from growth in future traffic volumes, and a new runway at Gatwick would not take significant traffic from Heathrow." And they say Gatwick double aeronautical charges would put it at a huge competitive disadvantage to Stansted, which is its main competitor in the low-cost airlines segment.