Heathrow to delay 2nd phase of work on Terminal 2 till around 2019 or later

Heathrow will seek to complete and open the first phase of Terminal 2 by 2014, enabling it to close Terminal 1. But Heathrow Airport has confirmed it is delaying the construction of the £2.5bn 2nd phase of its Terminal 2 building in its latest 5 year business plan (Q6).  This means building work starting at the end of the 2014 – 2019 period. The business plan says Heathrow does not now expect to complete the project until “late in Q7” – meaning it could be as late as 2024 before the building is complete. In 2010 BAA said the building, which will add capacity for a further 10 million passengers a year, would be complete by 2019.  Heathrow Airport still expects to spend £3bn over the Q6 period, with investment reducing year on year over the period, from £660m in 2014/15 to £464m in 2018/19.  “The next quinquennium at BAA will largely be about asset replacement rather than major new projects.” Launching the investment plans,  Colin Matthews said Heathrow envisaged passenger numbers increasing from just under 70m now to around 72.6m by 2018-19  (compared with DfT forecasts of 75m by 2020 – see below).  So no urgent need for space for 10 million more passengers.

 



Heathrow’s full business plan for Q6 (the 5 years from April 2014 to March 2019 is at http://www.heathrowairport.com/static/HeathrowAboutUs/Downloads/PDF/Q6_Heathrow_Full_Business_


 

In February 2012 BAA said ( link ): 

To minimise disruption to passengers, construction of Terminal 2 is taking place in two phases. The first phase will see the creation of the main terminal on the site of the old Terminal 2 and Queen’s Building.  It also involves the construction of a satellite terminal with additional aircraft parking stands and passenger gates called Terminal 2B. This first phase is due to open to passengers in 2014.

The second phase would extend the main Terminal 2 building northwards onto the existing Terminal 1 site. This phase, which would also include the construction of a second satellite building, T2C, would increase the capacity of Terminal 2 from 20 million passengers a year to 30 million passengers a year.

 


 

BAA confirms delay to £2.5bn Heathrow project

12 February 2013 (Building.co.uk)

By Joey Gardiner

Airport operator delays £2.5bn second phase of Terminal 2 building at Heathrow as it publishes £3bn five-year plan

Heathrow

BAA has confirmed it is delaying the construction of the £2.5bn second phase of its Terminal 2 building at Heathrow in its latest five year business plan for the airport, published today.

The delay, revealed by Building in October last year, will see building work starting on the £2.5bn project at the end of the five year period, called the sixth quinquennium (Q6), which runs between 2014 and 2019.

However, the business plan reveals that Heathrow’s owners BAA do not now expect to complete the project until “late in Q7” – meaning it could be as late as 2024 before the building is complete.

In 2010 BAA said the building, which will add capacity for a further 10 million passengers a year and had originally been seen as the focus of the Q6 programme, would be complete by 2019.

Despite the delay BAA still expects to spend £3bn over the Q6 period, albeit with investment reducing year on year over the period, from £660m in 2014/15 to £464m in 2018/19.

The investment level laid out by the plan is at the bottom end of the £3-4bn which had been expected by contractors and consultants for the Q6 period.

In the document, published on the BAA website today, BAA confirmed it will seek to complete and open the first phase of Terminal 2 by 2014, enabling it to close Terminal 1.  It added “we will also commence design and delivery of a further phase of T2, for completion late in Q7, in order to be able to continue to provide high quality terminals into the future as passenger numbers grow.”

Other works over the period include the development of a new integrated baggage system; and the construction of new taxiways and stands which will allow Heathrow to accommodate more of the most modern aircraft. Overall the emphasis will be upon smaller changes which deliver a better passenger experience, improved resilience and keep costs down.

In a statement the airport operator said: “Our plans seek to strike the right balance between continuing to invest for passengers and keeping charges at a level that is affordable for airlines. The lower level of capital investment than in Q4 and Q5 will help to keep charges at an affordable level for airlines.”

The publication of the more modest plans follow the departure of BAAs high profile capital director Steve Morgan in October, after he said “The next quinquennium at BAA will largely be about asset replacement rather than major new projects. I didn’t want to spend the next few years watching the paint dry.”

The publication also follows continued uncertainty over Heathrow’s long-term future as the UK’s only hub airport, with London mayor Boris Johnson yesterday reaffirming his opposition to further expansion at Heathrow. Giving evidence to MPs on the Transport select committee Johnson said he wanted a new hub airport to be constructed to the east of the capital, a move which he accepted might result in the closure of Heathrow.

Colin Matthews, chief executive of Heathrow said: “We have invested billions of pounds in new facilities such as Terminal 5 in recent years and passengers say they have noticed the difference. Our plan for a further £3 billion of private-sector investment will further improve the airport for passengers. The plan represents good value for money for airlines and passengers and comes at no cost to taxpayers.”

http://www.building.co.uk/news/sectors/infrastructure/baa-confirms-delay-to-%C2%A325bn-heathrow-project/5050159.article

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 And

Heathrow Airport produces its 5 year business plan with large rise in landing charges to pay for £3 billion investment

Date added: February 12, 2013

Heathrow Airport has produced its business plan for Q6 (which is the 6th period of 5 years, from April 2014 -2019). It plans to spend some £3 billion on infrastructure, like work on Terminal 2. As Heathrow and the CAA over-estimated the number of passengers using Heathrow over the past 3 years, their income has been lower. Therefore Heathrow plans to raise its landing charges per passenger, by as much as 30 -40% by 2019 – much more than inflation. It said its prices “inevitably” had to rise in order to ensure a “fair return” to its investors. The CAA will publish its final decision on whether it has approved Heathrow’s proposals in January 2014. Launching the investment plans, Colin Matthews said the airport envisaged passenger numbers increasing from just under 70m now to around 72.6m by 2018-19. Heathrow’s 5-year plan is separate from any decision on whether a 3rd runway is built. Maximum airport charges allowed by the CAA are calculated using a complex formula taking into account the total value of Heathrow’s assets, return on capital invested and forecast number of passengers.

Click here to view full story…

 

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Below is the forecast for the number of passengers at Heathrow, in coming years, from the most recent DfT forecasts, January 2013. (Page 81 / 183)

DfT 2013 forecasts pax at main UK airports
Constrained forecasts (ie. no new runway, and not just predict-and-provide):
This forecasts Heathrow having 75 million passengers by 2020. By contrast, Colin Matthews said, on launching the Heathrow Q6 business plan, that they expected only 72.6 million passengers by 2018 -19.  A lot lower.
Presumably other forecasts are may also be lower that those of the DfT.
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and
Heathrow Q6 and Q7 pax forecasts and charges
This table (concerning airport charges, with X being the amount +/- GDP they could charge) gives estimates of future Heathrow passenger numbers.
This shows Heathrow only getting to 75 million passengers by 2023, not by 2020 – as in the Jan 2013 figures from the DfT.
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Comment from an AirportWatch member:
Interesting that better not bigger is actually starting to work. And that the Heathrow business plan is forecasting less than 1%pa growth to 2018/19.