Heathrow claim 60% of MPs back 3rd runway. Survey actually reveals it was only 55 MPs out of 95 interviewed. Not 650.

Heathrow airport has commissioned a survey by highly respected polling company, Ipsos Mori. They wanted to see how many MPs back a 3rd Heathrow runway. There are 650 MPs in the House of Commons.  Heathrow is proudly claiming that “58% of MPs back a third runway at Heathrow”.  So that means the survey found that 390 MPs thought that ?  Really? Amazing!  But that is NOT the case at all. The Ipsos Mori survey only in fact interviewed 95 MPs. They say they interviewed 143, but then cut the number back to 95. These were, in theory, “interviewed to closely represent the profile of the House of Commons” – quite how is not explained.  What the survey actually found was that  just 55 MPs (58% of 95 MPs) said they backed a 3rd Heathrow runway. And when only these 55  MPs – not the whole 95 – were asked if they thought a 3rd Heathrow runway would get parliamentary approval, only 44 thought it was likely (of these only 18 thought it was very likely).  This really is taking liberties with polling. Heathrow’s rather extravagantly claim that the poll “explodes the myth that Heathrow is politically undeliverable” looks frankly threadbare … and a bit desperate?
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Below are part of two of the Ipsos Mori tables, showing the answers to the questions on runway building. The interviews were conducted face to face, but we do not know the exact interview script.

The tables are at http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/MPs-survey-2014-airport-capacity-tables.pdf

Only 95 MPs were interviewed on this questions, not 143.

Answering the question:

“Thinking once more about hub airport capacity. Of these options, which ONE do you think is the BEST option for solving the issue of hub airport capacity in the UK?”

Ipsos Mori poll of 95 MPs

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for the question about how many MPs think a 3rd Heathrow runway could get parliamentary approval, only the MPs who had said Yes to Heathrow (in the table above) were questioned. Just 55 MPs.

Ipsos Mori poll of 55 MPs


This is the Heathrow airport press release:

9 in 10 MPs who back a third runway at Heathrow think it would get parliamentary approval

  • 58% of MPs back a third runway at Heathrow, 13% support a second runway at Gatwick to solve the issue of hub airport capacity
  • 88% of MPs think a successful hub airport is critical to UK economic success
  • 91% of those MPs who back a third runway at Heathrow think it would get parliamentary approval

A new survey of MPs by independent polling company Ipsos MORI explodes the myth that Heathrow is politically undeliverable. The poll shows 91% of those MPs who back a third runway at Heathrow think it would get parliamentary approval.

The poll also shows that a third runway at Heathrow is the overwhelming choice of MPs from the options left on the Airports Commission’s shortlist. 58% of MPs think that a third runway at Heathrow is the best option for solving the issue of hub airport capacity, compared to 13% for a second runway at Gatwick. Just 13% think the best option would be to do nothing.

Heathrow CEO, John Holland-Kaye, said:

“More and more people are backing Heathrow as the best solution for the UK hub capacity crisis. The countries Britain needs to trade with are changing fast and only a hub airport can provide direct access to these markets.

“There is growing momentum and support for a third runway at Heathrow. This week alone, Britain’s biggest business organisation – the CBI – has come out in support of a hub airport; the Airports Commission has said that it recognises the need for a hub airport but has ruled out a new airport in the Thames Estuary; and now this poll shows MPs back a third runway at Heathrow as the best solution for the UK.”

On Monday, the CBI described the UK’s lack of hub capacity as a “ticking time bomb” and said that UK business wants action and politicians to commit to spades in the ground by the end of the next Parliament. They published research showing that while all airports have a role to play in growing the UK’s connectivity, not all airports play the same role. The track record shows that it tends to be hub airports that deliver the new connections to emerging markets that we desperately need.

Notes to editors

Detail of polling questions

To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Having a successful hub airport is critical to the UK’s future economic success

Agree

88%

Disagree

7%

Base: All MPs asked (95), summer 2014

Thinking once more about hub airport capacity. Of these options, which ONE do you think is the BEST option for solving the issue of hub airport capacity in the UK?

A third runway at Heathrow

58%

A new Thames Estuary airport

8%

A second runway at Gatwick

13%

Lengthening one of the runways at Heathrow

4%

Do nothing / Use existing airports

13%

Don’t know

4%

Base: All MPs asked (95), summer 2014

And in your opinion, how likely or unlikely would each of the following options be to get parliamentary approval?

Likely

Unlikely

A third runway at Heathrow

91%

9%

Base: All MPs who think a third runway at Heathrow would be the best option for solving hub airport capacity (55), summer 2014

Methodology details:

  • Fieldwork dates: 9 June – 6 August, 2014.
  • 143 MPs were interviewed (58 Conservatives, 66 Labour, 15 Liberal Democrats and 4 from other parties).
  • An initial sample of 421 MPs were contacted to ensure that those interviewed closely represent the profile of the House of Commons.
  • Interviews were conducted face-to-face.
  • The total sample interviewed is closely representative of the House. Based on those asked each question, data have been individually weighted where necessary to reflect the true balance by party and ministerial or spokesperson position.
  • Sometimes the percentage result for “Total MPs” may be greater than the sum of the percentage results for Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs, as it also includes results from other parties. Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories.
  • All answers are in % format. Data is weighted.

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3442/MPs-attitudes-to-Heathrow-Airport-expansion.aspx

http://mediacentre.heathrowairport.com/Press-releases/9-in-10-MPs-who-back-a-third-runway-at-Heathrow-think-it-would-get-parliamentary-approval-9b8.aspx


Some papers enthusiastically reported this story, without looking very carefully at the Ipsos Mori survey itself. For example:

 

Three in five MPs back third runway at Heathrow, new poll suggests

Heathrow hails Ipsos MORI survey but protest group HACAN says the shortage of politicians responding means it counts for little

Nearly three in five MPs back a third runway at Heathrow, according to the results of a new poll.

Of the MPs responding to Ipsos MORI’s summer survey, published yesterday (Sunday, September 8), 58 per cent said they supported a new landing strip at Heathrow.

That was more than four times as many as the 13 per cent who said a second runway at Gatwick was the best option for solving the issue of hub airport capacity in the UK.

Of the remainder, eight per cent supported a Thames estuary airport, which waslast week ruled out by the Airports Commission , four per cent wanted a longer northern runway at Heathrow and 13 per cent said no action was needed. The other four per cent said they didn’t know.

Of those backing a third runway, 91 per cent said they thought it would get parliamentary approval.

Heathrow today hailed the findings of the summer survey, which sought MPs’ views on a wide range of issues, claiming it ‘exploded the myth’ a third runway was politically undeliverable.

The airport’s chief executive John Holland-Kaye, said: “There is growing momentum and support for a third runway at Heathrow. This week alone, Britain’s biggest business organisation – the CBI (Confederation of British Industry) – has come out in support of a hub airport; the Airports Commission has said it recognises the need for a hub airport but has ruled out a new airport in the Thames Estuary; and now this poll shows MPs back a third runway at Heathrow as the best solution for the UK.”

However, anti-Heathrow expansion campaign group HACAN said the poll counted for little as only 143 MPs, or just over a fifth of the 650 sitting in parliament, had responded.

HACAN chairman John Stewart said: “Very little can be read into this poll.  Only 143 out of 650 MPs were polled.  Of those that were asked just 84 supported Heathrow expansion.  That is far from a groundswell of support for a third runway.”

The group said people had been queuing up to show their support for the protest group at yesterday’s Brentford Festival , where it had a stall. A map at the stall showed the predicted flight path for a third runway passing over the centre of Brentford.

Hounslow’s two MPs, Seema Malhotra and Mary Macleod, have both said they are opposed to a third runway at Heathrow.

http://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/news/local-news/three-five-mps-back-third-7735845

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