Climate Change Committee reports that UK’s carbon plans (including “Jet Zero”) are unlikely to achieve “net zero” by 2050
The Climate Change Committee has updated its assessment (last was in June) of the government’s climate plans. They say current plans are unlikely to put us on track for Net Zero by 2050. They consider only 39% of the required emissions savings are backed up by credible plans or policies. The say significant risks remain in most sectors, particularly buildings, industry, aviation & shipping, and the government’s Jet Zero Strategy (July 2022) made no improvement to the CCC’s previous climate progress assessment in June. The Government’s plans lean too heavily on yet-to-be-proven technologies, which is risky. They recommend (and have given this advice to government for a long time, though it is ignored) a “much higher role for demand-side action in reducing emissions, which is necessary to mitigate the risk of supply-side measures falling short.” Depending on more fuel efficient planes and SAF is uncertain, and lower air travel demand would be more effective. They also say there should be no net expansion of airport capacity, and there should be “fiscal policies to correct the imbalance between the cost of flying and lower-emission alternatives.” The government is unwise to place hopes, before 2050, in any carbon removal technologies.
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Progress Snapshot
Last updated: October 2022
https://www.theccc.org.uk/uk-action-on-climate-change/progress-snapshot/
This is a summary of the CCC’s June assessment of the Government’s progress in reducing emissions in line with the UK’s climate targets. The snapshot will be updated periodically, when new data is available and after major Government policy announcements. This resource doesn’t aim to cover all areas in detail, so for a more comprehensive analysis refer to our latest Progress Report. To learn more about how we track progress, take a look at our Monitoring Framework.
1. Overall assessment
Current plans are unlikely to put us on track for Net Zero by 2050
The Climate Change Committee
7.10.2022
In June, the CCC assessed the Government’s plans for reducing emissions in all sectors of the economy. We found that only 39% of the required emissions savings are backed up by credible plans or policies.
– Credible plans are in place for most of electricity supply and transport
– Significant risks remain in most sectors, particularly buildings, industry, aviation & shipping
– Plans are insufficient for much of the agriculture and land use sector
The Government’s Jet Zero Strategy (July 2022) made no improvement to our previous assessment in June.
The Government’s plans lean heavily on innovation, and neglect the role of demand-side measures
Innovation is vital in a number of areas, but an over-dependence on yet to be developed technology is risky. The CCC recommends a much higher role for demand-side action in reducing emissions, which is necessary to mitigate the risk of supply-side measures falling short.
Aviation demand.
The Government’s plans for aviation focus on sustainable aviation fuel and zero/low-emission aircrafts. These technologies have potential, but there are significant risks in their delivery. In the near term, managing demand would have a much greater benefit for the climate. This is in line with our recommendation that there should be no net expansion of airport capacity. Fiscal policies are also needed to correct the imbalance between the cost of flying and lower-emission alternatives.
Engineered removals.
These are technologies that are used to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, balancing the emissions remaining that are too challenging to directly decarbonise. As engineered removals are at an early stage of development the CCC’s pathway is conservative as to the contribution they will make. In contrast, the Government’s plans lean more heavily on engineered removals by 2050, to balance the shortfall in ambition in areas like limiting aviation demand.
Demand can be reduced by empowering people to make choices that are good for the climate. The public are increasingly concerned about climate change and supportive of the need to tackle it. However, there is lower awareness of how individuals can best contribute. The Government’s Net Zero Strategy recognised the need for public engagement, but it is unclear how commitments will be implemented for public-facing advice, supporting businesses, increasing awareness and making green choices affordable and easy.
Two of their “Next Steps for Government”:
- Contingency planning. Given the range of delivery risks and the lack of progress seen in many areas to date, the Government – led by BEIS – should develop and begin to implement contingency plans, broadening its approach, to include demand-side policies.
- Co-ordination and delivery. The Government needs to develop an annually updated document, setting out its vision of how the Net Zero Strategy will be delivered, clarifying roles and responsibilities.
https://www.theccc.org.uk/uk-action-on-climate-change/progress-snapshot/
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See https://www.theccc.org.uk/uk-action-on-climate-change/progress-snapshot/ for better quality image.
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See earlier:
Climate Change committee stresses need to reduce demand for air travel
The Climate Change Committee (CCC), in its report following up the outcome of the COP26 talks, says that rolling out the Net Zero Strategy must lead to emissions falling in all sectors (i.e. going beyond recent progress dominated by the power sector). They say there is a gap on behaviour change (e.g. shifting diets away from meat and dairy and limiting aviation demand growth). That needs to be changed, in order to get emissions reductions. Reductions in aviation are especially important for the UK, as we have very high per person aviation emissions. The Committee has repeatedly stressed that an element of demand reduction for air travel is needed. The Government has repeatedly ignored that, knowing that anything restricting or make flying more expensive, is a vote-loser. The COP26 Glasgow Pact said there should be no “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies. The CCC has said that the absence of VAT or fuel duty on air travel are post-tax subsidies.
Click here to view full story…
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Climate Change Committee says there needs to be a reinvigorated UK effort on climate change
The Climate Change Committee says how far Glasgow can be considered a success can only be assessed by the actions that follow over the coming year and beyond. There is now a path to expected global warming of under 2°C, but only if all the ambition in new mid-century Net Zero targets is delivered, alongside national 2030 emissions targets. Current climate policies around the world do not come close to achieving these aims. For the UK it says “The Glasgow Climate Pact makes notable reference to ‘phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies’. The UK has a duty to act on this in common with other countries. The CCC recommends that the Treasury initiates a review of the role of the tax system in delivering Net Zero, including the role of tax in achieving a higher and more consistent carbon price across the economy. Low carbon prices are effectively a subsidy. No fossil fuel subsidies should be classed as ‘efficient’.” The CCC did not mention it, but the absence of any fuel tax on jet fuel, and no VAT on air travel, and effectively a subsidy to air travel. The CCC has repeatedly said that air travel should not be expanded unless there is effective progress on cutting aviation carbon emissions. Demand for air travel must be reduced.
Click here to view full story…
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