Climate Change News
Below are news items on climate change – many with relevance to aviation
Weak carbon price sees market analysts sharply downgrading forecasts of EU ETS cost to airlines in 2012
The current price of a tonne of CO2 is about €8-9. Therefore the cost of the ETS to airlines is very much lower than they had previously estimated, based on a higher carbon price. Point Carbon has calculated airlines covered by the scheme will have to pay around €500 million for the required permits to cover a potential shortfall of 59 million tonnes of CO2 this year, at an average estimated price of €8.50 per tonne. This may end up being even lower, at €300 million, which is described as a "drop in the ocean" compared to fuel. The carbon price will probably be low next year too. Non-EU airlines will be expected to pay for just a quarter of the total EU ETS aviation costs in 2012, or around €75 million of the €300 million overall cost. So Point Carbon estimates Chinese airlines will have to pay about €1.9 million in 2012, not hundreds of millions of €s. The cost per passenger for a trans-Atlantic flight is about €2-3, and a Barclays Capital analyst is quoted as saying "it is really hard to see what all the fuss is about".
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Editorial by Jos Dings, Director of T&E, on what ICAO needs to do on aviation emissions
Almost 15 years after Kyoto protocol assigned responsibility for dealing with aviation’s CO2 to ICAO, there is finally a sense of urgency. The EU has offered to exclude flights coming into Europe from the ETS if ICAO comes up with a global deal better than Europe’s initiative. T&E asks what would a credible global deal on aviation emissions look like? It would have to have three features: 1. A global market-based measure should be based on fuel use or emissions, not on the amount of passengers or freight. 2. It should reduce aviation emissions & substantially contribute to global climate finance. The current ETS price of €7/tonne CO2 fails. 3. It must work for vulnerable countries as well as for the climate. Some revenue could compensate poor countries for the impact of air travel & pay a global climate fund.
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What IATA said about emissions trading: 2012 compared to 2007 and 2001. In favour to against.
IATA now makes statements such as: "The European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) aimed at reducing the carbon footprint of airlines, if successfully implemented, could erode more than 30 percent from the struggling industry’s profits". Back in 2007 they said: "Intra-EU flights are expected to face minor losses in the order of €51-109 million in 2012, because of their more price-sensitive passengers. The net financial impact on extra-EU flights may be slightly positive. However, the overall impact on the profitability of all flights arriving and departing the EU will be less than 0.5% of revenues which is little better than break-even." Transport & Environment had put together statements on a range of aspects fo the EU ETS, from 2012 and from earlier years, to demonstrate IATA's change of heart.
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Article in the Hindu asks “Why oppose a cleaner sky?”
This week, the representatives of 26 nations will meet in Moscow to decide what they're going to do about the EU ETS. Despite the very vocal opposition, legal challenges, and warnings of non-compliance, retaliatory action and a global trade war, the European Commission shows little sign of budging. Setting aside the fact that the objections are based on a convention that came into place nearly 70 years ago, when there was little recognition of climate change, a growing body of evidence appears to show that the costs will be far less onerous than the industry suggests. the EC's refusal to budge could finally spur the global community into action on aviation emissions. The head of the ICAO recently said that options were currently being drawn up, with a solution potentially being put to the assembly for consideration by late 2013.
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Half of European airports part of scheme to cut their emissions (not the flight emissions though)
Airports account for perhaps around 5% of the total emissions from aviation. Airports handling about 50% of European passenger traffic are now certified under the Airport Carbon Accreditation programme set up by ACI Europe. Since its launch in June 2009, 55 airports have become accredited at one of the 4 levels of certification. In Year One of the programme, 18 accredited airports achieved a reduction of 411,390 tonnes of CO2, rising in the second year to a reduction of 729,689 tCO2 as 25 further airports joined. All very commendable, and excellent news that airports are cutting their carbon emissions. However, putting it in context, the 729,689 tonnes of CO2 is only 0.34% of the total 212, 892,052 tonnes allocated to aviation under the European emissions trading scheme, in the first year of the ETS. And European air passengers increased in 2011 by 7% in 2011 - so the emissions are rising.
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Arctic warms to highest level yet as researchers fear tipping points
Last year the Arctic, which is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth due to global climate change, experienced its warmest twelve months yet. According to NASA average Arctic temperatures in 2011 were 2.28 degrees C above those recorded from 1951-1980. As the Arctic warms, imperiling its biodiversity and indigenous people, researchers are increasingly concerned that the region will hit climatic tipping points that could severely impact the rest of the world. In 2011 the Arctic also experienced the lowest sea ice volume yet recorded, and the 2nd-lowest extent behind 2007. The older, thicker ice is declining faster than the rest, making for a more vulnerable perennial ice cover.The world's sea levels could rise twice as high this century as UN climate scientists have previously predicted, according to a study in the journal, Nature Geoscience. The IPPC proposes a maximum sea level rise of 81cm (32in) this century. Researchers say the true maximum could be about twice that: 163cm (64 inches). (BBC)
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Why Europe’s climate program for airlines is not a tax
US airlines are stepping up their efforts to mischaracterize and undermine the ETS by calling it a “tax” instead of what it really is – a market-based cap on pollution that lets them find the best and cheapest way to reduce emissions. The Environmental Defense Fund says this is the same tactic some in industry used to mischaracterize climate change legislation in the US during the last Congress, and they’re doing it again to undermine Europe's efforts. The aviation sector today emits about as much climate pollution as all of the UK and it is projected to quadruple by 2050. There will be a cost to reducing those emissions. But just because something has a cost, that does not make it a tax. EU law also gives airlines very broad flexibility to decide how to meet their caps. The ETS is a cap, not a tax.
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Letter in FT from WWF, AEF and T&E on aviation and the EU ETS
The EU has always said that it preferred an international agreement to cut emissions, but efforts to do so via the International Civil Aviation Organisation have stalled for 14 years. There are signs, however, that the EU move has finally prompted action from ICAO, which says it may produce a proposal by the end of the year. The EU legislation allows the exemption of incoming flights for airlines whose countries have equivalent measures, and in addition the European Commission indicated this week that it was prepared to review existing ETS legislation if a global deal that achieved greater environmental benefit was agreed to
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EU ETS aviation: Statement by Jos Delbeke, Director-General for Climate Action
Jos Delbeke: "The EU is firm on the implementation of its aviation ETS legislation, while engaging positively in the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)'s accelerated work on market based measures. This work under ICAO should move beyond discussions in order for decisions to be made to limit global aviation emissions. The EU cannot suspend its legislation. However, our legislation foresees flexibility to exempt incoming flights to take into account action by third countries. Furthermore, we will review and possibly amend our legislation if and when an agreement on market-based measures is found in ICAO."
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UK carbon emissions up 3.1% in 2010 compared to 2009. Aviation 6.4% of UK total (6.9% in 2009). 6.4% in 2005
DECC figures for UK carbon emissions for 2009 and 2010 show they increased in 2010, largely due to increased in household energy use and more use of gas and coal to produce electricity. UK international aviation emissions (excluding domestic flights) were responsible for 31.8 Mt CO2e in 2010, out of the UK total of 495.8 MtCO2e in 2010. This is 6.4%. In 2009 it was 6.96% because in 2009 aviation emissions were higher than in 2010 due to the recession, and total UK carbon emissions were a bit lower than in 2010. Aviation was 6.4% of UK emissions in 2005, so the proportion has remained approximately the same.