General News
Below are links to stories of general interest in relation to aviation and airports.
Dutch to introduce limits on the carbon emissions of international flights from its airports
The Dutch cabinet has announced that flights from Dutch airports will have their CO2 emissions capped from 2025 depending on the airport. It has not yet specified the different thresholds for each. This follows the “Aviation Memorandum 2020-2050”, a 2020 memorandum which laid down the blueprint for measures to achieve increased "sustainability" in the Dutch aviation sector. The Minister responsible for aviation said there is not yet any "global, European or national instrument that legally anchors aviation CO2 emissions in absolute terms. The CO2 cap provides this anchorage ... and secures the climate goals for aviation by setting clear and enforceable limits on permitted CO2 emissions, thus creating a guarantee for meeting the climate targets ... The targets are currently unenforceable; without introducing a legal cap, there is a risk that CO2 emissions from aviation will in practice turn out higher than agreed, as a result of which the goals of the Aviation Memorandum will not be met.” The cap is planned to be implemented in 2025.
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UK’s biggest airports between them hope for 60% increase in passengers, compared to 2019 level
The UK’s 8 biggest airports have plans to fly almost 150 million more passengers per year, in a bet that climate targets will not hold back the industry. A Financial Times analysis of their expansion projects found that combined they would be able to handle 387 mn passengers annually, a more than 60% increase on the 240mn travellers who used the airports in 2019. If Heathrow ever managed to build a 3rd runway, it would like to increase the annual passenger number from 81 million in 2019, to 142 million. If Gatwick is allowed (DCO likely in a few months) to convert is emergency runway into near full use, it could get more than 30 million more passengers per year. Manchester plans expansion of one of its terminals to handle an extra 15mn passengers annually. Edinburgh completed the work to raise its capacity to 20mn passengers in 2019. Airport executives and investors said airports were looking to push through growth plans because many in the industry believed that it would only get more difficult in the future as environmental pressures grew. The UK has no proper aviation policy, other than wildly optimistic hopes for novel low carbon fuels, and approval of “making best use” of existing infrastructure.
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Night sleeper trains are being revived across Europe
Sleeper trains are continuing to make a comeback in mainland Europe, with a number of new services being launched since last summer, or due to start later this year, or in 2024. Last year a new 13 hour sleeper service was started, between Stockholm and Hamburg, by the Swedish railway company SJ. The carbon footprint of an electric-powered train is just a small fraction of that of a flight. Passengers can then transfer to other trains, from Hamburg, to locations in European countries. The company plans to extend the route to Berlin from April. It will compete with an existing provider of night trains between Stockholm and Hamburg and Berlin - Snälltåget. There is going to be a sleeper train service by the Belgian-Dutch firm, European Sleeper, between Brussels and Amsterdam to Berlin. The company intends to extend its route to Prague from 2024. French night train business Midnight Trains says it will launch its first luxurious (not cheap) services from Paris in 2024, to more than 10 destinations include Rome, Porto and Edinburgh. There is also Nightjet, owned by Austrian Railways, which will have services between Vienna and Paris and Brussels. And there are more to come...
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IEA, oil demand and aviation growth – sector not on track on lowering CO2 emissions
The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that global oil demand is rising slowly, since the end of Covid restrictions, but is set for a huge boost from resumed air travel and China's economic reopening after its Covid measures. It said "Rebounding jet fuel use and a resurgent China will see an overall 1Q-4Q ramp-up of 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd), the largest relative in-year increase since 2010." It said that Chinese air travel has increased, with its domestic flights now well above pre-pandemic levels. IEA said "New aircraft are up to 20% more efficient than the models they replace, but this has been insufficient to keep up with growing activity. Between 2000 and 2010 fuel efficiency improved by 2.4% per annum, and by 1.9% from 2010 to 2019, demonstrating that additional incremental improvements are becoming more difficult. Meanwhile passenger demand grew at over 5% per year from 2000 to 2019, meaning that annual improvements are far below what is needed to align with the Net Zero Scenarios."
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Likelihood of Heathrow’s 3rd runway even lower, after CAA charges decision
The CAA has refused Heathrow's demand for a big increase in the fees it charges airlines. It had wanted up to £43 per passenger. But its regulator, the CAA, allowed it £27.49 on average. The present charge is higher, which means that fees will have to come down over the next few years. Heathrow can appeal to the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA). It looks increasingly unlikely that Heathrow will be able to build a 3rd runway. There was little mention of it in the CAA’s recent analysis. The 242 page ruling on charges just says: “We [the CAA] have said we will deal with these matters separately and in a way consistent with our statutory duties if Heathrow were to reintroduce proposals for capacity expansion.” Heathrow will say only that the plan is under review. There is some evidence in the CAA’s prices ruling that the runway will be a long way off, if ever. The CAA said the charges they are allowing would give Heathrow sufficient financial headroom to pay investors £1.5 billion over the next few years, a rate of return in line with other utility investments. But Heathrow has a level of gearing - the ratio of borrowing to equity base — of over 82%, making even that rate of return unlikely. And the negative impact of the CO2 from an expanded Heathrow make the project ever more improbable.
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Tourists and air passengers like the idea of being “green” but won’t pay for it
Tourists around the world and especially in Europe are - in theory - supportive of more eco-friendly leisure trips, but reluctant to carry the extra cost, according to studies and industry executives. In Germany, for example, 24% of travelers believe ecological sustainability is an important criterion when booking a holiday, according to a survey by motor vehicle association ADAC released this month. But only 5-10% would be willing to pay even a moderate sustainability surcharge, according to the poll of 5,000 people. People are not prepared to pay a bit more, for slight reductions in the environmental impact of their trip. No age group is willing to pay more. Few airline passengers buy carbon offsets, and these are anyway almost entirely ineffective in preventing more CO2 entering the atmosphere, in the short or longer term. Airlines will hope they can use new "sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)" to claim - often misleadingly - that flights emit less carbon. Perhaps they will offer more expensive fares if planes use a bit of SAF. That is likely to become largely greenwashing, in the same way as carbon offsets.
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CAA rules that Heathrow average maximum price per passenger will fall from £31.57 in 2023 to £25.43 in 2024
The UK Civil Aviation Authority has published its Final Decision for the annual caps that will apply to the charges that Heathrow levies on airlines for using the airport, until the end of 2026. The CAA confirmed that charges for 2023 will remain fixed at the level set out in its interim decision issued earlier this year. The average maximum price per passenger will then fall by about 20% from £31.57* per passenger in 2023 to £25.43** per passenger in 2024 and will remain broadly flat at that level until the end of 2026. This means the average charge over the five years will be £27.49 compared to £28.39 for Final Proposals, a reduction of £0.90 (all in nominal prices). This lower level of charges from 2024 recognises that passenger volumes are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels, and should allow Heathrow to continue "investing in the airport for the benefit of consumers and supporting the airport’s ability to finance its operations." The CAA hopes passengers will benefit from slightly cheaper fares, and better systems when they travel. The current passenger forecasts are higher than in earlier assessments.
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Royal Society report on novel aviation fuels – no option other than cutting demand for flying
The UK government has been promoting the idea of "guilt-free flying" in a few years time. Now a report from the Royal Society says (as has been well known by anyone who properly investigated the issue!) that there is currently no single, clear alternative to traditional fuel. Switching to so-called "sustainable" fuel is key to the government's aim to reach "jet zero" flying by 2050. Realistically, there will be no significant impact on reducing aviation CO2 from electric planes, or hydrogen. Small economies and efficiencies by airlines can only make a small dent, while demand for flights is expected to increase. The Royal Society looked at options for "greener" fuels to replace the 12.3m tonnes of jet fuel used annually in the UK. They conclude that to produce biofuels for UK aviation would require half of Britain's farming land, putting severe pressure on food supplies and nature. There is not enough genuinely low carbon electricity to produce much "green" hydrogen. The Royal Society says research and development is required to understand and mitigate the non-CO2 climate impacts of all the alternative fuel options. But it stops short of the obvious solution to reducing aviation carbon emissions - reducing the demand for air travel, and not allowing it to grow.
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How are Heathrow’s plans for a 3rd runway coming along? (They are not)
There are still "a number of serious hurdles to overcome" before Heathrow could consider a 3rd runway. Heathrow director of communities and sustainability Becky Coffin confirmed that the project remains paused and under internal review. There are the inevitable impacts on the UK's net zero, noise, air quality and road congestion, which remain serious and although surface transport decarbonisation is advancing, so-called ‘jet zero’ is some way behind (or probably impossible). The Airports National Policy Statement (ANPS) approving the policy of Heathrow expansion (eventually cleared by the Supreme Court) is nearly 5 years old and calls to revisit it are growing. Meanwhile, other airports are getting on with their expansion plans which mean that any carbon allocation for airports is getting used up at Heathrow’s expense, so it will get left behind. ie. Bristol, Southampton, Stansted, Luton, Gatwick, Manston. Despite the ANP win, the £14bn expansion plans have remained frozen due to Covid, and Heathrow's lack of available funds. In March 2021 the airport put its £900M T5 rail link on “controlled pause”, citing lack of funds. But in May 2022, Heathrow resumed purchasing houses in proximity to the proposed site.
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London City Airport “consulting” on extra flights and extended operating hours at weekends
Newham Council, the planning authority for London City airport, formally started consulting on its expansion proposals on 15th February. It will last until 17th March. Newham’s Strategic Development Committee will then later this year decide whether or not to approve the proposals. The detailed application is on Newham’s website It is a very long consultation with many dozen documents, only available online and hard to plough through. Local campaign group, HACAN East summarise the key points as an extra 6 - 7 hours flying on Saturdays; an extra 2.5 million passengers a year using to the airport; and extra early morning flights. At present no flights are permitted between 12.30pm on Saturdays and 12.30pm on Sundays. London City proposes for flights on Saturday to end at 6.30pm (7.30pm in summer). It plans to increase passenger numbers from 6.5m to 9m a year. It plans 3 extra flights during the first hour of operation, from 6.30 – 7am. It is not proposing to introduce night flights, or lift the cap of 111,000 allowed to use the airport each year. HACAN East is arranging meetings for local people to find out more.