General News
Below are links to stories of general interest in relation to aviation and airports.
DECC estimates of future oil prices. Low, central and high – out to 2030
The price of oil has varied a great deal during the past year. The price of jet fuel went up at the start of 2012 and has now come back to approximately where it was a year ago. There is speculation that the price of oil may go up, and also speculation that due to the global dip in demand, anticipated over several years, that its price may go down for five years or so. The new oil in the USA from tar sands is described as a "game changer" and in addition, efforts to cut energy consumption may be having some small effect. DECC, the Dept of Energy and Climate Change, produce each October a range of forecasts for the prices of fossil fuels up to 2030, with high, central and low estimates. The figures for each band in the 2012 estimates are a little higher than those produced in 2011. For 2020 their estimates are $93, 123 or 150 per barrel of oil, for low, central and high. And for 2030 their estimates are $80, 135, and 190.
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Scottish airports and York Aviation lobbying, yet again, for a cut in APD
Scottish airports are, yet again, hoping to get a drop in Air Passenger Duty, to try and keep flights under-taxed. Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen airports are calling on the UK government to abolish APD or at least frozen and then reduced. A new report by York Aviation (they produced one in February 2011 for BAA Scotland) says Scotland will lose 2 million passengers and £210 million a year in lost tourist spending because of APD. Strangely, this figure is massively higher than it was only a year and three quarters ago. In February 2011 York Aviation only said that " ...over the next three years, Scottish airports will lose around 1.2 million passengers, with the largest numeric losses on domestic services." So a very sharp increase. Dodgy assumptions and calculations? York Aviation and the airports, as they always do, only consider tourist income of visitors coming to Scotland, and completely ignore the money lost by Scots flying out to spend their holiday money abroad.
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Plans to transform Cardiff from declining regional airport to international hub revealed
Backers of what is being called the Western Gateway Project, have submitted details about it to the DfT as part of its consultation on aviation policy (closed 31st October). The plan is to transform Cardiff from an under-performing regional airport into an international hub. In a first-stage vision for the Spanish-owned airport a group of transport experts and entrepreneurs believe a relatively modest investment of £250m could elevate the airport into a “western gateway” facility – potentially providing hub and point-to-point flights to global destinations such as North and Latin America – while also helping to address the issue of where to provide additional hub airport capacity in the UK. The group plans to make a fuller submission to the Airports Commission next year. As well as founder and entrepreneur Rudi Plaut the group’s other members include enterprise academic Professor Brian Morgan and transport experts Martin Evans and Stuart Cole. They will now look to work with the Welsh Government to develop a more in-depth business case for a hub airport.
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Heseltine wants Davies Commission to report early so the UK can get on with building airport/runways
Michael Heseltine, the old Tory grandee who has been retired for some years, was asked by George Osborne in March 2012 to head an audit of the UK's industrial performance. He has now produced his report, called "No Stone Unturned, in the pursuit of GROWTH". It has a short section on aviation, in which he says that the Davies Commission review of airports should report before 2015 so work can begin on a third runway at Heathrow, or an alternative option, after the next election. His report says "the Government should publish all the options and all the arguments for airport expansion." [So no mention of balance, or considering the arguments against]. And it says that while waiting for the Davies Commission to report "In the meantime preparatory work could commence, with a commitment that no construction contracts would be let until a mandate had been secured at the next general election. [So this presumes that a runway or an airport will definitely be the suggestion of the Davies Commission, pre-empting its findings. Or even details of how it will work and its terms of reference, yet to be announcement - let alone its deliberations].
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AirportWatch says Government’s new aviation policy neglects regions in favour of SE
Residents living close to regional airports are likely to remain exposed to increases in noise, pollution and traffic despite a Government shake-up of its aviation policy, according to AirportWatch, the network of airport community campaigners from across the country. AirportWatch is calling on on the Government for leadership on a truly national aviation policy, not one that just focuses on the needs of London and the South East. The call comes on the day before the Government consultation on its future aviation policy closes. There are serious concerns that proposals in the consultation neglect the regions and are likely to lead to “a two tier system” unless government is prepared to give some direction to all airports. The majority of the noise and air pollution proposals in the consultation document are confined to Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted with the Government suggesting that at the UK’s other non-designated airports they are dealt with through voluntary local agreements.
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Heathrow rejects both “Heathwick” and any idea of a dual hub with Stansted
On 21st October, Philip Hammond (now Defence Secretary, but who was Transport Secretary) said a Thames estuary airport would be very expensive and require closing Heathrow, which he believes would “destroy” the economies of West London, the Thames Valley, and the Surrey-Sussex corridor and be a complete disaster. He also said “I have long thought the answer is one hub across two sites, with a fast shuttle service between Heathrow and Gatwick.” Now José Leo, BAA's [now renamed Heathrow Ltd] company’s chief financial officer says "Heathwick" would mean Heathrow would lose a “critical element of competition” if passengers had to spend time on trains between airports. So neither Heathrow nor Gatwick want Heathwick. On the suggested rail link between Heathrow and Stansted, Mr Leo said that had a dual hub system between Heathrow and Stansted been viable, BAA,would already have pursued that option, but it would not be of use to Heathrow.
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CEOs of MAG, Bristol airport and Dubai (sic, Dubai) airport want UK to make rapid airports decision
CEOs of Manchester and Bristol airports are criticising the slowness of the mechanism to decide on future UK airport capacity - the terms of reference etc of the Davies Commission have not yet even been announced. The two airports are joined by Dubai airport - not naturally part of the UK decision making system. Manchester Airports Group say the lack of certainty about future airport plans "increases risks and drives businesses to focus investment opportunities in other countries." They also claim, as usual, that "airports are integral to the economic success of the UK and the need for a long-term framework is absolutely critical." Manchester built a second runway 15 years ago (but it is actually very under-used) and the airport now has more passengers than Stansted. Now we have Paul Griffiths, chief executive of Dubai Airports, with his own axe to grind, saying the UK needs to have both Heathrow expanded and an estuary airport. Bristol airport wants government to "invest more in regional aviation". And of course, a cut in APD.
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ICE wants an Olympic Delivery Authority type of body to implement Davies Commission findings
The Institution of Civil Engineers, (ICE) and the Chartered Institution of Highways and Transportation (CIHT) are using their influence to put more pressure on government to plan for a hub airport that has "more than three runways and rapid access to Central London". But as this will take some time to build, they want the Davies Commission to "simultaneously conduct a thorough review of all the short term options.” They are saying the Commission’s interim report in 2013 must indicate a clear direction of travel and come 2015, Government should make an unambiguous decision that has cross party consensus and can be driven forward.” To do this they are advocating the dangerous idea of a body similar to the one that delivered the Olympics. The ICE wants an Act of Parliament to create "a special, time limited delivery body like the Olympic Delivery Authority (ODA) to implement the Davies Commission’s recommendations. Such a body would be essential in providing focus and leadership for timely and efficient delivery of what will be a hugely complex project." And they want to be part of it.
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New report by Transform Scotland challenges business to try the train
TTransform Scotland has published the new report, 'On track for business: Why Scottish businesses should try the train', which sets out the economic benefits available to Scottish businesses and public sec tor bodies in switching from air travel to rail travel, and challenges Scottish business to save money and benefit the environment by using the train for business travel between Edinburgh and London. The value of productive work done on the train is part of the cost calculation. The report compares air and rail business travel for business on the Edinburgh-London route, and concludes that rail travel is a superior product to air. It says rail is better value for money, provides a high-quality working environment during the journey with with Wi-Fi, power points, and quiet work space, is more relaxing and is less hard on the environment. Progress has been made by major Scottish businesses RBS and SSE in switching from air to rail.
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Labour joins call to fast-track airports review – to get Davies to report before 2015 election
Labour has joined Boris in demanding that a review into London’s airports be completed before the next election. Shadow transport secretary Maria Eagle has warned that delaying the report of the independent commission to be headed by Sir Howard Davies until after 2015 risked "kicking the issue into the long grass." Maria Eagle said “There will therefore be no possibility of cross-party talks in advance of the election to establish whether consensus can be reached to support Sir Howard’s recommendations — and no opportunity to make the manifesto commitments that mean these are significantly more likely to become a reality.” Labour has shifted its post-election position from being against a 3rd runway at Heathrow to being “sceptical” about it. Ms Eagle also said (at the AOA conference) that the delay in the review would make it harder to form a policy on the proposed high-speed rail route.