Climate Change News
Below are news items on climate change – many with relevance to aviation
Aviation’s present-day contribution to human-induced global warming is 4% and is likely to increase over the next 30 years
It is possible that, though the global heating impact of aviation so far has been about 4%, this could make up about one-sixth (about 16%) of the remaining temperature budget required to limit global warming to 1.5˚C by 2050. A recently published article, by a number of well recognised academics, suggests that emissions produced by the aviation industry must be reduced each year if the sector's emissions are not to increase warming further. The authors show that the only way to 'freeze' the temperature increase from the sector is to cut its CO2 emissions by about 2.5% per year. The industry plans extensive growth over coming decades, but the academics say "there is little chance for the aviation industry to meet any climate target if it aims for a return to normal." There are hopes the low carbon fuels could be found, and also that the non-CO2 impacts of burning jet fuel at high altitude could be cut, by using different fuels, emitting less water.
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COP26: airport campaigners to protest at 10 UK airports, against aviation expansion and greenwash
To remind everyone, during the COP26 talks in Glasgow, that aviation is a huge climate problem, aviation campaigners are planning to protest at Bristol, Doncaster-Sheffield, Gatwick, Glasgow, Leeds-Bradford, London-City, Luton, Liverpool, Manchester and Southampton airports from 11am on Saturday 6th. The action has been organised by Stay Grounded (a global network of more than 160 member organisations promoting alternatives to aviation to address climate change) – as part of the COP26 Coalition Global Action Days. Stay Grounded and the many UK protests, are calling for the halt of airport expansion. The Climate Change Committee (CCC), the UK government's advisors, have recommended that there should be no further airport expansion, unless some airport capacity closes - but government has ignored this. Stay Grounded is also asking for an end to the “greenwashing” of aviation, and false hopes being placed in uncertain techno-fixes such as "sustainable" aviation fuel (SAF). The CCC has warned that SAF and other small technology changes will not be able to reduce aviation CO2 enough.
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Climate Change Committee advises government to act to reduce demand for flying
The UK government's independent advisors on climate, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), produced their assessment of the UK Net Zero Strategy, which was published on 19th October. On aviation the CCC say the government is not doing enough to reduce demand for flights. They have also not shown how to achieve their ambition of cutting the demand for road travel, or meat eating. The CCC warns a “techno-centric” approach to cutting emissions adopted by the prime minister has a high risk of failure. Boris Johnson has regularly promised that climate change can be tackled without what he calls “hairshirtery”. Nick Eyre, Professor of Energy and Climate Policy at Oxford University said: "The PM's headline about not changing the way we use energy is not just helpful - it's unrealistic. We won't reach climate goals unless there's a combination of technology and behaviour change." The CCC warns that the Treasury still lacks policies to cut emissions. They point out that the government hopes for 10% of SAF used by planes by 2030, while the CCC consider it might be 2% (at best). They hope demand for flights will reduce, if not by government policy, by increased public awareness of the severity of global heating.
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Sunak halves domestic APD and introduces a band of over 5,500 miles (costing just £5 more)
Air Passenger Duty is the only tax paid on air travel, as it pays neither fuel tax nor VAT. The rate has been £13 for a return economy flight to anywhere in Europe, since April 2012. The price is £82 for trips of over 2,000 miles. Until April 2015 there were four distance bands for APD. Adults on domestic flights paid £13 for each part of the return trip, ie. £26 return. Now the Chancellor has halved the rate of domestic APD, from April 2023, so it would just be £13 for a return trip. The claim is that this helps connectivity within the UK, being useful for those in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Flights within the UK are usually cheaper than rail tickets, and cutting APD sends completely the wrong signal, in making flights even cheaper - when what would help cut CO2 would be to reduce the cost of rail travel. Riski Sunak has introduced a new distance band for APD, so instead of just the two bands - of under, or over, 2,000 miles - a new band is added - of over 5.500 miles. This is from April 2023. But the increased APD level will just be £91. The rate for trips of over 2,000 miles will be £84 from April 2022, and if it rises by £2 per year, which is usually does, would be £86 by April 2023. So the higher rate will be just £5 more. Not much of a disincentive, or help to reduce CO2. Treasury expects £35 million less per year from APD after 2023.
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Government puts up, then almost instantly withdraws, document showing need for behaviour change to cut carbon emissions
Published with the government's decarbonisation, net zero, strategy on 20th October, was a document called "Net Zero: principles for successful behaviour change initiatives". It was produced for BEIS, by the Behavioural Insights Team (aka the Nudge unit). It contained many suggestions for ways the public's behaviour could be "nudged" to help lower carbon emissions. But the document was only on the BEIS website for an hour or two, before being withdrawn. Luckily one sharp-eyed and quick-witted aviation campaigner spotted it and saved a copy. The document suggests ways in which behaviour could be changed - while the government, and Boris himself, claims behaviour change will not be needed, and we will all be able to fly, guilt free, in future. BEIS says it does not wish to suggest behaviour change. The behaviour change paper said, of business aviation, that there needs to be a change in social norms, to international in-person meetings no longer seen as a sign of importance or pride, but "being an immoral indulgence or embarrassment." It also says government should lead by example, in not backing airport expansion for financially supporting the airline industry with little demands for decarbonisation in return.
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Lord Deben – head of Climate Change Cttee – UK must drop plans for airport expansion
Lord Deben, the Chair of the Climate Change Committee, has told the Airport Operators Association that the UK must drop plans for airport expansion if it is to meet carbon reduction targets. Lord Deben said “There is not any space for airport expansion ... The idea we are going to have a whole lot of airports expanding – we are just not in that world.” Currently there are up to 10 UK airports planning physical expansion, including Heathrow and Gatwick. Lord Deben said “The government has to make it easier and simpler to be good and hard and expensive to be bad. At the moment it is often more expensive and more complicated to be good....This is not about fiddling about around the edges ... We’ve allowed climate change to get out of hand." Meanwhile a document produced by the government's "nudge" unit (the Behavioural Insights Team), about necessary UK behaviour changes, was removed from the BEIS website. It contained a few suggestions about reducing demand for air travel, including encouraging more domestic holidays and more rail travel to Europe - acknowledging that stopping British people wanting foreign holidays, by air, would be very, very hard.
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Good Law project delays its JR of the ANPS, until Government finalises its “Jet Zero” Strategy in early 2022
The Good Law Project, with Dale Vince (Ecotricity) and George Monbiot, started a legal challenge to the government legal department, asking for the Airports National Policy Statement (ANPS) to be suspended and reviewed. The Supreme Court had ruled in December 2020 that the ANPS was legal, and that it had taken proper account of the climate impact of airport expansion. Today the Good Law Project has said that the Government has promised to consider whether to review the ANPS once it finalises its “Jet Zero” Strategy in early 2022. So it is prudent to delay the judicial review until the Government publishes this strategy. They say: "The evidence we’ve gathered shows that the Government’s current maths around aviation emissions doesn’t add up. And if they fail to match their climate rhetoric with action by refusing to review the outdated ANPS, we expect to bring a challenge next year." This is especially the case, as this year the government has included international aviation and shipping emissions in the Sixth carbon budget (2033 - 37) and pledged to cut UK carbon emissions by 78% by 2035.
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IATA now has aspirations for aviation to be trendy “net zero by 2050” while keeping on flying
IATA is now hoping it could achieve "net zero emissions by 2050". Previously it had aspired to emitting only half as much carbon by 2050, as it did in 2005. Climate experts consider two problems with "net zero by 2050" : the net part, and the date. IATA hopes to get some technical efficiencies to cut carbon, but its real hope is finding fuels that cause the emission of far less carbon than fossil fuels, up to the moment they are burned in a jet engine. (These fuels will still produce most of the non-CO2 impacts at altitude, due to water vapour and other gas interactions). There are widely varying estimates of how much "low carbon" fuel - SAF or Sustainable Aviation Fuel in the jargon - will be available. The main hopes for producing it are forestry waste, domestic waste, or electro-fuels produced from "surplus" renewably generated electricity. No SAF can be produced and delivered to the plane, without creating some carbon emissions. So claiming any SAF is "zero carbon" is incorrect. If a plane burns 50% conventional jet fuel, and 50% of a fuel the production of which saved 65% of emissions, that plane will only produce 33% less carbon than if it burned only conventional kerosene. And being able to permanently store residual carbon, underground, for ever is highly questionable.
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Campaigners tell the Treasury that aviation taxation must be reformed
In a joint letter to the Chancellor, AEF, T&E, Tax Justice, Green Alliance, Bellona and Greenpeace have called on the UK Government to reform UK tax in order to better reflect the environmental costs of aviation. The letter has been sent in advance of the Autumn Budget and Spending Review plans which expected to be announced soon. Since 1990, UK’s aviation’s emissions have increased by 125%, and were rising steeply till the pandemic. Now that the government has decided to include international aviation and shipping in future carbon budgets, immediate taxation reforms are needed. The letter suggests a jet fuel tax, of at least the level proposed by the European Union, of €0.38/ litre. There also needs to be VAT on all air tickets, at a rate of 20%. To properly account for the climate warming effect of air travel, which is likely to be up to 3 times as much as that of the CO2 alone, there needs to be an additional charge. That would be world-leading. It the aviation sector was taxed in a more realistic manner than now, it would incentivise progress on decarbonisation initiatives. The government is not prepared to restrict air travel demand, but higher ticket prices, due to higher tax, would have this effect
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Government considering counting aviation biofuel as generating zero CO2 emissions, in the UK ETS
The UK Government has proposed an amendment to the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS) legislation to allow aviation biofuel (one type of sustainable aviation fuel or SAF) to be treated as having zero emissions as long as it meets the sustainability criteria in the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RFTO). The UK ETS will only cover domestic flights, and those from UK airports to European countries - not long haul. Airlines are permitted a number of free ‘allocations’ in the ETS per year. Once these allocations are used, airlines must buy unused allocations from other operators or sectors. Counting aviation biofuel as having zero emissions would mean that no allocations would need to be surrendered for that fuel. It is highly misleading to claim that biofuels provide 100% CO2 savings, in life cycle analysis. Currently fuels with a 50% emissions saving or more can benefit from the RTFO policy. The way the carbon saving is calculated can be complicated, and include different factors. When burnt, SAFs emit at least as much CO2 as kerosene, and as such, should only be considered to offer a ‘net’, and not ‘actual’ emissions reduction. AEF comments: "The aviation sector has a history of being given favourable treatment in policy. This has to stop if the sector is to achieve net zero."