Climate Change News
Below are news items on climate change – many with relevance to aviation
Likely that ICAO aims to drastically weaken “sustainability” standards for aviation biofuel, under CORSIA
The European Commission and EU member states look set to agree to almost entirely remove sustainability criteria for bio jet fuel at the UN’s aviation agency (ICAO) Council meeting in Montreal. ICAO hopes that extensive use of biofuels in future will enable aviation CO2 emissions to be reduced, so the industry's continuous growth will not be hampered. Biofuels could only be properly environmentally sustainable in tiny quantities, if stringent standards are adhered to. But now the countries gathered at the ICAO meeting plan to trash 10 sustainability points out of 12, which will mean that highly unsustainable biofuels would qualify for the aviation’s global carbon offsetting scheme, CORSIA. These sustainability rules have implications beyond CORSIA because they will become the de facto global standard for biofuel use in the aviation sector. The 10 points would mean removal of rules on land rights, food security, labour rights and biodiversity protection. It is likely the 2 remaining are for a 10% greenhouse gas reduction target for biofuels compared to regular jet fuel, and a ban on crops grown on land that was deforested after 2009. The NGO Transport & Environment says this shows how the CORSIA scheme is a shambles, and the EU should withdraw from it.
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Carbon Market Watch recommendations for COP23 – CORSIA for aviation needs better transparency and clarity
"Carbon Market Watch" has made recommendations for COP23 (the UN global climate talks in Bonn). They say on aviation: "Don’t let aviation undermine the Paris Agreement. In writing the Paris rulebook, it is essential to address the role of aviation and shipping, two sectors projected to take up to 40% of the carbon budget by 2050. This includes assessing both sectors’ ambition towards Paris goals in the Facilitative Dialogue and Global Stocktake and compatibility with the Paris Agreement on the Transparency Framework and accounting rules. The CORSIA is clearly not along term solution for aviation emissions in a world where all sectors must quickly reduce their own emissions. Without transparent, compatible rules, the CORSIA could end up increasing the overall emissions in the Paris Agreement by an equivalent of those from 817 coal fired power plants in a year." And they say aviation and shipping should be integrated into the preparation and review of mitigation action of states. There should be formalised cooperation between ICAO and the UNFCCC on avoiding double counting, and information on offsets going to CORSIA participants in reports and updates under the Transparency Framework. Information on ICAO and IMO activities should be included in the global stocktake.
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For the love of Earth, stop travelling by plane – one of the best ways to cut our carbon footprint
Author Jack Miles, writing in the Washington Post, says we should cut down the amount we fly. He is writing as an American, and Americans fly a great deal - the country is huge, so many flights are domestic. Jack says: "According to ... Christiana Figueres, we have only three years left in which to “bend the emissions curve downward” and forestall a terrifying cascade of climate-related catastrophes." ... "Staying home, in fact, is the essence of making a big difference in a big hurry. That’s because nothing that we do pumps carbon dioxide into the atmosphere faster than air travel." ... "There are 7 billion people on our planet, but the billion with the largest carbon footprint includes the most frequent fliers. I belong to the top billion. So do many of you." ... "So for the love of the Earth, our common home, our only home, start conducting more remote work meetings and training sessions virtually. Inform those jet-setting friends that you won’t attend their destination wedding in the tropics — you’ll send a gift in the mail. Tell that conference organizer that while you’re honored to be invited, you would prefer to participate in live online sessions instead. Start taking vacations by train or car, rather than flying to Paris or beyond. Explain to your ecological public interest group that the Galápagos will be much better off without you. "
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Airports’ climate programme relies on offsets excluded under EU laws – CORSIA must exclude “dodgy” offsets
Transport & Environment has found that airports are relying on offsets excluded under EU climate laws to help achieve their voluntary target of "carbon neutrality." Airports’ efforts to reduce their CO2 emissions are welcome, but not worth much if the offset project types being used are highly unlikely to deliver promised emission reductions - and don't qualify for the EU’s emissions trading system (EU ETS). The claims of carbon neutrality therefore cannot be credibly maintained without serious reforms to this programme. Many of the offset types being used (cheap) were long ago ruled inadmissible by the EU due to concerns over their environmental integrity. Airports are not required to publicly disclose which offsets they purchase. Athens airport relied on wind farm offsets originating in China – offsets which are unlikely to deliver additional emissions reductions (a necessary criterion) and are banned from the EU ETS. Andrew Murphy said: “Flawed programmes such as this are giving a green light to airport expansion and the resulting surge in aircraft emissions." The ICAO CORSIA programme will approve its offset rules later in November. These must exclude aviation use of the dodgy offset projects.
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Supersonic, super-rich (1% of the 1%), super-polluting: the next generation of business jets
Hundreds of supersonic jets could be flying businesspeople over Europe within ten years, but documents show the EU is preparing to cede oversight of their huge CO2 emissions. This CO2 must be regulated. Concorde, the world’s last commercial supersonic aircraft, generated x3 more noise, NOx and CO2 than today’s subsonic planes and contributed x5 more to global warming, due to the high altitudes at which it released its emissions. No CO2 regulations, either international or European, have so far been put in place for the next generation of supersonic aircraft, which ICAO expects to begin certifying by as early as 2020. The first planes could come to market by 2025, and new company Aerion making these jets hopes there is a market for about 600 supersonic business jets. One analyst called this market “the 1% of the 1%” of business travellers who can afford it. It is likely that these jets would be twice – or even more – carbon intensive than a modern subsonic aircraft. The current lack of standards for supersonic jets is creating “a chicken and egg situation”, according to Tim Johnson, the director of the AEF. Planes before proper standards are agreed, or proper standards first....
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European Commission moves to Brexit-proof Emissions Trading System
The European Commission has agreed on a new measure to protect its Emissions Trading System (ETS) against a potential breakdown in Brexit negotiations. The EU ETS sets a cap on the total emissions from electricity generation and enables UK-based industries to purchase emissions reductions from overseas. Member States met on 18th October to agree in principle to change ETS regulations to nullify any permits to emit greenhouse gases under the scheme if they are issued by a country that leaves the EU from January 2018 onwards. The UK is the 2nd largest CO2 emitter in the EU, and research suggests that a UK departure from the EU ETS would tighten the supply-demand balance of the system by around 745 million tonnes. The new measure is intended to stop potential sell-offs of permits if UK businesses are ejected from the market because of Brexit. The Committee on Climate Change found that if the UK did leave the ETS, the 5th carbon budget should be extended to a 61% emissions reduction by 2030. The recently-announced Clean Growth Strategy outlines the trajectory towards the approved 57% reduction, but analysis suggests the strategy will fall short. Aviation is only partly included in the ETS, with just intra-European flights.
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European Parliament make progress on dealing with aviation non-CO2 impacts
The meeting on 17th October between the European Council and EU Parliament has finally come to an agreement on how to deal with non CO2 emissions. This is at least 9 years overdue. It opens a fundamentally new and important avenue of aviation climate mitigation work. The non-CO2 impacts on climate forcing are short-lived but they are potentially of great magnitude – potentially more than double CO2 according to the EC’s own assessment. A research consortium led by Professor David Lee will publish early next year a fresh report on non CO2 climate impacts. Then it will be necessary to follow through with further research including into ways to mitigate. The non-CO2 impacts issue is much more important in the northern hemisphere than the southern as there is where most land, and most flights, are. Europe is well placed to begin assessing what measures could potentially be implemented, such as operational re-routeing (altered flight levels) action on NOx, particulates and black carbon. The meeting reached a provisional agreement on a regulation to extend existing ETS provisions covering aviation beyond 2016 and to prepare for the implementation of CORSIA from 2021.
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Aviation biofuels plan would use palm oil and ‘destroy rainforests’ – warn 200+ environmental organisations
A new plan to accelerate production of biofuels for passenger planes has drawn stinging criticism from environmentalists who argue that most of the world’s rainforests might have to be cleared to produce the necessary crops. Aviation is one of the fastest growing sources of greenhouse gas emissions, with an 8% leap reported in Europe last year and a global fourfold increase in CO2 pollution expected by 2050. To rein this back, the industry is hoping for what it (unrealistically) calls "carbon neutral growth" by 2020 – to be met by biofuels, and offsets. The “green jet fuel” plan would increase the use of aviation biofuels to 5m tonnes per year by 2025, and 285m tonnes by 2050 – enough to cover half of overall demand for international aviation fuel. This is three times more biofuels than the world currently produces, and advanced biofuels are still at too early a stage of development to make up the difference. Environmentalists say that the most credible alternative fuel source would be hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), even though this would probably trigger a boom in palm oil plantations and a corresponding spike in deforestation. The vast use of palm oil for aviation biofuels would destroy the world’s rainforests, vital to life for local people and the habitats of endangered species such as orangutans. Over 200 environmental organisations are urging ICAO to scrap its misguided biofuels plan.
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BEIS “Clean Growth Strategy” admits aviation CO2 cannot be kept below 37.5MtCO2 – it has no plan on aviation carbon
The government's long-awaited Clean Growth Strategy has been published by BEIS setting out how it plans to deliver the carbon reductions needed by the Climate Change Act. BEIS claims that “This strategy sets out our proposals for decarbonising all sectors of the UK economy through the 2020s.” But there’s a huge hole in the strategy - there is no plan for aviation CO2. Despite the Committee on Climate Change repeatedly asking for details of how the sector will keep to within is recommended cap of 37.5MtCO2 pear year, BEIS has been unable to provide any. The Clean Growth Strategy now gives up on the 37.5MtCO2 target, and anticipates the aviation sector emitting 44 MtCO2. Worse than that, in its calculations it lumps in shipping with aviation in that 44 MtCO2 - which presumably is simply an error. The strategy document just says the government “has not reached a final view on the appropriate level of aviation emissions in 2050.” There is not only no policy to limit aviation carbon to the 37.5MtCO2 level, but also no clue how all other sectors could make even greater carbon cuts, to allow for the higher aviation emissions. Cait Hewitt, of AEF, commented that as the government has no proposals or answers on limiting aviation CO2, and there should not be a new Heathrow runway until or unless these are clear.
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Leo Barasi: UK Government’s new aviation strategy is a plan for climate chaos
In his new book, The Climate Majority, Leo Barasi looks at the problem the UK has with its carbon targets and its desire to fly more and more. There is no doubt about the fact that to meet its climate targets the UK must restrict flying – but the government is going backwards on this, and the public are becoming less worried about aviation’s environmental cost. A 3rd Heathrow runway, with ever more longer haul flights, might produce around 9 million tonnes of CO2 each year, which is about 8% of all the emissions the UK can release in 2050 if it is to meet the Climate Change Act. The government is well aware of, but trying to ignore and conceal, the fact that the Heathrow runway can only be built and used if aviation growth at other UK airports is restricted - or we fail to meet the UK carbon target. The Airports Commission was well aware of the problem, and suggested the entirely implausible solution would be to hugely raise the cost of flying a few decades ahead, to cut passenger numbers. The current consultation by the DfT is focused almost entirely on planning for huge aviation expansion, prioritising consumers over the climate. Ironically, while an ever larger percentage of the population realises climate change is real, and caused by humanity, fewer are prepared to reduce their own flying at all. Just 21% say they would be willing to fly less to reduce the impact of climate change.