Climate Change News
Below are news items on climate change – many with relevance to aviation
Letter to ICAO, from hundreds of organisations, calling on it to oppose the promotion of biofuels in aviation
ICAO supports the aviation industry’s quest for unending rapid growth, a quest which is incompatible with keeping global warming to 1.5oC or even 2oC per (a goal endorsed by the Paris Agreement). Greenhouse gas emissions from international aviation alone grew by 87% between 1990 and 2014 and are rising faster than those from almost any other sector. Efficiency improvements lag far behind growth in the number of air passengers worldwide and there are no available techno-fixes which would allow planes to fly without burning hydrocarbon fuels. ICAO hopes for vast-scale use of biofuels in aircraft: it wants to see 128 million tonnes of biofuels a year being burned in plane engines by 2040, going up to 285 million tonnes (half of all aviation fuel) by 2050. By comparison, some 82 million tonnes of biofuels a year are currently used in transport worldwide. The only aviation biofuels which can currently be produced reliably and at scale – although they are still expensive – are made from vegetable oils and animal fats, using a technology called hydrotreatment. Any large-scale use of aviation biofuels made from hydrotreated vegetable oils (HVO) would almost certainly rely on palm oil. That would be an environmental disaster. See details of the letter to ICAO from Biofuelwatch signed by hundreds of organisations
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EasyJet hoping to fly electric planes within a decade – reality is very limited, and a long time ahead
EasyJet has announced that it is hoping to fly planes powered by batteries rather than kerosene to destinations including Paris and Amsterdam within a decade. EasyJet has formed a partnership with US firm Wright Electric, which is developing a battery-propelled aircraft for flights under two hours. It has all sorts of hype about the difference this will make to carbon emissions etc. However, the weight problem of batteries imposes limits on distance a plane could fly. Jet fuel is around 50 times more energy dense than the best lithium batteries we have now. It seems extremely unlikely they could get a fully electric passenger aircraft carrying 120 passengers on 300 mile journeys in service in 10 years? It is more likely that the aircraft will use some kind of hybrid power system, using batteries to provide a boost on take-off, but then running engines using power from an on-board generator during flight (or vice versa). And it will take a lot more than 10 years for them to be in regular service. The short flights on which these could be used would be precisely those where rail (especially high speed rail) is a good alternative. Routes without a rail option might be Southampton to Dublin or Bristol to Paris. It is likely to be the kind of fake 'aspiration' to allow an uninformed public to believe that there is, or could be a green version of aviation. It is peddling false dreams, to let the industry continue with "business as usual" avoiding real cuts to CO2 emissions.
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Biofuelwatch to publish report about aviation biofuels ahead of ICAO high-level conference
From 11th to 13th October, ICAO will be holding a High-Level Conference on Alternative Aviation Fuels, in Mexico City. ICAO's Secretariat has published a proposed "Vision" which would see 128 million tonnes of biofuels per year used in aircraft by 2040 and 285 million tonnes by 2050. By comparison, a total of 82 million tonnes of biofuels was produced worldwide for all uses last year. ICAO and airlines are keen to promote biofuels as solution to their CO2 problems. Greater efficiencies cannot possibly cancel out the impacts on CO2 emissions of the industry's expected rapid, continuous growth. Meaningful measures to curb aviation CO2 emissions would be incompatible with an airline's shareholder profits. The aviation sector hopes to use carbon offsetting (condemned by over 100 civil society groups last year) and biofuels (which, contrary to scientific evidence, continue to be largely classified as zero carbon). There is no possibility of producing the vast quantities of biofuels that would be needed for such an endeavour without disastrous impacts on forests, on the climate, on food prices, food sovereignty, on human rights and land rights. The prospect of even limited use of biofuels in aircraft is particularly concerning, especially if palm oil is used. There will be a new report on 6th October, and a Webinair on 6th October (4pm).
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Climate change: Ministers should be ‘sued’ by “Plan B” over insufficient 2050 CO2 targets
Prof Sir David King, the government's former chief scientist, has said Ministers should tighten the UK's official climate change target - or face the courts. He supports a legal case forcing Ministers to shrink UK CO2 emissions to zero by 2050 - and says the current government goal - an 80% emissions cut by 2050 - is too weak to protect the climate. Ministers have failed to enshrine a 100% cut by 2050 within the Climate Change Act, though it knows what needs to be done. A small group, called "Plan B"(run by former government lawyer Tim Crosland) is taking preliminary legal action against the government. The basis of their case is that the UK is obliged under the Act to tighten CO2 targets if the science shows it is needed. Professor King is backing this legal action. Mr Crosland has written to the Business Secretary (at BEIS) Mr Clark and says if there is no satisfactory reply after 14 days, he will take the case to the High Court for judicial review. The case would be argued in court by Jonathan Crow, a former senior Treasury lawyer. Targets do not on their own reduce emissions, but efforts are needed to ensure Climate Change Act fulfils its purpose. Meeting the CO2 target is made much harder, as the government apparently intends to ignore CCC advice on aviation carbon, allowing it to grow - seriously threatening the 2050 target and the chances of achieving it.
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Offsets can play limited role in reducing aviation CO2 – but there’s poor understanding of their limitations
With the growth in air travel demand forecast to outstrip fuel efficiency improvements, the only hope for the aviation industry’s CO2 emissions goals is if they could be achieved through the purchase of carbon offsets. However, says a new study, there is considerable misunderstanding about offsetting and the difference between scientific and policy perspectives. Offsets are merely a way to cancel out aviation carbon, by nominally assisting other sectors to make actual reductions in carbon emissions. Offsets are just a way of concealing the problem, and giving the impression that aviation is not just adding to global carbon emissions. The study says offsets do not "make emissions ‘go away’ in some miraculous manner" and there is a low level of understanding about the limitations of offsets in reducing global CO2. For example, the influence on the global climate system of additional atmospheric CO2 from the combustion of fossil fuels is not neutralised by offsets in the land sector. As it does not reduce atmospheric concentrations of CO2, carbon offsetting should be seen as a second or even third best option behind technological advances or demand reduction efforts to make the necessary deep cuts in aviation emissions over the long term.
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MEPs place limits on aviation ETS exemption and put airlines on intra-EU flights CO2 reduction path
MEPs have voted to limit the exemption from the EU ETS of flights to and from Europe until 2021, pending further information regarding ICAO's offsetting measure ‘CORSIA’ (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation). It would be much more effective, in limiting aviation CO2 emissions by flights using European airports to have them all included. However, only flights between EU airports are now included in the ETS. But sustainable transport group Transport & Environment (T&E) welcomes this vote saying an indefinite exemption of flights to and from Europe would have been a blank cheque to ICAO. It would have been reckless, as it is not yet known how the CORSIA scheme will operate or how effective it will be. There is still no clarity on CORSIA rules on offset quality and enforcement, for future aviation carbon emissions. "Europe now has a leverage to make aviation contribute to our collective climate efforts as proportionally as other sectors of the EU economy should the global measure fail.” For intra-EU flights, MEPs have also voted to start reducing the cap in CO2 allowances from 2021, thus bringing aviation into line with other sectors covered by the EU ETS scheme. This is an important shift in the EU’s approach to aviation’s climate impact. They are also to look at aviation's non-CO2 impacts, so far ignored.
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Excellent AEF analysis: Why Heathrow’s sustainability strategy “Heathrow 2.0” doesn’t quite cut it
Heathrow produced a plan it calls "Heathrow 2.0" in an attempt to persuade MPs that its hoped for 3rd runway would be environmentally "sustainable" and its carbon emissions would all be offset, producing a "carbon neutral" runway. In a masterful rebuttal of the Heathrow 2.0 document, the AEF (Aviation Environment Federation) sets out clearly why this plan falls very far short of its ambition. It is likely that Heathrow hopes its document will be enough to give MPs who are poorly informed on UK carbon emissions the assurance they need, to vote for a 3rd runway. However, AEF points out that even if the airport itself tries to be "zero carbon", that is only around 3% of the total carbon emitted by all Heathrow flights - so a sideshow. AEF explains how offsetting CO2 emissions by Heathrow planes is not an acceptable way or effective way to deal with the problem. Indeed, this is the advice given consistently by the government's climate advisors, the CCC. Offsets will just not be available in future decades. The Heathrow 2.0 document pins its hopes on the UK plan, CORSIA, but this does not achieve actual cuts in aviation carbon and Heathrow has no plans to do anything practical to cut emissions. The key problem is that the UK has no strategy for limiting aviation emissions to a level consistent with our obligations on climate change, though the CCC and the EAC have repeatedly asked for one.
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Blog by Cait Hewitt (AEF): Is global aviation climate policy heading in the right direction?
Cait Hewitt, Deputy Director of the Aviation Environment Federation looks at aviation emissions and whether we’re on course to tackle them. Nobody knows yet whether the ICAO agreement to implement a Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) beginning in 2020 will be at all effective in limiting aviation CO2 emissions. It depends on the unsatisfactory process of "offsetting" emissions from planes, using real CO2 cuts made by other sectors. At present, CORSIA is far less ambitious than the 2015 Paris Agreement. Cait asks: "...does carbon offsetting offer an effective response to the global climate challenge, as its advocates argue, or is it merely a way of putting off difficult decisions?" The UK’s statutory advisory body, the Committee on Climate Change, has advised that market based measures should be seen as only a short to medium term solution for tackling aviation emissions, arguing that the sector should be preparing for deep cuts in its own emissions. Analysis suggests that achieving the Paris Agreement will require our economies to be zero emissions by 2070. However the UK government plans a huge expansion of the aviation sector, with Heathrow's claimed economic benefits calculated over 60 years. The does not seem compatible with zero carbon by 2070. Cait: "We have yet to have a public or political conversation about what that could mean for the role of flying in our economies and our lives."
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DfT launches consultation on its Aviation Strategy, out to 2050 – closes 13th October
The DfT has launched - for consultation - its plans to develop a new UK Aviation Strategy, "to help shape the future of the aviation industry to 2050 and beyond." The DfT strategy is to support future growth in the aviation industry (which it claims "directly supports 240,000 jobs and contributes at least £22 billion to the UK economy each year." With no mention of the money it takes out of the UK too ...] One issue is possible new forms of compensation for noise or designing targets for noise reduction. The document looks at how all airports across the country can make best use of existing capacity, and expand the industry. Chris Grayling said: "Our new aviation strategy will look beyond the new runway at Heathrow and sets out a comprehensive long-term plan for UK aviation. .... [it] also recognises the need to address the impacts of aviation on communities and the environment." The consultation closes on 13th October. ie. a large part of it is over the summer holiday period. On environment it just says the strategy "will look at how to achieve the right balance between more flights and ensuring action is taken to tackle carbon emissions, noise and air quality." Consultations on various aspects of the strategy will run throughout 2017 and 2018 and will be followed by the publication of the final aviation strategy by the end of 2018.
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Time to upgrade Europe’s aviation pollution rules – it should not be allowed to risk the Paris agreement
The European Parliament’s environment committee (ENVI) has voted on how the aviation sector should be treated under the EU’s Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), in response to a decision by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) to set up a global offsetting mechanism. The ongoing revision of Europe’s carbon market rules for aviation is a critical opportunity to ensure that one of the biggest global polluters starts to contribute its fair share to EU climate action. While the term ‘sustainable aviation’ seems to be spreading, the reality is that the sector’s emissions are growing unsustainably and will continue to do so. Even if the global aviation deal is fully implemented and enforced, it will not curb the industry’s rising emissions. Though just intra-EU flights are included in the EU ETS, unlike other sectors – aviation is not expected to annually reduce its emissions. Add the fact that the industry is exempt from fuel taxes, VAT or legally-binding fuel efficiency requirements, and it becomes clear aviation enjoys very special treatment. While greenhouse gas emissions from all other sectors in the EU carbon market fell in 2016, those from aviation grew by 8%. This risks putting the goals of the Paris climate agreement out of reach. With no quick solutions in sight, the sector needs to pay a real price for its pollution. A high enough carbon price would help.